Overtime is a common phenomenon around the world. Overtime drives both internal heat gains from occupants, lighting and plug-loads, and HVAC operation during overtime periods. Overtime leads to longer occupancy hours and extended operation of building services systems beyond normal working hours, thus overtime impacts total building energy use. Current literature lacks methods to model overtime occupancy because overtime is stochastic in nature and varies by individual occupants and by time. To address this gap in the literature, this study aims to develop a new stochastic model based on the statistical analysis of measured overtime occupancy data from an office building. A binomial distribution is used to represent the total number of occupants working overtime, while an exponential distribution is used to represent the duration of overtime periods. The overtime model is used to generate overtime occupancy schedules as an input to the energy model of a second office building. The measured and simulated cooling energy use during the overtime period is compared in order to validate the overtime model. A hybrid approach to energy model calibration is proposed and tested, which combines ASHRAE Guideline 14 for the calibration of the energy model during normal working hours, and a proposed KS test for the calibration of the energy model during overtime. The developed stochastic overtime model and the hybrid calibration approach can be used in building energy simulations to improve the accuracy of results, and better understand the characteristics of overtime in office buildings.

To improve energy efficiency—during new buildings design or during a building retrofit—evaluating the energy savings potential of energy conservation measures (ECMs) is a critical task. In building retrofits, occupant behavior significantly impacts building energy use and is a leading factor in uncertainty when determining the effectiveness of retrofit ECMs. Current simulation-based assessment methods simplify the representation of occupant behavior by using a standard or representative set of static and homogeneous assumptions ignoring the dynamics, stochastics, and diversity of occupant's energy-related behavior in buildings. The simplification contributes to significant gaps between the simulated and measured actual energy performance of buildings. This study presents a framework for quantifying the impact of occupant behaviors on ECM energy savings using building performance simulation. During the first step of the study, three occupant behavior styles (austerity, normal, and wasteful) were defined to represent different levels of energy consciousness of occupants regarding their interactions with building energy systems (HVAC, windows, lights and plug-in equipment). Next, a simulation workflow was introduced to determine a range of the ECM energy savings. Then, guidance was provided to interpret the range of ECM savings to support ECM decision making. Finally, a pilot study was performed in a real building to demonstrate the application of the framework. Simulation results show that the impact of occupant behaviors on ECM savings vary with the type of ECM. Occupant behavior minimally affects energy savings for ECMs that are technology-driven (the relative savings differ by less than 2%) and have little interaction with the occupants; for ECMs with strong occupant interaction, such as the use of zonal control variable refrigerant flow system and natural ventilation, energy savings are significantly affected by occupant behavior (the relative savings differ by up to 20%). The study framework provides a novel, holistic approach to assessing the uncertainty of ECM energy savings related to occupant behavior, enabling stakeholders to understand and assess the risk of adopting energy efficiency technologies for new and existing buildings.

Occupant behavior in buildings is a leading factor influencing energy use in buildings. Low-cost behavioral solutions have demonstrated significant potential energy savings. Estimating the behavioral savings potential is important for a more effective design of behavior change interventions, which in turn will support more effective energy-efficiency policies. This study introduces a simulation approach to estimate the energy savings potential of occupant behavior measures. First it defines five typical occupant behavior measures in office buildings, then simulates and analyzes their individual and integrated impact on energy use in buildings. The energy performance of the five behavior measures was evaluated using EnergyPlus simulation for a real office building across four typical U.S. climates and two vintages. The Occupancy Simulator was used to simulate the occupant movement in each zone with inputs from the site survey of the case building. Based on the simulation results, the occupant behavior measures can achieve overall site energy savings as high as 22.9% for individual measures and up to 41.0% for integrated measures. Although energy savings of behavior measures would vary depending upon many factors, the presented simulation approach is robust and can be adopted for other studies aiming to quantify occupant behavior impact on building performance.

Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Although energy efficiency technologies can influence thermal resilience of buildings, they are traditionally studied separately, and their interconnections are rarely quantified. This study developed a methodology of modeling and analysis to provide insights into the nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency of buildings. We conducted a case study of a real nursing home in Florida, where 12 patients died during Hurricane Irma in 2017 due to HVAC system power loss, to understand and quantify how passive and active energy efficiency measures (EEMs) can improve thermal resilience to reduce heat-exposure risk of patients. Results show that passive measures of opening windows and doors for natural ventilation, as well as miscellaneous load reduction, are very effective in eliminating the extreme dangerous occasions. However, to maintain safe conditions, active measures such as on-site power generators and thermal storage are also needed. The nursing home was further studied by changing its location to two other cities: San Francisco (mild climate) and Chicago (cold winter and hot summer). Results revealed that the EEMs' impacts on thermal resilience vary significantly by climate and building characteristics. The study also estimated the costs of EEMs to help stakeholders prioritize the measures. Passive measures that may not save energy may greatly improve thermal resilience, and thus should be considered in building design or retrofit. Findings from this study indicate energy efficiency technologies should be evaluated not only by their energy savings performance but also by their influence on a building's resilience to extreme weather events.

Buildings consume more than one-third of the world’s primary energy. Reducing energy use and greenhouse-gas emissions in the buildings sector through energy conservation and efficiency improvements constitutes a key strategy for achieving global energy and environmental goals. Building performance simulation has been increasingly used as a tool for designing, operating and retrofitting buildings to save energy and utility costs. However, opportunities remain for researchers, software developers, practitioners and policymakers to maximize the value of building performance simulation in the design and operation of low energy buildings and communities that leverage interdisciplinary approaches to integrate humans, buildings, and the power grid at a large scale. This paper presents ten challenges that highlight some of the most important issues in building performance simulation, covering the full building life cycle and a wide range of modeling scales. The formulation and discussion of each challenge aims to provide insights into the state-of-the-art and future research opportunities for each topic, and to inspire new questions from young researchers in this field.

District cooling systems are widely used in urban residential communities in China. Most of such systems are oversized, which leads to wasted investment, low operational efficiency and, thus, waste of energy. The accurate prediction of district cooling loads that can support the rightsizing of cooling plant equipment remains a challenge. This study develops a novel stochastic modeling method that consists of (1) six prototype house models representing most apartments in a district, (2) occupant behavior models of residential buildings reflecting their spatial and temporal diversity as well as their complexity based on a large-scale residential survey in China, and (3) a stochastic sampling process to represent all apartments and occupants in the district. The stochastic method was applied to a case study using the Designer's Simulation Toolkit (DeST) to simulate the cooling loads of a residential district in Wuhan, China. The simulation results agreed well with the measured data based on five performance metrics representing the aggregated cooling consumption, the peak cooling loads, the spatial load distribution, the temporal load distribution and the load profiles. Two prevalent simulation methods were also employed to simulate the district cooling loads. The results showed that oversimplified assumptions about occupant behavior could lead to significant overestimation of the peak cooling load and the total cooling loads in the district. Future work will aim to simplify the workflow and data requirements of the stochastic method for its application, and to explore its use in predicting district heating loads and in commercial or mixed-use districts.

Building retrofits provide a large opportunity to significantly reduce energy consumption in the buildings sector. Traditional building retrofits focus on equipment upgrades, often at the end of equipment life or failure, and result in replacement with marginally improved similar technology and limited energy savings. The Integrated System (IS) retrofit approach enables much greater energy savings by leveraging interactive effects between end use systems, enabling downsized or lower energy technologies. This paper presents a case study in Hawaii quantifying the benefits of an IS retrofit approach compared to two traditional retrofit approaches: a Standard Practice of upgrading equipment to meet minimum code requirements, and an Improved Practice of upgrading equipment to a higher efficiency. The IS approach showed an energy savings of 84% over existing building energy use, much higher than the traditional approaches of 13% and 33%. The IS retrofit also demonstrated the greatest energy cost savings potential. While the degree of savings realized from the IS approach will vary by building and climate, these findings indicate that savings on the order of 50% and greater are not possible without an IS approach. It is therefore recommended that the IS approach be universally adopted to achieve deep energy savings.

California has a state-wide goal of carbon neutrality by 2045. Decarbonization for disadvantaged communities (DACs) poses extra challenges due to financial, informational, language, and other barriers. This paper presents the methodology, results, and analysis of energy efficiency measures (EEMs) to save energy, reduce CO2 emission, and promote clean energy access at the district scale for two DACs in Fresno, California. The methods are broadly applicable to other neighborhoods across the U.S. 22 EEMs were identified and modelled for all residential buildings in the two DACs both individually and as packages. Results show that for energy and CO2 reduction purposes, the top performing EEM package can decrease energy use and CO2 emissions by an average of 60%. For electrification, heat pump water heaters are a viable solution, coupled with air source or mini-split heat pumps. Replacing gasoline vehicles with electric vehicles is another important measure in electrification and reducing GHG emissions.

Building model calibration is critical in bringing simulated energy use closer to the actual consumption. This paper presents a novel, automated model calibration approach that uses logic linking parameter tuning with bias pattern recognition to overcome some of the disadvantages associated with traditional calibration processes. The pattern-based process contains four key steps: (1) running the original precalibrated energy model to obtain monthly simulated electricity and gas use; (2) establishing a pattern bias, either Universal or Seasonal Bias, by comparing load shape patterns of simulated and actual monthly energy use; (3) using programmed logic to select which parameter to tune first based on bias pattern, weather and input parameter interactions; and (4) automatically tuning the calibration parameters and checking the progress using pattern-fit criteria. The automated calibration algorithm was implemented in the Commercial Building Energy Saver, a web-based building energy retrofit analysis toolkit. The proof of success of the methodology was demonstrated using a case study of an office building located in San Francisco. The case study inputs included the monthly electricity bill, monthly gas bill, original building model and weather data with outputs resulting in a calibrated model that more closely matched that of the actual building energy use profile. The novelty of the developed calibration methodology lies in linking parameter tuning with the underlying logic associated with bias pattern identification. Although there are some limitations to this approach, the pattern-based automated calibration methodology can be universally adopted as an alternative to manual or hierarchical calibration approaches.

The small commercial office market experiences a number of unique barriers to achieving substantial energy reductions. Those barriers include: 1) a lack of awareness of and access to centralized, comprehensive, cost-evaluative information about how to achieve energy targets, and 2) affordable access to energy reduction services such as engineering and auditing services. Energy efficiency tools and services currently involve higher costs on a per-square-foot or kilowatt-hour (kWh)-saved basis. Small commercial buildings are consequently underserved by the energy services market and disadvantaged in accessing the same detailed retrofit information that larger buildings realize. Meeting national and state energy goals requires whole-building integrated solutions that enable this sector to realize deep energy savings successfully and affordably. This project developed cost-effective retrofit packages of commercial, whole-building integrated systems to achieve zero net energy (ZNE) performance for California multi-story small commercial offices. The energy efficiency measure (EEM) packages target 50% energy savings over existing energy use, with costs within 10% of conventional-performance construction costs, and internal rates of return (IRR) of 5% or more. The developed packages of EEMs are validated for energy performance, as well as visual and thermal comfort, under both controlled laboratory test conditions for emerging technologies and demonstrated in an occupied small commercial building. Validated EEMs were built into an online public software platform that enables small commercial facilities to conduct whole-building retrofit assessments, relevant to their building, providing cost-evaluative feedback on EEMs and packages of measures.