Understanding the functions of multi-cellular organs in terms of the molecular networks within each cell is an important step in the quest to predict phenotype from genotype. B-lymphocyte population dynamics, which are predictive of immune response and vaccine effectiveness, are determined by individual cells undergoing division or death seemingly stochastically. Based on tracking single-cell time-lapse trajectories of hundreds of B cells, single-cell transcriptome, and immunofluorescence analyses, we constructed an agent-based multi-modular computational model to simulate lymphocyte population dynamics in terms of the molecular networks that control NF-κB signaling, the cell cycle, and apoptosis. Combining modeling and experimentation, we found that NF-κB cRel enforces the execution of a cellular decision between mutually exclusive fates by promoting survival in growing cells. But as cRel deficiency causes growing B cells to die at similar rates to non-growing cells, our analysis reveals that the phenomenological decision model of wild-type cells is rooted in a biased race of cell fates. We show that a multi-scale modeling approach allows for the prediction of dynamic organ-level physiology in terms of intra-cellular molecular networks.

The CD8+ T-cell is a key mediator of antiviral immunity, potentially contributing to control of pathogenic lentiviral infection through both innate and adaptive mechanisms. We studied viral dynamics during antiretroviral treatment of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infected rhesus macaques following CD8+ T-cell depletion to test the importance of adaptive cytotoxic effects in clearance of cells productively infected with SIV. As previously described, plasma viral load (VL) increased following CD8+ T-cell depletion and was proportional to the magnitude of CD8+ T-cell depletion in the GALT, confirming a direct relationship between CD8+ T-cell loss and viral replication. Surprisingly, first phase plasma virus decay following administration of antiretroviral drugs was not slower in CD8+ T-cell depleted animals compared with controls indicating that the short lifespan of the average productively infected cell is not a reflection of cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) killing. Our findings support a dominant role for non-cytotoxic effects of CD8+ T-cells on control of pathogenic lentiviral infection and suggest that cytotoxic effects, if present, are limited to early, pre-productive stages of the viral life cycle. These observations have important implications for future strategies to augment immune control of HIV.