BACKGROUND: A recent meta-analysis revealed that vagally mediated heart rate variability (vmHRV; a biomarker of emotion regulation capacity) significantly decreases in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle. As two follow-up studies suggest, these vmHRV decreases are driven primarily by increased luteal progesterone (P4). However, analyses also revealed significant interindividual differences in vmHRV reactivity to the cycle, which is in line with longstanding evidence for interindividual differences in mood sensitivity to the cycle. The present study begins to investigate whether these interindividual differences in vmHRV cyclicity can explain who is at higher risk of showing premenstrual emotional changes. We expected a greater degree of midluteal vmHRV decrease to be predictive of a greater premenstrual increase in negative affect. METHODS: We conducted an observational study with a naturally cycling community sample (N = 31, M = 26.03 years). Over a span of six weeks, participants completed (a) daily ratings of negative affect and (b) counterbalanced lab visits in their ovulatory, midluteal, and perimenstrual phases. Lab visits were scheduled based on positive ovulation tests and included assessments of baseline vmHRV and salivary ovarian steroid levels. RESULTS: In line with previous research, multilevel models suggest that most of the sample shows ovulatory-to-midluteal vmHRV decreases which, however, were not associated with premenstrual emotional changes. Interestingly, it was only the subgroup with luteal increases in vmHRV whose negative affect markedly worsened premenstrually and improved postmenstrually. CONCLUSION: The present study begins to investigate cyclical changes in vmHRV as a potential biomarker of mood sensitivity to the menstrual cycle. The results demonstrate a higher level of complexity in these associations than initially expected, given that only atypical midluteal increases in vmHRV are associated with greater premenstrual negative affect. Potential underlying mechanisms are discussed, among those the possibility that luteal vmHRV increases index compensatory efforts to regulate emotion in those with greater premenstrual negative affect. However, future studies with larger and clinical samples and more granular vmHRV assessments should build on these findings and further explore associations between vmHRV cyclicity and menstrually related mood changes.