Climate change is expected to alter hourly and daily rainfall regimes and, in turn, the dynamics of ecosystem processes controlling greenhouse gas emissions that affect climate. Here, we investigate the effects of expected twenty-first century changes in hourly and daily rainfall on soil carbon and nitrogen emissions, soil organic matter (SOM) stocks, and leaching using a coupled mechanistic carbon and nitrogen soil biogeochemical model (BAMS2). The model represents various abiotic and biotic processes involving 11 SOM pools. These processes include fungal depolymerization, heterotrophic bacterial mineralization, nitrification, denitrification, microbial mortality, necromass decomposition, microbial response to water stress, protection, aqueous advection and diffusion, aqueous complexation, and gaseous dissolution. Multi-decadal modeling with varying rainfall patterns was conducted on nine Australian grasslands in tropical, temperate, and semi-arid regions. Our results show that annual CO 2 emissions in the semi-arid grasslands increase by more than 20% with a 20% increase in annual rainfall (with no changes in the rainfall timing), but the tropical grasslands have opposite trends. A 20% increase in annual rainfall also increases annual N 2O and NO emissions in the semi-arid grasslands by more than 10% but decreases emissions by at least 25% in the temperate grasslands. When subjected to low frequency and high magnitude daily rainfall events with unchanged annual totals, the semi-arid grasslands are the most sensitive, but changes in annual CO 2 emissions and SOM stocks are less than 5 %. Intensification of hourly rainfall did not significantly alter CO 2 emissions and SOM stocks but changed annual NH 3 emissions in the tropical grasslands by more than 300%.

Accurate prediction of the temperature response of the velocity v of a biochemical reaction has wide applications in cell biology, reaction design, and biomass yield enhancement. Here, we introduce a simple but comprehensive mechanistic approach that uses thermodynamics and biochemical kinetics to describe and link the reaction rate and Michaelis–Menten constants (kT and K T) with the biomass yield and mortality rate (YT and δT) as explicit functions of T. The temperature control is exerted by catabolic enthalpy at low temperatures and catabolic entropy at high temperatures, whereas changes in cell and enzyme–substrate heat capacity shift the anabolic electron use efficiency eA and the maximum reaction velocity vmax. We show that cells have optimal growth when the catabolic (differential) free energy of activation decreases the cell free energy harvest required to duplicate their internal structures as long as electrons for anabolism are available. With the described approach, we accurately predicted observed glucose fermentation and ammonium nitrification dynamics across a wide temperature range with a minimal number of thermodynamics parameters, and we highlight how kinetic parameters are linked to each other using first principles.

Anthropogenic activities have substantially enhanced the loadings of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the Earth system since pre-industrial times^1,2, contributing to widespread eutrophication and air pollution^3-6. Increased Nr can also influence global climate through a variety of effects on atmospheric and land processes but the cumulative net climate effect is yet to be unravelled. Here we show that anthropogenic Nr causes a net negative direct radiative forcing of -0.34 [-0.20, -0.50] W m^-2 in the year 2019 relative to the year 1850. This net cooling effect is the result of increased aerosol loading, reduced methane lifetime and increased terrestrial carbon sequestration associated with increases in anthropogenic Nr, which are not offset by the warming effects of enhanced atmospheric nitrous oxide and ozone. Future predictions using three representative scenarios show that this cooling effect may be weakened primarily as a result of reduced aerosol loading and increased lifetime of methane, whereas in particular N₂O-induced warming will probably continue to increase under all scenarios. Our results indicate that future reductions in anthropogenic Nr to achieve environmental protection goals need to be accompanied by enhanced efforts to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to achieve climate change mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.