Social disorganization theory holds that neighborhoods with a greater population stability, higher socio-economic status and more ethnic homogeneity experience less disorder because these neighborhoods have higher social cohesion and exercise more social control. Recent extensions of the theory argue that disorder in turn affects these structural characteristics and mechanisms. Using a dataset on 74 neighborhoods in the city of Utrecht in the Netherlands spanning ten years, we tested the extended theory, which to date only few studies have been able to do because of unavailability of neighborhood-level longitudinal data. We also improve on previous studies by distinguishing between potential for social control (feelings of responsibility) and actual social control behavior. Cross-sectional analyses replicate earlier findings, but the results of longitudinal cross-lagged models suggest that disorder has large consequences for subsequent levels of social control and population turnover, thus leading to more disorder. This is in contrast to previous research, which sees disorder more as a consequence than a cause. This study underlines the importance of longitudinal data, allowing for simultaneously testing the causes and consequences of disorder, as well as the importance of breaking down social control into the potential for social control and actual social control behavior.

Social disorganization theory holds that neighborhoods with greater residential stability, higher socioeconomic status, and more ethnic homogeneity experience less disorder because these neighborhoods have higher social cohesion and exercise more social control. Recent extensions of the theory argue that disorder in turn affects these structural characteristics and mechanisms. Using a data set on 74 neighborhoods in the city of Utrecht in the Netherlands spanning 10 years, we tested the extended theory, which to date only a few studies have been able to do because of the unavailability of neighborhood-level longitudinal data. We also improve on previous studies by distinguishing between the potential for social control (feelings of responsibility) and the actual social control behavior. Cross-sectional analyses replicate earlier findings, but the results of longitudinal cross-lagged models suggest that disorder has large consequences for subsequent levels of social control and residential instability, thus leading to more disorder. This is in contrast to most previous studies, which assume disorder to be more a consequence than a cause. This study underlines the importance of longitudinal data, allowing for simultaneously testing the causes and consequences of disorder, as well as the importance of breaking down social control into the two dimensions of the potential for social control and the actual social control behavior. © 2011 American Society of Criminology.

Using a longitudinal data set of 317 neighborhoods from 1996 to 2002 in Utrecht, The Netherlands, this study tests whether types of crime differentially impact (a) the mechanisms of social disorganization theory and (b) residents’ mobility behavior and attitudes toward the neighborhood. Neighborhoods with more cohesion have less violence 2 years later. Also, neighborhoods perceiving more violence experience lower levels of cohesion 2 years later. Higher levels of perceived violence were most important for explaining who moves out of the neighborhood, as such neighborhoods had more non-Whites and more lower income households at the next time point. Burglaries (a crime that occurs in private space) appear to increase residents’ sense of feeling responsibility for the neighborhood.