Purpose

To assess whether the predictive accuracy of machine learning algorithms using Kalman filtering for forecasting future values of global indices on perimetry can be enhanced by adding global retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) data and whether model performance is influenced by the racial composition of the training and testing sets.

Design

Retrospective, longitudinal cohort study.

Participants

Patients with open-angle glaucoma (OAG) or glaucoma suspects enrolled in the African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study or Diagnostic Innovation in Glaucoma Study.

Methods

We developed a Kalman filter (KF) with tonometry and perimetry data (KF-TP) and another KF with tonometry, perimetry, and global RNFL data (KF-TPO), comparing these models with one another and with 2 linear regression (LR) models for predicting mean deviation (MD) and pattern standard deviation values 36 months into the future for patients with OAG and glaucoma suspects. We also compared KF model performance when trained on individuals of European and African descent and tested on patients of the same versus the other race.

Main outcome measures

Predictive accuracy (percentage of MD values forecasted within the 95% repeatability interval) differences among the models.

Results

Among 362 eligible patients, the mean ± standard deviation age at baseline was 71.3 ± 10.4 years; 196 patients (54.1%) were women; 202 patients (55.8%) were of European descent, and 139 (38.4%) were of African descent. Among patients with OAG (n = 296), the predictive accuracy for 36 months in the future was higher for the KF models (73.5% for KF-TP, 71.2% for KF-TPO) than for the LR models (57.5%, 58.0%). Predictive accuracy did not differ significantly between KF-TP and KF-TPO (P = 0.20). If the races of the training and testing set patients were aligned (versus nonaligned), the mean absolute prediction error of future MD improved 0.39 dB for KF-TP and 0.48 dB for KF-TPO.

Conclusions

Adding global RNFL data to existing KFs minimally improved their predictive accuracy. Although KFs attained better predictive accuracy when the races of the training and testing sets were aligned, these improvements were modest. These findings will help to guide implementation of KFs in clinical practice.