The depth to bedrock controls a myriad of processes by influencing subsurface flow paths, erosion rates, soil moisture, and water uptake by plant roots. As hillslope interiors are very difficult and costly to illuminate and access, the topography of the bedrock surface is largely unknown. This essay is concerned with the prediction of spatial patterns in the depth to bedrock (DTB) using high-resolution topographic data, numerical modeling, and Bayesian analysis. Our DTB model builds on the bottom-up control on fresh-bedrock topography hypothesis of Rempe and Dietrich (2014) and includes a mass movement and bedrock-valley morphology term to extent the usefulness and general applicability of the model. We reconcile the DTB model with field observations using Bayesian analysis with the DREAM algorithm. We investigate explicitly the benefits of using spatially distributed parameter values to account implicitly, and in a relatively simple way, for rock mass heterogeneities that are very difficult, if not impossible, to characterize adequately in the field. We illustrate our method using an artificial data set of bedrock depth observations and then evaluate our DTB model with real-world data collected at the Papagaio river basin in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Our results demonstrate that the DTB model predicts accurately the observed bedrock depth data. The posterior mean DTB simulation is shown to be in good agreement with the measured data. The posterior prediction uncertainty of the DTB model can be propagated forward through hydromechanical models to derive probabilistic estimates of factors of safety.

Strength properties of most sedimentary and metamorphic rocks are known to vary with direction. Knowledge of this so-called rock anisotropy is of utmost importance for reliability analysis and engineering design. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we propose a formulation of the Hoek–Brown (HB) failure criterion, which calculates strength anisotropy using a non-uniform scaling of the stress tensor. We use two scaling factors, CN and CS, to link the orientation of the anisotropy planes with the loading direction. As we assume isotropic parameters for intact rock, our HB model formulation is relatively easy to use and has the additional advantage that it does not demand any modifications to the HB failure criterion. Second, we embed our HB model formulation in a Bayesian framework and illustrate its power and usefulness using experimental data of anisotropic rock samples published in the literature. Results demonstrate that our HB model formulation predicts accurately measured peak strengths of rocks with different degrees of anisotropy, confining stresses and anisotropy orientations. The uncertainty in peak strength of anisotropic rocks can be quite large, reiterating the need for an explicit treatment of strength anisotropy uncertainty in rock mechanics studies. The Bayesian methodology is general-purpose, and, as such, can help better inform geotechnical engineers, contractors and other professionals about rock conditions and design reliability and assist decision makers in determining the overall risks of engineering structures.

We investigate the uncertainty in bedrock depth and soil hydraulic parameters on the stability of a variably-saturated slope in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We couple Monte Carlo simulation of a three-dimensional flow model with numerical limit analysis to calculate confidence intervals of the safety factor using a 22-day rainfall record. We evaluate the marginal and joint impact of bedrock depth and soil hydraulic uncertainty. The mean safety factor and its 95% confidence interval evolve rapidly in response to the storm events. Explicit recognition of uncertainty in the hydraulic properties and depth to bedrock increases significantly the probability of failure.