Background & aims

Inpatients with cirrhosis have high rates of acute-on-chronic failure (ACLF) development and high mortality within 30 days of admission to the hospital. Better biomarkers are needed to predict these outcomes. We performed metabolomic analyses of serum samples from patients with cirrhosis at multiple centers to determine whether metabolite profiles might identify patients at high risk for ACLF and death.

Methods

We performed metabolomic analyses, using liquid chromatography, of serum samples collected at time of admission to 12 North American tertiary hepatology centers from 602 patients in the North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease sites from 2015 through 2017 (mean age, 56 years; 61% men; mean model for end-stage liver disease score, 19.5). We performed analysis of covariance, adjusted for model for end-stage liver disease at time of hospital admission, serum levels of albumin and sodium, and white blood cell count, to identify metabolites that differed between patients who did vs did not develop ACLF and patients who did vs did not die during hospitalization and within 30 days. We performed random forest analysis to identify specific metabolite(s) that were associated with outcomes and area under the curve (AUC) analyses to analyze them in context of clinical parameters. We analyzed microbiomes of stool samples collected from 133 patients collected at the same time and examined associations with serum metabolites.

Results

Of the 602 patients analyzed, 88 developed ACLF (15%), 43 died in the hospital (7%), and 72 died within 30 days (12%). Increased levels of compounds of microbial origin (aromatic compounds, secondary or sulfated bile acids, and benzoate) and estrogen metabolites, as well as decreased levels of phospholipids, were associated with development of ACLF, inpatient, and 30-day mortality and were also associated with fecal microbiomes. Random forest analysis and logistic regression showed that levels of specific microbially produced metabolites identified patients who developed ACLF with an AUC of 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.88; P = .001), patients who died while in the hospital with an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.74-0.85; P = .002), and patients who died within 30 days with an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81; P = .02). The metabolites were significantly additive to clinical parameters for predicting these outcomes. Metabolites associated with outcomes were also correlated with microbiomes of stool samples.

Conclusions

In an analysis of serum metabolites and fecal microbiomes of patients hospitalized with cirrhosis at multiple centers, we associated metabolites of microbial origin and lipid moieties with development of ACLF and death as an inpatient or within 30 days, after controlling for clinical features.

Background and aims

Acute kidney injury (AKI) has a poor prognosis in cirrhosis. Given the variability of creatinine, the prediction of AKI and dialysis by other markers is needed. The aim of this study is to determine the role of serum and urine metabolomics in the prediction of AKI and dialysis in an inpatient cirrhosis cohort.

Approach and results

Inpatients with cirrhosis from 11 North American Consortium of End-stage Liver Disease centers who provided admission serum/urine when they were AKI and dialysis-free were included. Analysis of covariance adjusted for demographics, infection, and cirrhosis severity was performed to identify metabolites that differed among patients (1) who developed AKI or not; (2) required dialysis or not; and/pr (3) within AKI subgroups who needed dialysis or not. We performed random forest and AUC analyses to identify specific metabolite(s) associated with outcomes. Logistic regression with clinical variables with/without metabolites was performed. A total of 602 patients gave serum (218 developed AKI, 80 needed dialysis) and 435 gave urine (164 developed AKI, 61 needed dialysis). For AKI prediction, clinical factor-adjusted AUC was 0.91 for serum and 0.88 for urine. Major metabolites such as uremic toxins (2,3-dihydroxy-5-methylthio-4-pentenoic acid [DMTPA], N2N2dimethylguanosine, uridine/pseudouridine) and tryptophan/tyrosine metabolites (kynunerate, 8-methoxykyunerate, quinolinate) were higher in patients who developed AKI. For dialysis prediction, clinical factor-adjusted AUC was 0.93 for serum and 0.91 for urine. Similar metabolites as AKI were altered here. For dialysis prediction in those with AKI, the AUC was 0.81 and 0.79 for serum/urine. Lower branched-chain amino-acid (BCAA) metabolites but higher cysteine, tryptophan, glutamate, and DMTPA were seen in patients with AKI needing dialysis. Serum/urine metabolites were additive to clinical variables for all outcomes.

Conclusions

Specific admission urinary and serum metabolites were significantly additive to clinical variables to predict AKI development and dialysis initiation in inpatients with cirrhosis. These observations can potentially facilitate earlier initiation of renoprotective measures.