We present a full-likelihood method to infer polygenic adaptation from DNA sequence variation and GWAS summary statistics to quantify recent transient directional selection acting on a complex trait. Through simulations of polygenic trait architecture evolution and GWASs, we show the method substantially improves power over current methods. We examine the robustness of the method under stratification, uncertainty and bias in marginal effects, uncertainty in the causal SNPs, allelic heterogeneity, negative selection, and low GWAS sample size. The method can quantify selection acting on correlated traits, controlling for pleiotropy even among traits with strong genetic correlation (|r_g|=80%) while retaining high power to attribute selection to the causal trait. When the causal trait is excluded from analysis, selection is attributed to its closest proxy. We discuss limitations of the method, cautioning against strongly causal interpretations of the results, and the possibility of undetectable gene-by-environment (GxE) interactions. We apply the method to 56 human polygenic traits, revealing signals of directional selection on pigmentation, life history, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and other traits. We also conduct joint testing of 137 pairs of genetically correlated traits, revealing widespread correlated response acting on these traits (2.6-fold enrichment, p = 1.5 × 10^-7). Signs of selection on some traits previously reported as adaptive (e.g., educational attainment and hair color) are largely attributable to correlated response (p = 2.9 × 10^-6 and 1.7 × 10^-4, respectively). Lastly, our joint test shows antagonistic selection has increased type 2 diabetes risk and decrease HbA1c (p = 1.5 × 10^-5).

One of the most powerful and commonly used approaches for detecting local adaptation in the genome is the identification of extreme allele frequency differences between populations. In this article, we present a new maximum likelihood method for finding regions under positive selection. It is based on a Gaussian approximation to allele frequency changes and it incorporates admixture between populations. The method can analyze multiple populations simultaneously and retains power to detect selection signatures specific to ancestry components that are not representative of any extant populations. Using simulated data, we compare our method to related approaches, and show that it is orders of magnitude faster than the state-of-the-art, while retaining similar or higher power for most simulation scenarios. We also apply it to human genomic data and identify loci with extreme genetic differentiation between major geographic groups. Many of the genes identified are previously known selected loci relating to hair pigmentation and morphology, skin, and eye pigmentation. We also identify new candidate regions, including various selected loci in the Native American component of admixed Mexican-Americans. These involve diverse biological functions, such as immunity, fat distribution, food intake, vision, and hair development.

Most current methods for detecting natural selection from DNA sequence data are limited in that they are either based on summary statistics or a composite likelihood, and as a consequence, do not make full use of the information available in DNA sequence data. We here present a new importance sampling approach for approximating the full likelihood function for the selection coefficient. Our method CLUES treats the ancestral recombination graph (ARG) as a latent variable that is integrated out using previously published Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The method can be used for detecting selection, estimating selection coefficients, testing models of changes in the strength of selection, estimating the time of the start of a selective sweep, and for inferring the allele frequency trajectory of a selected or neutral allele. We perform extensive simulations to evaluate the method and show that it uniformly improves power to detect selection compared to current popular methods such as nSL and SDS, and can provide reliable inferences of allele frequency trajectories under many conditions. We also explore the potential of our method to detect extremely recent changes in the strength of selection. We use the method to infer the past allele frequency trajectory for a lactase persistence SNP (MCM6) in Europeans. We also infer the trajectory of a SNP (EDAR) in Han Chinese, finding evidence that this allele's age is much older than previously claimed. We also study a set of 11 pigmentation-associated variants. Several genes show evidence of strong selection particularly within the last 5,000 years, including ASIP, KITLG, and TYR. However, selection on OCA2/HERC2 seems to be much older and, in contrast to previous claims, we find no evidence of selection on TYRP1.

Phenotypic plasticity has been hypothesized to precede and facilitate adaptation to novel environments [1-8], but examples of plasticity preceding adaptation in wild populations are rare (but see [9, 10]). We studied a population of side-blotched lizards, Uta stansburiana, living on a lava flow that formed 22,500 years ago [11] to understand the origin of their novel melanic phenotype that makes them cryptic on the black lava. We found that lizards living on and off of the lava flow exhibited phenotypic plasticity in coloration but also appeared to have heritable differences in pigmentation. We sequenced the exomes of 104 individuals and identified two known regulators of melanin production, PREP and PRKAR1A, which had markedly increased levels of divergence between lizards living on and off the lava flow. The derived variants in PREP and PRKAR1A were only found in the lava population and were associated with increased pigmentation levels in an experimental cohort of hatchling lizards. Simulations suggest that the derived variants in the PREP and PRKAR1A genes arose recently and were under strong positive selection in the lava population. Overall, our results suggest that ancestral plasticity for coloration facilitated initial survival in the lava environment and was followed by genetic changes that modified the phenotype in the direction of the induced plastic response, possibly through de novo mutations. These observations provide a detailed example supporting the hypothesis that plasticity aids in the initial colonization of a novel habitat, with natural selection subsequently refining the phenotype with genetic adaptations to the new environment. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Identifying the causes of similarities and differences in genetic disease prevalence among humans is central to understanding disease etiology. While present-day humans are not strongly differentiated, vast amounts of genomic data now make it possible to study subtle patterns of genetic variation. This allows us to trace our genomic history thousands of years into the past and its implications for the distribution of disease-associated variants today. Genomic analyses have shown that demographic processes shaped the distribution and frequency of disease-associated variants over time. Furthermore, local adaptation to new environmental conditions-including pathogens-has generated strong patterns of differentiation at particular loci. Researchers are also beginning to uncover the genetic architecture of complex diseases, affected by many variants of small effect. The field of population genomics thus holds great potential for providing further insights into the evolution of human disease.

Understanding the physiology and genetics of human hypoxia tolerance has important medical implications, but this phenomenon has thus far only been investigated in high-altitude human populations. Another system, yet to be explored, is humans who engage in breath-hold diving. The indigenous Bajau people ("Sea Nomads") of Southeast Asia live a subsistence lifestyle based on breath-hold diving and are renowned for their extraordinary breath-holding abilities. However, it is unknown whether this has a genetic basis. Using a comparative genomic study, we show that natural selection on genetic variants in the PDE10A gene have increased spleen size in the Bajau, providing them with a larger reservoir of oxygenated red blood cells. We also find evidence of strong selection specific to the Bajau on BDKRB2, a gene affecting the human diving reflex. Thus, the Bajau, and possibly other diving populations, provide a new opportunity to study human adaptation to hypoxia tolerance. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

The Holocene (beginning around 12,000 years ago) encompassed some of the most significant changes in human evolution, with far-reaching consequences for the dietary, physical and mental health of present-day populations. Using a dataset of more than 1,600 imputed ancient genomes¹, we modelled the selection landscape during the transition from hunting and gathering, to farming and pastoralism across West Eurasia. We identify key selection signals related to metabolism, including that selection at the FADS cluster began earlier than previously reported and that selection near the LCT locus predates the emergence of the lactase persistence allele by thousands of years. We also find strong selection in the HLA region, possibly due to increased exposure to pathogens during the Bronze Age. Using ancient individuals to infer local ancestry tracts in over 400,000 samples from the UK Biobank, we identify widespread differences in the distribution of Mesolithic, Neolithic and Bronze Age ancestries across Eurasia. By calculating ancestry-specific polygenic risk scores, we show that height differences between Northern and Southern Europe are associated with differential Steppe ancestry, rather than selection, and that risk alleles for mood-related phenotypes are enriched for Neolithic farmer ancestry, whereas risk alleles for diabetes and Alzheimer's disease are enriched for Western hunter-gatherer ancestry. Our results indicate that ancient selection and migration were large contributors to the distribution of phenotypic diversity in present-day Europeans.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neuro-inflammatory and neurodegenerative disease that is most prevalent in Northern Europe. Although it is known that inherited risk for MS is located within or in close proximity to immune-related genes, it is unknown when, where and how this genetic risk originated¹. Here, by using a large ancient genome dataset from the Mesolithic period to the Bronze Age², along with new Medieval and post-Medieval genomes, we show that the genetic risk for MS rose among pastoralists from the Pontic steppe and was brought into Europe by the Yamnaya-related migration approximately 5,000 years ago. We further show that these MS-associated immunogenetic variants underwent positive selection both within the steppe population and later in Europe, probably driven by pathogenic challenges coinciding with changes in diet, lifestyle and population density. This study highlights the critical importance of the Neolithic period and Bronze Age as determinants of modern immune responses and their subsequent effect on the risk of developing MS in a changing environment.

Major migration events in Holocene Eurasia have been characterized genetically at broad regional scales^1-4. However, insights into the population dynamics in the contact zones are hampered by a lack of ancient genomic data sampled at high spatiotemporal resolution^5-7. Here, to address this, we analysed shotgun-sequenced genomes from 100 skeletons spanning 7,300 years of the Mesolithic period, Neolithic period and Early Bronze Age in Denmark and integrated these with proxies for diet (¹³C and ¹⁵N content), mobility (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio) and vegetation cover (pollen). We observe that Danish Mesolithic individuals of the Maglemose, Kongemose and Ertebølle cultures form a distinct genetic cluster related to other Western European hunter-gatherers. Despite shifts in material culture they displayed genetic homogeneity from around 10,500 to 5,900 calibrated years before present, when Neolithic farmers with Anatolian-derived ancestry arrived. Although the Neolithic transition was delayed by more than a millennium relative to Central Europe, it was very abrupt and resulted in a population turnover with limited genetic contribution from local hunter-gatherers. The succeeding Neolithic population, associated with the Funnel Beaker culture, persisted for only about 1,000 years before immigrants with eastern Steppe-derived ancestry arrived. This second and equally rapid population replacement gave rise to the Single Grave culture with an ancestry profile more similar to present-day Danes. In our multiproxy dataset, these major demographic events are manifested as parallel shifts in genotype, phenotype, diet and land use.