Objectives

Current estimates of aortic stenosis (AS) frequency have mostly relied on cross-sectional echocardiographic or longitudinal administrative data, making understanding of AS burden incomplete. We performed case adjudications to evaluate the frequency of AS and assess differences by age, sex and race in an older cohort with long-term follow-up.

Methods

We developed case-capture methods using study echocardiograms, procedure and diagnosis codes, heart failure events and deaths for targeted review of medical records in the Cardiovascular Health Study to identify moderate or severe AS and related procedures or hospitalisations. The primary outcome was clinically significant AS (severe AS or procedure). Assessment of incident AS burden was based on subdistribution survival methods, while associations with age, sex and race relied on cause-specific survival methods.

Results

The cohort comprised 5795 participants (age 73±6, 42.2% male, 14.3% Black). Cumulative frequency of clinically significant AS at maximal 25-year follow-up was 3.69% (probable/definite) to 4.67% (possible/probable/definite), while the corresponding 20-year cumulative incidence was 2.88% to 3.71%. Of incident cases, about 85% had a hospitalisation for severe AS, but roughly half did not undergo valve intervention. The adjusted incidence of clinically significant AS was higher in men (HR 1.62 [95% CI 1.21 to 2.17]) and increased with age (HR 1.08 [95% CI 1.04 to 1.11]), but was lower in Blacks (HR 0.43 [95% CI 0.23 to 0.81]).

Conclusions

In this community-based study, we identified a higher burden of clinically significant AS than reported previously, with differences by age, sex and race. These findings have important implications for public health resource planning, although the lower burden in Blacks merits further study.

Background

Elevated fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) concentrations are associated with greater risk of cardiovascular events and mortality, especially among people with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Because individuals with CKD are at an increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD), we sought to understand whether FGF-23 level is a stronger risk factor for SCD versus non-SCD.

Study design

Cohort study.

Setting & participants

3,244 participants 65 years or older in the community-based Cardiovascular Health Study.

Predictor

Plasma FGF-23 concentrations.

Outcomes

We assessed SCD and non-SCD in these analyses. SCD was adjudicated rigorously and was defined as a sudden pulseless condition of cardiac origin in a previously stable person occurring out of hospital or in the emergency department.

Measurements

We estimated associations of baseline FGF-23 concentrations with SCD and non-SCD using Cox proportional hazards models after adjustment for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, comorbid conditions, and kidney function. We also tested whether associations differed by CKD status.

Results

During a median follow-up of 8.1 years, there were 118 adjudicated SCD and 570 non-SCD events. After multivariable adjustment for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, comorbid conditions, and parameters of kidney function, higher FGF-23 concentrations were an independent risk factor for non-SCD (HR [per doubling], 1.17; 95% CI, 1.06-1.30). However, elevated FGF-23 concentrations were not associated independently with SCD (HR [per doubling], 1.07; 95% CI, 0.85-1.35). In stratified analysis by CKD status (36.5% of cohort), doubling of FGF-23 concentrations was associated independently with non-SCD (adjusted HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.10-1.45). A similar magnitude of association was observed between FGF-23 level and SCD in the CKD subgroup; however, it was not significant (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.89-1.62).

Limitations

Limited power to detect moderate-sized effects between FGF-23 level and SCD in both the primary and stratified analyses.

Conclusions

In this population-based study, FGF-23 level elevations were associated independently with non-SCD. Among individuals with CKD, the associations between FGF-23 level and SCD and non-SCD were similar.

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) prediction models have unclear clinical utility given the absence of AF prevention therapies and the immutability of many risk factors. Premature atrial contractions (PACs) play a critical role in AF pathogenesis and may be modifiable.

Objective

To investigate whether PAC count improves model performance for AF risk.

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Setting

4 U.S. communities.

Patients

A random subset of 1260 adults without prevalent AF enrolled in the Cardiovascular Health Study between 1989 and 1990.

Measurements

The PAC count was quantified by 24-hour electrocardiography. Participants were followed for the diagnosis of incident AF or death. The Framingham AF risk algorithm was used as the comparator prediction model.

Results

In adjusted analyses, doubling the hourly PAC count was associated with a significant increase in AF risk (hazard ratio, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.13 to 1.22]; P < 0.001) and overall mortality (hazard ratio, 1.06 [CI, 1.03 to 1.09]; P < 0.001). Compared with the Framingham model, PAC count alone resulted in similar AF risk discrimination at 5 and 10 years of follow-up and superior risk discrimination at 15 years. The addition of PAC count to the Framingham model resulted in significant 10-year AF risk discrimination improvement (c-statistic, 0.65 vs. 0.72; P < 0.001), net reclassification improvement (23.2% [CI, 12.8% to 33.6%]; P < 0.001), and integrated discrimination improvement (5.6% [CI, 4.2% to 7.0%]; P < 0.001). The specificity for predicting AF at 15 years exceeded 90% for PAC counts more than 32 beats/h.

Limitation

This study does not establish a causal link between PACs and AF.

Conclusion

The addition of PAC count to a validated AF risk algorithm provides superior AF risk discrimination and significantly improves risk reclassification. Further study is needed to determine whether PAC modification can prospectively reduce AF risk.

Primary funding source

American Heart Association, Joseph Drown Foundation, and National Institutes of Health.

Background

Fatty acids provide energy and structural substrates for the heart and brain and may influence resuscitation from sudden cardiac arrest (SCA). We investigated whether genetic variation in fatty acid metabolism pathways was associated with SCA survival.

Methods and results

Subjects (mean age, 67 years; 80% male, white) were out-of-hospital SCA patients found in ventricular fibrillation in King County, WA. We compared subjects who survived to hospital admission (n=664) with those who did not (n=689), and subjects who survived to hospital discharge (n=334) with those who did not (n=1019). Associations between survival and genetic variants were assessed using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, location, time to arrival of paramedics, whether the event was witnessed, and receipt of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Within-gene permutation tests were used to correct for multiple comparisons. Variants in 5 genes were significantly associated with SCA survival. After correction for multiple comparisons, single-nucleotide polymorphisms in ACSL1 and ACSL3 were significantly associated with survival to hospital admission. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms in ACSL3, AGPAT3, MLYCD, and SLC27A6 were significantly associated with survival to hospital discharge.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that variants in genes important in fatty acid metabolism are associated with SCA survival in this population.

Several reports have demonstrated that prolongation of the QT interval is associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, it is unknown whether any of the components within the QT interval are responsible for its association with SCD. We examined the association of the individual QT-interval components (R-wave onset to R-peak, R-peak to R-wave end, ST-segment, T-wave onset to T-peak, and T-peak to T-wave end) with SCD in 12 241 participants (54±5.7 years; 26% black; 55% women) from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities). The QT interval and its components were measured at baseline (1987-1989) from 12-lead ECGs. SCD cases were adjudicated by a group of physicians through December 31, 2012. During a median follow-up of 23.6 years, a total of 346 cases of SCD were identified. Although prolongation of the QT interval was associated with a 49% increased risk of SCD (hazard ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-2.18), only the T-wave onset to T-peak component (per 1-SD increase: hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.34) was associated with SCD and not any of the other components in separate models. When all of the QT-interval components were included in the same model, T-wave onset to T-peak remained the strongest predictor of SCD (per 1-SD increase: hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.37). The risk of SCD with the QT interval is driven by prolongation of the T-wave onset to T-peak component. This suggests that shifting the focus from the overall QT interval to its individual components will refine SCD prediction in the community.

AIMS: Little is known about associations of trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO), a novel gut microbiota-generated metabolite of dietary phosphatidylcholine and carnitine, and its changes over time with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the general population or in different race/ethnicity groups. The study aimed to investigate associations of serially measured plasma TMAO levels and changes in TMAO over time with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a multi-ethnic community-based cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 6,785 adults from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. TMAO was measured at baseline and year 5 using mass spectrometry. Primary outcomes were adjudicated all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Secondary outcomes were deaths due to kidney failure, cancer, or dementia obtained from death certificates. Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying TMAO and covariates assessed the associations with adjustment for sociodemographics, lifestyles, diet, metabolic factors, and comorbidities. During a median follow-up of 16.9 years, 1704 participants died and 411 from CVD. Higher TMAO levels associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-1.17], CVD mortality (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.00-1.09), and death due to kidney failure (HR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.25-1.66) per inter-quintile range, but not deaths due to cancer or dementia. Annualized changes in TMAO levels associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.05-1.14) and death due to kidney failure (HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.26-1.89) but not other deaths. CONCLUSION: Plasma TMAO levels were positively associated with mortality, especially deaths due to cardiovascular and renal disease, in a multi-ethnic US cohort.

Background

Sudden cardiac arrest has been linked independently both to stressful neighborhood conditions and to polymorphisms in the ADRB2 gene. The ADRB2 gene mediates sympathetic activation in response to stress. Therefore, if neighborhood conditions cause cardiac arrest through the stress pathway, the ADRB2 variant may modify the association between neighborhood conditions, such as socioeconomic deprivation and incidence of cardiac arrest.

Methods

The Cardiac Arrest Blood Study Repository is a population-based repository of specimens and other data from adult cardiac arrest patients residing in King County, Washington. Cases (n = 1,539) were 25- to 100-year-old individuals of European descent who experienced out-of-hospital cardiac arrest from 1988 to 2004. Interactions between neighborhood conditions and the ADRB2 genotype on cardiac arrest risk were assessed in a case-only study design. Gene-environment independence was assessed in blood samples obtained from King County residents initially contacted by random-digit dialing.

Results

Fewer than 4% of study subjects resided in socioeconomically deprived neighborhoods. Nonetheless, the case-only analysis indicated the presence of supramultiplicative interaction of socioeconomic deprivation and the homozygous Gln27Glu variant (case-only odds ratio: 1.8 [95% confidence interval: 1.0, 2.9]). Interactions between population density and the homozygous Gln27Glu variant were weaker (case-only odds ratio: 1.2 [95% confidence interval: 0.97, 1.5]).

Conclusions

Findings support a supramultiplicative interaction between the Gln27Glu ADRB2 variant and socioeconomic deprivation among individuals of European descent. This result is consistent with the hypothesis that the elevation in cardiac arrest risk associated with socioeconomic deprivation operates through the stress pathway.

Background

Studies of patients presenting for catheter ablation suggest that premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) are a modifiable risk factor for congestive heart failure (CHF). The relationship among PVC frequency, incident CHF, and mortality in the general population remains unknown.

Objectives

The goal of this study was to determine whether PVC frequency ascertained using a 24-h Holter monitor is a predictor of a decrease in the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), incident CHF, and death in a population-based cohort.

Methods

We studied 1,139 Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) participants who were randomly assigned to 24-h ambulatory electrocardiography (Holter) monitoring and who had a normal LVEF and no history of CHF. PVC frequency was quantified using Holter studies, and LVEF was measured from baseline and 5-year echocardiograms. Participants were followed for incident CHF and death.

Results

Those in the upper quartile versus the lowest quartile of PVC frequency had a multivariable-adjusted, 3-fold greater odds of a 5-year decrease in LVEF (odds ratio [OR]: 3.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.42 to 6.77; p = 0.005), a 48% increased risk of incident CHF (HR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.08 to 2.04; p = 0.02), and a 31% increased risk of death (HR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.63; p = 0.01) during a median follow-up of >13 years. Similar statistically significant results were observed for PVCs analyzed as a continuous variable. The specificity for the 15-year risk of CHF exceeded 90% when PVCs included at least 0.7% of ventricular beats. The population-level risk for incident CHF attributed to PVCs was 8.1% (95% CI: 1.2% to 14.9%).

Conclusions

In a population-based sample, a higher frequency of PVCs was associated with a decrease in LVEF, an increase in incident CHF, and increased mortality. Because of the capacity to prevent PVCs through medical or ablation therapy, PVCs may represent a modifiable risk factor for CHF and death.

Whether genetic factors influence the associations of fatty acids with the risk of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) is largely unknown. To investigate possible gene-fatty acid interactions on SCA risk, we used a case-only approach and measured fatty acids in erythrocyte samples from 1869 SCA cases in a population-based repository with genetic data. We selected 191 SNP in ENCODE-identified regulatory regions of fifty-five candidate genes in fatty acid metabolic pathways. Using linear regression and additive genetic models, we investigated the association of the selected SNP with erythrocyte levels of fatty acids, including DHA, EPA and trans-fatty acids among the SCA cases. The assumption of no association in non-cases was supported by analysis of publicly available datasets containing over 8000 samples. None of the SNP-fatty acid associations tested among the cases reached statistical significance after correction for multiple comparisons. One SNP, rs4654990 near PLA2G2A, with an allele frequency of 0·33, was nominally associated with lower levels of DHA and EPA and higher levels of trans-fatty acids. The strongest association was with DHA levels (exponentiated coefficient for one unit (1 % of total fatty acids), 0·90, 95 % CI 0·85, 0·97; P = 0·003), indicating that for subjects with a coded allele, the OR of SCA associated with one unit higher DHA is about 90 % what it is for subjects with one fewer coded allele. These findings suggest that the associations of circulating n-3 and trans-fatty acids with SCA risk may be more pronounced in carriers of the rs4654990 G allele.

BACKGROUND: Effects of animal source foods (ASF) on atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and underlying mechanisms remain controversial. We investigated prospective associations of different ASF with incident ASCVD and potential mediation by gut microbiota-generated trimethylamine N-oxide, its L-carnitine-derived intermediates γ-butyrobetaine and crotonobetaine, and traditional ASCVD risk pathways. METHODS: Among 3931 participants from a community-based US cohort aged 65+ years, ASF intakes and trimethylamine N-oxide-related metabolites were measured serially over time. Incident ASCVD (myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke, other atherosclerotic death) was adjudicated over 12.5 years median follow-up. Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying exposures and covariates examined ASF-ASCVD associations; and additive hazard models, mediation proportions by different risk pathways. RESULTS: After multivariable-adjustment, higher intakes of unprocessed red meat, total meat, and total ASF associated with higher ASCVD risk, with hazard ratios (95% CI) per interquintile range of 1.15 (1.01-1.30), 1.22 (1.07-1.39), and 1.18 (1.03-1.34), respectively. Trimethylamine N-oxide-related metabolites together significantly mediated these associations, with mediation proportions (95% CI) of 10.6% (1.0-114.5), 7.8% (1.0-32.7), and 9.2% (2.2-44.5), respectively. Processed meat intake associated with a nonsignificant trend toward higher ASCVD (1.11 [0.98-1.25]); intakes of fish, poultry, and eggs were not significantly associated. Among other risk pathways, blood glucose, insulin, and C-reactive protein, but not blood pressure or blood cholesterol, each significantly mediated the total meat-ASCVD association. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, community-based cohort, higher meat intake associated with incident ASCVD, partly mediated by microbiota-derived metabolites of L-carnitine, abundant in red meat. These novel findings support biochemical links between dietary meat, gut microbiome pathways, and ASCVD.