A Bayesian hierarchical model that integrated information about state and observation processes was used to estimate the number of adult Delta Smelt entrained into the southern Sacramento−San Joaquin Delta during water export operations by the California State Water Project and the Central Valley Project. The model hierarchy accounted for dynamic processes of transport, survival, sampling efficiency, and observation. Water export, mark−recapture, and fish facility count data informed each process. Model diagnostics and simulation testing indicated a good fit of the model, and that parameters were jointly estimable in the Bayesian hierarchical model framework. The model was limited, however, by sparse data to estimate survival and State Water Project sampling efficiency. Total December to March entrainment of adult Delta Smelt ranged from an estimated 142,488 fish in 2000 to 53 fish in 2014, and the efficiency of louvers used to divert entrained fish to fish facilities appeared to decline at high and low primary intake channel velocities. Though applied to Delta Smelt, the hierarchical modeling framework was sufficiently flexible to estimate the entrainment of other pelagic species.

Managing endangered species is challenging when increased rarity leads to an inability to detect their responses to environmental conditions. In the San Francisco Estuary, the state and federally listed Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) has declined to record low numbers, elevating concern over entrainment at the State Water Project (SWP) and Central Valley Project (CVP) water export facilities. The objective of this study was to: (1) revisit previous work on factors that affect adult Delta Smelt collected at the SWP and CVP fish collection facilities using updated conceptual models and a new statistical approach; and (2) to determine factors that affect salvage at time-scales of interest to management. Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models were applied to salvage data at the SWP and CVP, aggregated into two response categories: a “first flush” response that represented daily salvage from the start of the entrainment window to the 50% midpoint of observed salvage, and a “seasonal” response that included daily salvage from the entire entrainment window. Precipitation, sub-adult abundance, Yolo Bypass flow, and exports best explained first flush salvage at both the SWP and CVP. The seasonal models included a similar set of influential variables, but the relative influence of precipitation was lower compared to the first flush models., Yolo Bypass flow was more influential for seasonal salvage at the SWP, compared to the CVP; Old and Middle River flow was more influential for seasonal salvage at the CVP. Although the rank of variable importance that explains salvage differed slightly between first flush and seasonal time-scales, this study suggests that salvage is most influenced by hydrodynamics, water quality, and population abundance. The application of BRT models to predict salvage is limited, because salvage has been low since federal protections were implemented in 2008. Forecast models that integrate real-time variables with fish behavior models may improve Delta Smelt management.