The elderly population in America is growing in size owing to declining death rates, increasing life expectancy, and the aging of the baby boomers. Although the prevalence of chronic illness and disability increases with age, successful aging in the elderly population is widespread, and the elderly are generally healthy. Indeed, the prevalence of disability among the elderly is declining, and expenditures for their care are increasingly concentrated at the end of life rather than during extra years of relatively healthy life. Nevertheless, health care costs will undoubtedly increase during the next 30 years as a result of the baby boomers entering late life. The economic and social impact of future growing health care expenditures for the elderly will be significant. Important policy issues will include the continued viability of the Medicare and Social Security programs, future needs for long-term care, improvement of the health status of the elderly, technological advances, the need for a geriatric work force, and development of viable strategies to pay for escalating medical care costs.

Abstract

Objectives. This paper describes the methodology for estimating the present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE) for the year 2000.

Methods. Estimation takes into account life expectancy by gender and age group, percent of people in the labor force or keeping house, current pattern of earnings at successive ages, an imputed value for household production, and the discount rate.

Results. At a discount rate of 3 percent, males and females aged 20-24 have the highest PVLE — $1,517,045 and $1,085,188 respectively. Lifetime earnings for men are higher than for women. Higher discount rates yield lower values at all ages.

Conclusions. The present value of lifetime earnings yields useful estimates of the valueof life. These estimates are conservative compared with other approaches.