Despite global advocacy efforts, journalism remains a dangerous profession in many parts of the world. While independent media sometimes manage to operate within authoritarian systems, this coexistence is often precarious. Autocrats may tolerate limited press freedom, but only so long as it does not threaten their grip on power. To control the flow of information and minimize public backlash, many modern autocracies rely on selective, surgical forms of media repression. This dissertation investigates the strategies, consequences, and public perceptions of such targeted repression, with a focus on contemporary Eurasia.
This project draws on three original sources of data: (1) a comprehensive corpus of over 1.3 million articles published by twelve independent Russian media outlets between 2011 and 2022; (2) a detailed database of more than 1,000 repressive incidents reported by media professionals in Russia during the same period; and (3) novel experimental survey data collected in Kazakhstan. Using these data, the dissertation brings together three empirical papers to investigate how authoritarian governments do more than just punish dissent -- they also work to manage the visibility of repression, reduce the likelihood of public backlash, and shape how journalists operate over time.
The first paper theorizes and documents how regimes may delay repression in response to journalistic transgressions. Using hand-labeled articles, natural language processing (NLP), and large language models (LLMs), it shows that while publishing sensitive content increases the risk of repression, the timing of these publications does not predict the timing of state retaliation. These findings support the idea that governments may deliberately postpone repression to obscure political motives and maintain plausible deniability.
The second paper turns to public perception, using a survey experiment to test how the timing and framing of repression shapes citizens’ reactions. Participants were exposed to scenarios in which a journalist faced state punishment after publishing critical content, with the timing and framing of the response experimentally varied. Results suggest that disguised repression reduces respondents’ ability to recognize it as politically motivated and weakens expressions of solidarity with the targeted journalist -- highlighting how subtle repression may mute public dissent.
The third paper investigates how repression alters journalistic output. By combining byline-level publication records with data on reported attacks, it evaluates how both direct repression and repression observed within professional networks affect journalists’ productivity, the sensitivity of their reporting, and the tone and specificity of their coverage. The results show that both types of repression lead to a decline in article output and sensitive content, pointing to self-censorship and adaptation in response to risk. The analysis also reveals that journalists embedded in more collaborative networks may experience greater disruption after repression -- suggesting that while networks can offer support, they can also amplify the chilling effects of targeted attacks.
Together, the three papers contribute to the study of authoritarian communication, political repression, and media control by shedding light on how autocrats manage the flow of information. The dissertation blends theory-building with a multi-method empirical approach, drawing from political science, communication studies, and computational tools. Beyond its academic contributions, the findings offer practical insights for those working in media development, policymaking, and advocacy in repressive settings.