Tax audits are a crucial process adopted in all tax departments to ensure tax compliance and fairness. Traditionally, tax audit leads have been selected based on empirical rules and randomization methods, which are not adaptive, may miss major cases and can introduce bias. Here, we present an audit lead tool based on artificial neural networks that have been trained and evaluated on an integrated dataset of 93,413 unique tax records from 8,647 restaurant businesses over 10 years in the Northern California, provided by the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration (CDTFA). The tool achieved a 40.1% precision and 58.7% recall (F1-score of 0.42) on classifying positive audit leads, and the corresponding regressor provided estimated audit gains (MAE of $155,490). Finally, we evaluated the statistical significance of various empirical rules for use in lead selection, with two out of five being supported by the data. This work demonstrates how data can be leveraged for creating evidence-based models of audit selection and validating empirical hypotheses, resulting in higher audit yields and more fair audit selection processes.

Smoke taint in wine has become a critical issue in the wine industry due to its significant negative impact on wine quality. Data-driven approaches including univariate analysis and predictive modeling are applied to a data set containing concentrations of 20 VOCs in 48 grape samples and 56 corresponding wine samples with a taster-evaluated smoke taint index. The resulting models for predicting the smoke taint index of wines are highly predictive when using as inputs VOC concentrations after log conversion in both grapes and wines (Pearson Correlation Coefficient PCC = 0.82; R2 = 0.68) and less so when only grape VOCs are used (Pearson Correlation Coefficient PCC = 0.76; R2 = 0.56), and the classification models also show the capacity for detecting smoke-tainted wines using both wine and grape VOC concentrations (Recall = 0.76; Precision = 0.92; F1 = 0.82) or using only grape VOC concentrations (Recall = 0.74; Precision = 0.92; F1 = 0.80). The performance of the predictive model shows the possibility of predicting the smoke taint index of the wine and grape samples before fermentation. The corresponding code of data analysis and predictive modeling of smoke taint in wine is available in the Github repository (https://github.com/IBPA/smoke_taint_prediction).