The limited accuracy of endoscopic biopsy in detecting high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma within ampullary adenoma or dysplasia has been reported. The natural history of ampullary dysplasia is also unclear, and there are no established guidelines to determine which patients with ampullary dysplasia require resection versus surveillance endoscopy. DNA flow cytometry was performed on 47 ampullary biopsies with low-grade dysplasia, 18 high-grade dysplasia, and 23 negative for dysplasia, as well as 11 cases of ampullary adenocarcinoma. Abnormal DNA content (aneuploidy or elevated 4N fraction > 6%) was identified in 9 (82%) of adenocarcinoma, 13 (72%) of high-grade dysplasia, 7 (15%) of low-grade dysplasia, and none (0%) of non-dysplastic mucosa. One-, 2-, and 7-year detection rates of high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma in low-grade dysplasia patients with abnormal DNA content were 57%, 86%, and 88%, respectively, whereas low-grade dysplasia patients in the setting of normal DNA content had 1-, 2-, and 7-year detection rates of 10%, 10%, and 10%, respectively. The univariate and multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) for subsequent detection of high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma in low-grade dysplasia patients with DNA content abnormality were 16.8 (p = <0.01) and 9.8 (p = <0.01), respectively. Among the 13 high-grade dysplasia patients with DNA content abnormality, 5 patients (38%) were subsequently found to have adenocarcinoma within a mean follow-up time of 3 months, whereas only 1 (20%) of the remaining 5 patients in the setting of normal DNA content developed adenocarcinoma in a month (HR = 2.6, p = 0.39). The overall 1- and 2-year detection rates of adenocarcinoma in all high-grade dysplasia patients (regardless of flow cytometric results) were 34% (95% confidence interval = 16-63%) and 47% (95% confidence interval = 23-79%), respectively. In conclusion, the majority of low-grade dysplasia patients (86%) in the setting of abnormal DNA content developed high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma within 2 years and thus may benefit from resection, whereas those with normal DNA content may be followed with surveillance endoscopy. The presence of DNA content abnormality can also confirm a morphologic suspicion of high-grade dysplasia, which should be managed with resection, as nearly 50% of the high-grade dysplasia patients were found to have adenocarcinoma within 2 years.

The distinction between well-differentiated intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) from its morphological mimics such as bile duct adenoma (BDA) and hamartoma (BDH) can be challenging, particularly in small biopsies. Although a few cases of BDA and BDH have been reported to undergo malignant transformation into iCCA, their neoplastic versus benign nature remains debated. DNA flow cytometry was performed on 47 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples of iCCA, 14 BDA, and 18 BDH. Aneuploidy was detected in 22 iCCA (47%) but in none of the 32 BDA and BDH samples. Among the 34 iCCA patients who underwent complete resection and were followed up to tumor recurrence, tumor-related death, or at least for 1 year, the overall recurrence or death rates (regardless of flow cytometric results) were 18, 56, and 71% within 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence or death rates in 18 iCCA patients with aneuploidy were 28, 66, and 66%, respectively, whereas 16 iCCA patients in the setting of normal DNA content had 1-, 3-, and 5-year rates of 6, 44, and 72%, respectively. Although aneuploid tumors were associated with worse outcomes during the first 3 years, this difference was not statistically significant (hazard ratio = 1.4, p = 0.473) in the present sample size. In conclusion, the frequency of aneuploidy was significantly higher in iCCA (47%) than in its benign morphological mimics (0%), suggesting that it may potentially serve as a diagnostic marker of malignancy in challenging situations. Our findings also suggest that most BDAs and BDHs, if not all, are benign entities and may not represent precursor lesions to iCCAs that often harbor aneuploidy. Although a larger cohort will be necessary to further determine the prognostic significance of aneuploidy in iCCA patients after resection, the patients with aneuploid tumors may have a higher risk for tumor progression, especially during the first 3 years.

Purpose: Kaposi sarcoma (KS) is a vascular tumor initiated by infection of endothelial cells (ECs) with KS-associated herpesvirus (KSHV). KS is dependent on sustained proinflammatory signals provided by intralesional leukocytes and continued infection of new ECs. However, the sources of these cytokines and infectious virus within lesions are not fully understood. Here, mast cells (MCs) are identified as proinflammatory cells within KS lesions that are permissive for, and activated by, infection with KSHV.Experimental Design: Three validated MC lines were used to assess permissivity of MCs to infection with KSHV and to evaluate MCs activation following infection. Biopsies from 31 AIDS-KS cases and 11 AIDS controls were evaluated by IHC for the presence of MCs in KS lesions and assessment of MC activation state and infection with KSHV. Plasma samples from 26 AIDS-KS, 13 classic KS, and 13 healthy adults were evaluated for levels of MC granule contents tryptase and histamine.Results: In culture, MCs supported latent and lytic KSHV infection, and infection-induced MC degranulation. Within KS lesions, MCs were closely associated with spindle cells. Furthermore, MC activation was extensive within patients with KS, reflected by elevated circulating levels of tryptase and a histamine metabolite. One patient with clinical signs of extensive MC activation was treated with antagonists of MC proinflammatory mediators, which resulted in a rapid and durable regression of AIDS-KS lesions.Conclusions: Using complimentary in vitro and in vivo studies we identify MCs as a potential long-lived reservoir for KSHV and a source of proinflammatory mediators within the KS lesional microenvironment. In addition, we identify MC antagonists as a promising novel therapeutic approach for KS. Clin Cancer Res; 24(20); 5085-97. ©2018 AACR.

It has been demonstrated that activated mast cells (MCs) are enriched in Kaposi sarcoma (KS) tumors and contribute to the inflammatory microenvironment. Mechanisms driving MC activation, however, are incompletely understood. We sought to understand whether immunoglobulin E (IgE), a potent activator of MCs, was associated with KS incidence and severity. In a cross-sectional study of untreated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults with or without KS in Uganda, we found that patients with KS had higher plasma IgE levels than those without KS. After adjustment for age, sex, CD4+ T-cell count, and HIV RNA levels, there was a dose-response relationship between plasma IgE levels and the presence and severity of KS. Higher eosinophil counts were also associated with IgE levels, and plasma interleukin 33 concentrations were higher in individuals with KS. These findings suggest that IgE-driven atopic inflammation may contribute the pathogenesis of KS. Therapies targeting IgE-mediated MC activation thus might represent a novel approach for treatment or prevention of KS.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.