AIMS: Prognostic enrichment strategies can make trials more efficient, although potentially at the cost of diminishing external validity. Whether using a risk score to identify a population at increased mortality risk could improve trial efficiency is uncertain. We aimed to assess whether Machine learning Assessment of RisK and EaRly mortality in Heart Failure (MARKER-HF), a previously validated risk score, could improve clinical trial efficiency. METHODS AND RESULTS: Mortality rates and association of MARKER-HF with all-cause death by 1 year were evaluated in four community-based heart failure (HF) and five HF clinical trial cohorts. Sample size required to assess effects of an investigational therapy on mortality was calculated assuming varying underlying MARKER-HF risk and proposed treatment effect profiles. Patients from community-based HF cohorts (n = 11 297) had higher observed mortality and MARKER-HF scores than did clinical trial patients (n = 13 165) with HF with either reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) or preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). MARKER-HF score was strongly associated with risk of 1-year mortality both in the community (hazard ratio [HR] 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-1.52) and clinical trial cohorts with HFrEF (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.30-1.54), and HFpEF (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.53-1.98), per 0.1 increase in MARKER-HF. Using MARKER-HF to identify patients for a hypothetical clinical trial assessing mortality reduction with an intervention, enabled a reduction in sample size required to show benefit. CONCLUSION: Using a reliable predictor of mortality such as MARKER-HF to enrich clinical trial populations provides a potential strategy to improve efficiency by requiring a smaller sample size to demonstrate a clinical benefit.

AIMS: There are limited data examining the role of immune checkpoint (IC) ligands in the pathophysiology of heart failure (HF). Therefore, we explore this in three HF animal models and in three different human cohorts (healthy, stable, and worsening HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Transcriptomic analyses of cardiac tissue of three different HF mouse models revealed differentially expressed IC receptors and their ligands compared with control mice. Based on this observation, serum levels of three well-known IC ligands (i.e. sPD-L1, sPD-L2 and galectin-9) were measured in stable HF patients from the Vitamin D Chronic Heart Failure (VitD-CHF) study (n = 101), as well as healthy individuals from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) study (n = 58). sPD-L1, sPD-L2, and galectin-9 were all associated with New York Heart Association classification. In multivariate linear regression analyses, all three IC ligands were associated with galectin-3 (β = 0.230, β = 0.283, and β = 0.304, respectively). sPD-L1 and galectin-9 were also associated with hs-troponin-T (β = 0.386 and β = 0.314). Regarding prognosis, higher serum levels of sPD-L1 and galectin-9 were significantly associated with increased risk for HF hospitalization and all-cause mortality [hazard ratio 1.69 (1.09-2.59) and hazard ratio 1.50 (1.06-2.12)]. Furthermore, the importance of IC ligands was tested in another stage of HF, namely worsening HF patients. In the worsening HF cohort (The BIOlogy Study to Tailored Treatment in Chronic Heart Failure) (n = 2032), sPD-L2 and galectin-9 were associated with New York Heart Association classification and significantly predicted outcome with an increased relative risk of 15% and 20%, after multivariable adjustment, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: IC ligands are expressed in cardiac disease models, and serum levels of IC ligands are elevated in HF patients, are associated with disease severity, and significantly predict prognosis. These data indicate a potential role for IC ligands in HF pathogenesis.

Relaxin is a naturally occurring peptide hormone that plays a central role in the hemodynamic and renovascular adaptive changes that occur during pregnancy. Triggering similar changes could potentially be beneficial in the treatment of patients with heart failure. The effects of relaxin include the production of nitric oxide, inhibition of endothelin, inhibition of angiotensin II, production of VEGF, and production of matrix metalloproteinases. These effects lead to systemic and renal vasodilation, increased arterial compliance, and other vascular changes. The recognition of this has led to the study of relaxin for the treatment of heart failure. An initial pilot study has shown favorable hemodynamic effects in patients with heart failure, including reduction in ventricular filling pressures and increased cardiac output. The ongoing RELAX-AHF clinical program is designed to evaluate the effects of relaxin on the symptoms and outcomes in a large group of patients admitted to hospital for acute heart failure. This review will summarize both the biology of relaxin and the data supporting its potential efficacy in human heart failure.

Aims

Although dyspnoea is the most common cause of admission for acute heart failure (AHF), more needs to be known about its clinical course and prognostic significance.

Methods and results

The Pre-RELAX-AHF study randomized 232 subjects with AHF to placebo or four doses of relaxin and evaluated early (6-24 h Likert scale) and persistent [change in visual analogue scale area under the curve (VAS AUC) through Day 5] dyspnoea relief. Worsening heart failure (WHF) was defined as worsening AHF signs and symptoms requiring additional therapy. Patients were followed until Day 180. Early dyspnoea relief was observed in only 25% of all patients, and VAS AUC at 5 days was 45% over baseline values in all patients (32% placebo; 50% all relaxin-treated patients). Worsening heart failure to Day 5 was observed in 16% of all patients (21% placebo; 14% relaxin). Lack of persistent dyspnoea relief and WHF were associated with a longer length of initial hospital stay and worse 60-day outcomes.

Conclusion

Dyspnoea relief in patients admitted with AHF is often incomplete, and many may show WHF after the initial stabilization. Both lack of persistent dyspnoea relief and in-hospital WHF predict a longer length of stay and worse outcome.

Aim

The authors assessed the comparative effectiveness of torsemide versus furosemide in the PROTECT trial.

Methods

The authors assessed the relationship between loop diuretic at discharge and death or cardiovascular/renal hospitalization within 30 days, and death through 150 days postdischarge using inverse probability weighting.

Results

Out of 1004 patients, 83.5% received furosemide and 16.5% torsemide. Torsemide patients had higher blood urea nitrogen, and more in-hospital worsening heart failure. Following adjustment, torsemide was associated with similar 30-day outcomes compared with furosemide (p = 0.93), but remained associated with increased 150-day death (hazard ratio: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.40-3.66; p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Patients treated with torsemide had features of greater disease severity, similar 30-day outcomes but increased 150-day mortality. Prospective randomized trials are needed to investigate the effect of torsemide versus furosemide.

Background

Heart rate and systolic blood pressure (SBP) are prognostic markers in heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Their combination in rate pressure product (RPP) as well as their role in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) remains unclear.

Hypothesis

RPP and its components are associated with HFpEF outcomes.

Methods

We performed an analysis of Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Subjects With Decompensated Heart Failure (ASCEND-HF; http://www.clinicaltrials.gov NCT00475852), which studied 7141 patients with acute HF. HFpEF was defined as left ventricular ejection fraction ≥40%. Outcomes were assessed by baseline heart rate, SBP, and RPP, as well as the change of these variables using adjusted Cox models.

Results

After multivariable adjustment, in-hospital change but not baseline heart rate, SBP, and RPP were associated with 30-day mortality/HF hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.17 per 5-bpm heart rate, HR: 1.20 per 10-mm Hg SBP, and HR: 1.02 per 100 bpm × mm Hg RPP; all P < 0.05). Baseline SBP was associated with 180-day mortality (HR: 0.88 per 10-mm Hg, P = 0.028). Though change in RPP was associated with 30-day mortality/HF hospitalization, the RPP baseline variable did not provide additional associative information with regard to outcomes when compared with assessment of baseline heart rate and SBP variables alone.

Conclusions

An increase in heart rate and SBP from baseline to discharge was associated with increased 30-day mortality/HF hospitalization in HFpEF patients with acute exacerbation. These findings suggest value in monitoring the trend of vital signs during HFpEF hospitalization.

Aims

Episodes of acute heart failure (AHF) may lead to end-organ dysfunction. In this post hoc analysis of the Relaxin in Acute Heart Failure trial, we used the MELD-XI (Model of End-Stage Liver Dysfunction) score to examine hepatorenal dysfunction in patients with AHF.

Methods and results

On admission, the MELD-XI score was elevated (abnormal) in 918 (82%) patients, with 638 (57%) having isolated renal dysfunction (creatinine > 1 mg/dL), 73 (6.5%) isolated liver dysfunction (bilirubin > 1 mg/dL), and 207 (18.5%) coexisting dysfunction of the kidneys and the liver (both creatinine and bilirubin > 1 mg/dL). The percentage of patients with elevated MELD-XI score remained constant through a 60 day follow-up, as we observed a gradual decrease of liver dysfunction prevalence, counterbalanced by an increase in renal dysfunction. Serelaxin treatment was associated with a lower MELD-XI score on Day 2 and Day 5 (both P < 0.05), but this difference vs. placebo disappeared during longer follow-up. In the multivariable model, an elevated MELD-XI score on admission was associated with higher 180 day mortality: hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for cardiovascular death were 3.10 (1.22-7.87), and for all-cause death 2.47 (1.19-5.15); both P < 0.05. The addition of the MELD-XI score to a prespecified prognostic model increased the discrimination of the model for all-cause death, but the increment in the C-index was only modest: 0.013 (P = 0.02).

Conclusions

In patients with AHF, hepatorenal dysfunction is prevalent and related to poor outcome. The MELD-XI score is a useful prognosticator in AHF.

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AFib) is a common comorbidity in HF and affects patients' outcome. We sought to assess the effects of serelaxin in patients with and without AFib.

Methods

In a post hoc analysis of the RELAX-AHF trial, we compared the effects of serelaxin on efficacy end points, safety end points and biomarkers in 1161 patients with and without AFib on admission electrocardiogram.

Results

AFib was present in 41.3% of patients. Serelaxin had a similar effect in patients with and without AFib, including dyspnea relief by visual analog scale through day 5 [mean change in area under the curve, 541.11 (33.79, 1048.44), p = 0.0366 in AFib versus 361.80 (-63.30, 786.90), p = 0.0953 in non-AFib, interaction p = 0.5954] and all-cause death through day 180 [HR = 0.42 (0.23, 0.77), p = 0.0051 in AFib versus 0.90 (0.53, 1.52), p = 0.6888 in non-AFib, interaction p = 0.0643]. Serelaxin was similarly safe in the two groups and induced similar reductions in biomarkers of cardiac, renal and hepatic damage. Stroke occurred more frequently in AFib patients (2.8 vs. 0.8%, p = 0.0116) and there was a trend for lower stroke incidence in the serelaxin arm in AFib patients (odds ratios, 0.31, p = 0.0759 versus 3.88, p = 0.2255 in non-AFib, interaction p = 0.0518).

Conclusions

Serelaxin was similarly safe and efficacious in improving short- and long-term outcomes and inducing organ protection in acute HF patients with and without AFib.

Aims

Currently, no acute heart failure (AHF) therapy definitively improves outcomes. Reducing morbidity and mortality from acute heart failure (AHF) remains an unmet need. TRV027 is a novel 'biased' ligand of the angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AT1R), selectively antagonizing the negative effects of angiotensin II, while preserving the potential pro-contractility effects of AT1R stimulation. BLAST-AHF was designed to determine the safety, efficacy, and optimal dose of TRV027 to advance into future studies.

Methods and results

BLAST-AHF was a multi-centre, international, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel group, phase IIb dose-ranging study, enrolling patients with AHF into 4 groups: placebo, 1, 5, or 25 mg/h of TRV027. Treatment was by IV infusion for 48-96 h. The primary composite endpoint was comprised of the following: (i) time from baseline to death through day 30, (ii) time from baseline to heart failure re-hospitalization through day 30, (iii) the first assessment time point following worsening heart failure through day 5, (iv) change in dyspnea visual analogue scale (VAS) score calculated as the area under the curve (AUC) representing the change from baseline over time from baseline through day 5, and (v) length of initial hospital stay (in days) from baseline. Analyses were by modified intention-to-treat. Overall, 621 patients were enrolled. After 254 patients, a pre-specified interim analysis resulted in several protocol changes, including a lower blood pressure inclusion criterion as well as a new allocation scheme of 2:1:2:1, overweighting both placebo, and the 5 mg/h dose. TRV027 did not confer any benefit over placebo at any dose with regards to the primary composite endpoint or any of the individual components. There were no significant safety issues with TRV027.

Conclusion

In this phase IIb dose-ranging AHF study, TRV027 did not improve clinical status through 30-day follow-up compared with placebo.

Background

Worsening heart failure (WHF) symptoms despite initial therapy during admission for acute heart failure (AHF) is associated with worse outcomes. The association between the time of the WHF event and the intensity of WHF therapy with outcomes is unknown.

Methods and results

In the PROTECT trial of 2033 AHF patients, we investigated the association between time of occurrence of WHF and intensity of therapy, with subsequent outcomes. WHF was defined by standardized, physician-determined assessment. Early WHF was defined as occurring on days 2-3 and late on days 4-7. Low intensity included restarting/increasing diuretics or vasodilators and high intensity included initiation of inotropes, vasopressors, inodilators, or mechanical support. Outcomes were death or cardiovascular/renal hospitalization over 60 days and death over 180 days. Of the 1879 patients with complete follow-up after day 7, 12.7% (n = 238) experienced WHF: 47.9% early and 52.1% late. Treatment intensity was low in 72.3% and high in 24.8% (2.9% missing). After adjusting for baseline predictors of outcome, WHF was associated with a trend toward increased 60-day death or cardiovascular/renal hospitalization [hazard ratio (HR) 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.99-1.60; P = 0.063] and increased 180-day death (HR 1.77; 95% CI 1.33-2.34; P < 0.001). There was no evidence of a differential association between the time of occurrence of WHF and outcomes. High-intensity therapy was not significantly associated with increased event rates (180-day mortality: HR 1.44; 95% CI 0.80-2.59 vs. low).

Conclusions

Inhospital WHF was associated with increased 180-day death. The time of occurrence and intensity of WHF therapy may provide less prognostic information than whether or not WHF occurred.