Accumulation of Knowledge in Theoretical History A Review Essay on Historical Macrosociology: Methodology and Methods by Nikolai S. Rozov (Novosibirsk State University, 2009).

A time series of political power configurations of the Indic world system 500 BC — AD 1800 is examined by way of Poisson process analysis, phase transition analysis, Markov process analysis, mathematical modeling and simulation, information theory, analysis of autocorrelation, periodogrammetry, and time-spectral analysis (including epoch superposition). The Indic system displays an unusual propensity toward bipolarity and unipolarity. The behavior of the Indic world system at first sight resembles a Poisson process in which the age of a configuration is irrelevant to its stability. However, the uneven stability of Indic configurations reveals a first-order Markov process at work, within a new sort of longue durée: extremely long-term rules of political change, durable over 2000 years, which seem to route all power structure transitions to, from, and through bipolarity and unipolarity. No progression is found, but rather temporal symmetry. However, upon spectral analysis, several periodicities, both long (300-400 years) and short (1, 2 and 3 generations) are found in the data, and proposed for historical examination.

The article presents results of spectral analysis that has detected the presence of Kondratieff waves (their period equals approximately 52–53 years) in the world GDP dynamics for the 1870–2007 period. To estimate the statistical significance of the detected cycles a new methodology has been applied. The significance of K-waves in the analyzed data has turned out to be in the range between 4 and 5 per cent. Hence, this spectral analysis has supported the hypothesis of the presence of Kondratieff waves in the world GDP dynamics. In addition, the reduced spectra analysis has indicated a rather high (2–3%) significance of Juglar cycles (with a period of 7–9 years), as well as the one of Kitchin cycles (with a period of 3–4 years). Thus our spectral analysis has also supported the hypothesis of the presence of Juglar and Kitchin cycles in the world GDP dynamics. On the other hand, our analysis suggests that the Kuznets swing should be regarded as the third harmonic of the Kondratieff wave rather than as a separate independent cycle. This research suggests two interpretations of the current global economic crisis. On the one hand, the spectral analysis suggests rather optimistically that the current world economic crisis might mark not the beginning of the downswing phase of the 5th Kondratieff wave, but it may be interpreted as a temporary depression between two peaks of the upswing (whereas the next peak might even exceed the previous one). On the other hand, there also seems to be some evidence supporting another interpretation based on the assumption that the current world financial-economic crisis marks the beginning of the downswing phase of the 5th Kondratieff wave. The article also explores the world GDP dynamics before 1870 and finds that it does not appear possible to detect Kondratieff waves in the world GDP dynamics for the pre-1870 period, though for this period they appear to be detected for the GDP dynamics of the West. This suggests that in the pre-1870 epoch the Modern World System was not sufficiently integrated, and the World System core was not sufficiently strong yet – that is why the rhythm of the Western core’s development was not quite felt on the world level. Only in the subsequent era the World System reached such a level of integration and its core acquired such strength that it appears possible to trace quite securely Kondratieff waves in the World GDP dynamics.

The analysis of the gold price series for 2003–2010 employing both the methodology developed by Didier Sornette and the one of the authors allows forecasting the collapse in gold prices in April – June 2011. The article discusses both the scenarios that could allow avoiding this collapse, and the possibilities of the “gold bubble burst” leading to the second wave of the global economic crisis.