Background

Vulnerability of younger women to human papillomavirus 16 (HPV16) infection has been attributed to the predominance of ectocervical columnar epithelia in this age group. However, squamous metaplastic tissue may be more influential. We examined the extent of ectopy and metaplastic activity as risks for HPV16 acquisition in a prospective cohort.

Methods

Participants were HPV16 negative at the first two visits. Follow-up occurred every 4 months. Ectopy was quantitatively measured on colpophotographs. We calculated metaplastic rate as the difference in ectopy between visits. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed, adjusting for several covariates.

Results

Analyses included 198 women (mean baseline age 17 years) for 1734 visits. Mean follow-up was 4.4 years. Incident HPV16 was detected in 36 (18%) women. Metaplastic rate between the two visits before HPV16 detection was significantly associated with incident infection (hazard ratio [HR], 1.17; confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.33; P = .02). However, ectopy was not significant, whether measured before or concurrent to HPV16 detection (HR range, 0.99-1.00; CI range, .97-1.02; P range, .47-.65).

Conclusions

Dynamic metaplasia rather than the sheer extent of ectopy appears to increase risk for incident HPV16 in healthy young women. This in vivo observation is consistent with the HPV life cycle, during which host cell replication and differentiation supports viral replication.

Background

The morbidity and mortality from asthma have markedly increased since the late 1970s. The hospitalization rate, an important marker of asthma severity, remains substantial.

Methods

In adults with health care access, we prospectively studied 242 with asthma, aged 18-50 years, recruited from a random sample of allergy and pulmonary physician practices in Northern California to identify risk factors for subsequent hospitalization.

Results

Thirty-nine subjects (16%) reported hospitalization for asthma during the 18-month follow-up period. On controlling for asthma severity in multiple logistic regression analysis, non-white race (odds ratio [OR], 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-8.8) and lower income (OR, 1.1 per $10,000 decrement; 95% CI, 0.9-1.3) were associated with a higher risk of asthma hospitalization. The severity-of-asthma score (OR, 3.4 per 5 points; 95%, CI 1.7-6.8) and recent asthma hospitalization (OR, 8.3; 95%, CI, 2.1-33.4) were also related to higher risk, after adjusting for demographic characteristics. Reliance on emergency department services for urgent asthma care was also associated with a greater likelihood of hospitalization (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.0-9.8). In multivariate analysis not controlling for asthma severity, low income was even more strongly related to hospitalization (OR, 1.2 per $10,000 decrement; 95% CI, 1.02-1.4).

Conclusion

In adult asthmatics with access to health care, non-white race, low income, and greater asthma severity were associated with a higher risk of hospitalization. Targeted interventions applied to high-risk asthma patients may reduce asthma morbidity and mortality.

Background

While racial/ethnic survival disparities have been described in pediatric oncology, the impact of income has not been extensively explored. We analyzed how public insurance influences 5-year overall survival (OS) in young patients with sarcomas.

Methods

The University of California San Francisco Cancer Registry was used to identify patients aged 0-39 diagnosed with bone or soft tissue sarcomas between 2000 and 2015. Low-income patients were defined as those with no insurance or Medicaid, a means-tested form of public insurance. Survival curves were computed using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank tests and Cox models. Causal mediation was used to assess whether the association between public insurance and mortality is mediated by metastatic disease.

Results

Of 1106 patients, 39% patients were classified as low-income. Low-income patients were more likely to be racial/ethnic minorities and to present with metastatic disease (OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.35-2.86). Low-income patients had significantly worse OS (61% vs 71%). Age at diagnosis and extent of disease at diagnosis were also independent predictors of OS. When stratified by extent of disease, low-income patients consistently had significantly worse OS (localized: 78% vs 84%, regional: 64% vs 73%, metastatic: 23% vs 30%, respectively). Mediation analysis indicated that metastatic disease at diagnosis mediated 15% of the effect of public insurance on OS.

Conclusions

Low-income patients with bone and soft tissue sarcomas had decreased OS regardless of disease stage at presentation. The mechanism by which insurance status impacts survival requires additional investigation, but may be through reduced access to care.

Objective

To examine health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and depression among participants in an international Sjögren's syndrome (SS) registry, comparing those with and without SS.

Methods

Cross-sectional study of participants in the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) registry. The 2016 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism SS classification criteria were used to determine disease status. HRQoL was assessed using the Short Form 12, version 2 Health Survey to derive scores for physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS). Depression was assessed using the 9-Item Patient Health Questionnaire. Multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of HRQoL and depression while controlling for potential confounders.

Results

Among 2401 SICCA participants who had symptoms of dry eyes and dry mouth, 1051 had SS (44%) and 1350 did not (56%). After controlling for confounders, when compared with non-SS participants, those with SS had better PCS (p<0.001, β=2.43, 95% CI 1.57 to 3.29), MCS (p=0.002, β=1.37, 95% CI 0.50 to 2.23) and lower adjusted odds of depression (p<0.001, OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.81). Other significant predictors of HRQoL and depression included employment, country of residence and use of medication with anticholinergic effect or for management of SS-related signs and symptoms.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that among symptomatic patients, having a diagnosis of SS may be associated with better emotional and psychological well-being compared with patients without a diagnosis. Having a definitive diagnosis of SS may encourage patients to obtain a better understanding of their disease and have coping mechanisms in place to better manage their symptoms.

Background and aims

The American Academy of Pediatrics describes late preterm infants, born at 34 to 36 completed weeks' gestation, as at-risk for rehospitalization and severe morbidity as compared to term infants. While there are prediction models that focus on specific morbidities, there is limited research on risk prediction for early readmission in late preterm infants. The aim of this study is to derive and validate a model to predict 7-day readmission.

Methods

This is a population-based retrospective cohort study of liveborn infants in California between January 2007 to December 2011. Birth certificates, maintained by California Vital Statistics, were linked to a hospital discharge, emergency department, and ambulatory surgery records maintained by the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development. Random forest and logistic regression were used to identify maternal and infant variables of importance, test for association, and develop and validate a predictive model. The predictive model was evaluated for discrimination and calibration.

Results

We restricted the sample to healthy late preterm infants (n = 122,014), of which 4.1% were readmitted to hospital within 7-day after birth discharge. The random forest model with 24 variables had better predictive ability than the 8 variable logistic model with c-statistic of 0.644 (95% confidence interval 0.629, 0.659) in the validation data set and Brier score of 0.0408. The eight predictors of importance length of stay, delivery method, parity, gestational age, birthweight, race/ethnicity, phototherapy at birth hospitalization, and pre-existing or gestational diabetes were used to drive individual risk scores. The risk stratification had the ability to identify an estimated 19% of infants at greatest risk of readmission.

Conclusions

Our 7-day readmission predictive model had moderate performance in differentiating at risk late preterm infants. Future studies might benefit from inclusion of more variables and focus on hospital practices that minimize risk.

Background

Many adults have risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Screening all adults with risk factors for NAFLD using imaging is not feasible.

Objective

To develop a practical scoring tool for predicting NAFLD using participant demographics, medical history, anthropometrics, and lab values.

Design

Cross-sectional.

Participants

Data came from 6194 white, African American, Hispanic, and Chinese American participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort, ages 45-85 years.

Main measures

NAFLD was identified by liver computed tomography (≤ 40 Hounsfield units indicating > 30% hepatic steatosis) and data on 14 predictors was assessed for predicting NAFLD. Random forest variable importance was used to identify the minimum subset of variables required to achieve the highest predictive power. This subset was used to derive (n = 4132) and validate (n = 2063) a logistic regression-based score (NAFLD-MESA Index). A second NAFLD-Clinical Index excluding laboratory predictors was also developed.

Key results

NAFLD prevalence was 6.2%. The model included eight predictors: age, sex, race/ethnicity, type 2 diabetes, smoking history, body mass index, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), and triglycerides (TG). The NAFLD-Clinical Index model excluded GGT and TG. In the NAFLD-MESA model, the derivation set achieved an AUC_NAFLD-MESA = 0.83 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.86), and the validation set an AUC_NAFLD-MESA = 0.80 (0.77 to 0.84). The NAFLD-Clinical Index model was AUC_Clinical = 0.78 [0.75 to 0.81] in the derivation set and AUC_Clinical = 0.76 [0.72 to 0.80] in the validation set (p_{Bonferroni-adjusted} < 0.01).

Conclusions

The two models are simple but highly predictive tools that can aid clinicians to identify individuals at high NAFLD risk who could benefit from imaging.

Purpose

To estimate the effect of obesity on type 2 diabetes (T2DM) risk and evaluate to what extent non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) mediates this association.

Methods

Data came from 4,522 adults ages 45-84 participating in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort. Baseline obesity was defined using established BMI categories. NAFLD was measured by CT scans at baseline and incident T2DM defined as fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or use of diabetes medications.

Results

Over a median 9.1 years of follow-up between 2000 and 2012, 557 new cases of T2DM occurred. After adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, diet and exercise, those with obesity had 4.5 times the risk of T2DM compared to normal weight (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.5, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.0, 5.9). The mediation analysis suggested that NAFLD accounted for ~36% (95% CI: 27, 44) of the effect (direct effect HR = 3.2, 95% CI: 2.3, 4.6; indirect effect through NAFLD, HR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.3, 1.5).

Conclusions

These data suggest that the association between obesity and T2DM risk is partially explained by the presence of NAFLD. Future studies should evaluate if NAFLD could be an effective target to reduce the effect of obesity on T2DM.

Purpose

To evaluate the ocular signs and tests for keratoconjunctivitis sicca (KCS) in the absence of a gold standard.

Methods

Cross-sectional study of participants from the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) registry. Participants had oral/ocular/rheumatologic examinations, blood/saliva samples collected, and salivary gland biopsy. Latent class analysis (LCA) identified clusters of patients based on 3 to 4 predictor variables relating to signs or tests of KCS. The resulting model-based "gold standard" classification formed the basis for estimated sensitivity and specificity associated with these predictors.

Results

A total of 3514 participants were enrolled into SICCA, with 52.9% classified as SS. LCA revealed a best-fit model with 2 groups. For the gold standard-positive group, an abnormal tear breakup time, ocular staining score (OSS), and Schirmer I had a sensitivity of 99.5%, 91.0%, and 47.4%, respectively. For the gold standard-negative group, an abnormal tear breakup time, OSS, and Schirmer I had a specificity of 32.0%, 84.0%, and 88.5%, respectively. OSS components (fluorescein and lissamine staining), exhibited a sensitivity of 82.6% and 90.5%, respectively, in the gold standard-positive group, whereas these signs in the gold standard-negative group had a specificity of 88.8% and 73.0%, respectively.

Conclusions

OSS and its components (fluorescein and lissamine staining) differentiated 2 groups from each other better than other KCS parameters and had relatively high sensitivity and specificity.

Background

Latino children are at increased risk for mirconutrient deficiencies and problems of overweight and obesity. Exposures in pregnancy and early postpartum may impact future growth trajectories.

Objectives

To evaluate the relationship between prenatal and postnatal maternal depressive symptoms experienced in pregnancy and infant growth from birth to 2 years of age in a cohort of Latino infants.

Methods

We recruited pregnant Latina mothers at two San Francisco hospitals and followed their healthy infants to 24 months of age. At 6, 12 and 24 months of age, infants were weighed and measured. Maternal depressive symptoms were assessed prenatally and at 4-6 weeks postpartum. Women who had high depressive symptoms at both time periods were defined as having chronic depression. Logistic mixed models were applied to compare growth curves and risk for overweight and underweight based on exposure to maternal depression.

Results

We followed 181 infants to 24 months. At 12 and 24 months, respectively, 27.4% and 40.5% were overweight, and 5.6% and 2.2% were underweight. Exposure to chronic maternal depression was associated with underweight (OR = 12.12, 95%CI 1.86-78.78) and with reduced weight gain in the first 2 years of life (Coef = -0.48, 95% CI -0.94-0.01) compared with unexposed infants or infants exposed to episodic depression (depression at one time point). Exposure to chronic depression was also associated with reduced risk for overweight in the first 2 years of life (OR 0.28, 95%CI 0.03-0.92).

Conclusions

Exposure to chronic maternal depression in the pre- and postnatal period was associated with reduced weight gain in the first two years of life and greater risk for failure to thrive, in comparison with unexposed infants or those exposed episodically. The infants of mothers with chronic depression may need additional nutritional monitoring and intervention.

Purpose

To determine the intra-observer and inter-observer reliability of a novel ocular staining score among trained ophthalmologists.

Design

Reliability analysis within a prospective, observational, multicenter cohort study.

Methods

Those enrolled in the National Institutes of Health-funded Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) who presented for follow-up at the University of California San Francisco, Aravind Eye Hospital, Johns Hopkins University, and the University of Pennsylvania were included. Study participants were graded using the ocular staining score by at least 2 masked SICCA-trained ophthalmologists. The primary outcome for this study was the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for the total ocular staining score. ICCs were also calculated for tear break-up time (TBUT) and conjunctival and corneal staining.

Results

Total ocular staining score had an ICC of 0.91 for the right eye (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85-0.96) and 0.90 for the left eye (95% CI 0.83-0.97). Corneal staining (right eye 0.86, 95% CI 0.76-0.93, left eye 0.90, 95% CI 0.81-0.95) and conjunctival staining (right eye 0.87, 95% CI 0.80-0.93, left eye 0.85, 95% CI 0.75-0.93) demonstrated excellent agreement. The ICC for TBUT was slightly lower (right eye 0.77, 95% CI 0.64-0.89; left eye 0.81, 95% CI 0.68-0.90).

Conclusions

Previous studies have shown that the ocular staining score is correlated with other diagnostic components of Sjögren syndrome. In this study, we demonstrate high reliability in grading among trained ophthalmologists, completing the validation of this test.