Purpose

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated, neuroinflammatory disease of the central nervous system and in industrialised countries is the most common cause of progressive neurological disability in working age persons. While treatable, there is substantial interindividual heterogeneity in disease activity and response to treatment. Currently, the ability to predict at diagnosis who will have a benign, intermediate or aggressive disease course is very limited. There is, therefore, a need for integrated predictive tools to inform individualised treatment decision making.

Participants

Established with the aim of addressing this need for individualised predictive tools, FutureMS is a nationally representative, prospective observational cohort study of 440 adults with a new diagnosis of relapsing-remitting MS living in Scotland at the time of diagnosis between May 2016 and March 2019.

Findings to date

The study aims to explore the pathobiology and determinants of disease heterogeneity in MS and combines detailed clinical phenotyping with imaging, genetic and biomarker metrics of disease activity and progression. Recruitment, baseline assessment and follow-up at year 1 is complete. Here, we describe the cohort design and present a profile of the participants at baseline and 1 year of follow-up.

Future plans

A third follow-up wave for the cohort has recently begun at 5 years after first visit and a further wave of follow-up is funded for year 10. Longer-term follow-up is anticipated thereafter.

Myelin loss is associated with axonal damage in established multiple sclerosis. This relationship is challenging to study in vivo in early disease. Here, we ask whether myelin loss is associated with axonal damage at diagnosis by combining non-invasive neuroimaging and blood biomarkers. We performed quantitative microstructural MRI and single-molecule ELISA plasma neurofilament measurement in 73 patients with newly diagnosed, immunotherapy naïve relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Myelin integrity was evaluated using aggregate g-ratios, derived from magnetization transfer saturation and neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging diffusion data. We found significantly higher g-ratios within cerebral white matter lesions (suggesting myelin loss) compared with normal-appearing white matter (0.61 versus 0.57, difference 0.036, 95% CI: 0.029-0.043, P < 0.001). Lesion volume (Spearman's rho r_s= 0.38, P < 0.001) and g-ratio (r_s= 0.24, P < 0.05) correlated independently with plasma neurofilament. In patients with substantial lesion load (n = 38), those with higher g-ratio (defined as greater than median) were more likely to have abnormally elevated plasma neurofilament than those with normal g-ratio (defined as less than median) [11/23 (48%) versus 2/15 (13%), P < 0.05]. These data suggest that, even at multiple sclerosis diagnosis, reduced myelin integrity is associated with axonal damage. MRI-derived g-ratio may provide useful additional information regarding lesion severity and help to identify individuals with a high degree of axonal damage at disease onset.