INTRODUCTION: The mechanisms for atrial fibrillation (AF) are unclear in part because diverse mapping techniques yield diverse maps, ranging from stable organized sources to highly disordered waves. We hypothesized that AF mechanisms may be clarified if mapping techniques were compared in the same patients, and referenced to a clinical endpoint. We compared two independent AF mapping techniques in patients in whom ablation terminated persistent AF before pulmonary vein isolation (PVI). METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified 12 patients with persistent AF (61.2 ± 10.8 years, four female) in whom mapping with 64 pole baskets and technique 1 (activation/phase mapping, FIRM) identified rotational activation patterns during at least 50% of the 4-second mapping interval and targeted ablation at these rotational sites terminated AF to sinus rhythm (n = 10) or atrial tachycardia. We analyzed the unipolar electrograms of these patients to determine phase maps of activation by an independent technique 2 (Kuklik, Schotten et al., IEEE Trans Biomed Eng 2015). Compared to technique 1, technique 2 revealed a source in 12 of 12 (100%) cases with spatial concordance in all cases (P <0.05) and similar rotational characteristics. CONCLUSION: At sites where ablation terminated persistent AF, two independent mapping techniques identified stable rotational activation for multiple cycles that drove peripheral disorder. Future comparative studies referenced to a clinical endpoint may help reconcile if discrepancies between AF mapping studies reports represent techniques, patient populations or models of AF, and improve mapping to better guide ablation.

BACKGROUND: Advances in ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) continue to be hindered by ambiguities in mapping, even between experts. We hypothesized that convolutional neural networks (CNN) may enable objective analysis of intracardiac activation in AF, which could be applied clinically if CNN classifications could also be explained. METHODS: We performed panoramic recording of bi-atrial electrical signals in AF. We used the Hilbert-transform to produce 175 000 image grids in 35 patients, labeled for rotational activation by experts who showed consistency but with variability (kappa [κ]=0.79). In each patient, ablation terminated AF. A CNN was developed and trained on 100 000 AF image grids, validated on 25 000 grids, then tested on a separate 50 000 grids. RESULTS: In the separate test cohort (50 000 grids), CNN reproducibly classified AF image grids into those with/without rotational sites with 95.0% accuracy (CI, 94.8%-95.2%). This accuracy exceeded that of support vector machines, traditional linear discriminant, and k-nearest neighbor statistical analyses. To probe the CNN, we applied gradient-weighted class activation mapping which revealed that the decision logic closely mimicked rules used by experts (C statistic 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: CNNs improved the classification of intracardiac AF maps compared with other analyses and agreed with expert evaluation. Novel explainability analyses revealed that the CNN operated using a decision logic similar to rules used by experts, even though these rules were not provided in training. We thus describe a scaleable platform for robust comparisons of complex AF data from multiple systems, which may provide immediate clinical utility to guide ablation. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02997254. Graphic Abstract: A graphic abstract is available for this article.

Background Currently, there is limited research on the prognostic value of NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) as a biomarker in COVID-19. We proposed the a priori hypothesis that an elevated NT-proBNP concentration at admission is associated with increased in-hospital mortality. Methods and Results In this prospective, observational cohort study of the American Heart Association's COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry, 4675 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were divided into normal and elevated NT-proBNP cohorts by standard age-adjusted heart failure thresholds, as well as separated by quintiles. Patients with elevated NT-proBNP (n=1344; 28.7%) were older, with more cardiovascular risk factors, and had a significantly higher rate of in-hospital mortality (37% versus 16%; P<0.001) and shorter median time to death (7 versus 9 days; P<0.001) than those with normal values. Analysis by quintile of NT-proBNP revealed a steep graded relationship with mortality (7.1%-40.2%; P<0.001). NT-proBNP was also associated with major adverse cardiac events, intensive care unit admission, intubation, shock, and cardiac arrest (P<0.001 for each). In subgroup analyses, NT-proBNP, but not prior heart failure, was associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors with presenting vital signs, an elevated NT-proBNP was associated with 2-fold higher adjusted odds of death (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.23; 95% CI, 1.80-2.76), and the log-transformed NT-proBNP with other biomarkers projected a 21% increased risk of death for each 2-fold increase (adjusted OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.08-1.34). Conclusions Elevated NT-proBNP levels on admission for COVID-19 are associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality and other complications in patients with and without heart failure.

Background

Arbaclofen improved multiple abnormal phenotypes in animal models of fragile X syndrome (FXS) and showed promising results in a phase 2 clinical study. The objective of the study is to determine safety and efficacy of arbaclofen for social avoidance in FXS.

Methods

Two phase 3 placebo-controlled trials were conducted, a flexible dose trial in subjects age 12-50 (209FX301, adolescent/adult study) and a fixed dose trial in subjects age 5-11 (209FX302, child study). The primary endpoint for both trials was the Social Avoidance subscale of the Aberrant Behavior Checklist-Community Edition, FXS-specific (ABC-C_FX). Secondary outcomes included other ABC-C_FX subscale scores, Clinical Global Impression-Improvement (CGI-I), Clinical Global Impression-Severity (CGI-S), and Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, Second Edition (Vineland-II) Socialization domain score.

Results

A total 119 of 125 randomized subjects completed the adolescent/adult study (n = 57 arbaclofen, 62 placebo) and 159/172 completed the child study (arbaclofen 5 BID n = 38; 10 BID n = 39; 10 TID n = 38; placebo n = 44). There were no serious adverse events (AEs); the most common AEs included somatic (headache, vomiting, nausea), neurobehavioral (irritability/agitation, anxiety, hyperactivity), decreased appetite, and infectious conditions, many of which were also common on placebo. In the combined studies, there were 13 discontinuations (n = 12 arbaclofen, 1 placebo) due to AEs (all neurobehavioral). The adolescent/adult study did not show benefit for arbaclofen over placebo for any measure. In the child study, the highest dose group showed benefit over placebo on the ABC-C_FX Irritability subscale (p = 0.03) and Parenting Stress Index (PSI, p = 0.03) and trends toward benefit on the ABC-C_FX Social Avoidance and Hyperactivity subscales (both p < 0.1) and CGI-I (p = 0.119). Effect size in the highest dose group was similar to effect sizes for FDA-approved serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs).

Conclusions

Arbaclofen did not meet the primary outcome of improved social avoidance in FXS in either study. Data from secondary measures in the child study suggests younger patients may derive benefit, but additional studies with a larger cohort on higher doses would be required to confirm this finding. The reported studies illustrate the challenges but represent a significant step forward in translating targeted treatments from preclinical models to clinical trials in humans with FXS.

Several lines of emerging data point to an imbalance between neuronal excitation and inhibition in at least a subgroup of individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), including in those with fragile X syndrome (FXS), one of the most common genetic syndromes within ASD. In animal models of FXS and of ASD, GABA-B agonists have improved both brain and behavioral phenotypes, including social behavior. A phase 2 randomized, placebo-controlled, crossover trial found that the GABA-B agonist arbaclofen improved social avoidance symptoms in FXS. A pilot open-label trial of arbaclofen suggested similar benefits in ASD. We therefore evaluated arbaclofen in a randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 2 study of 150 participants, aged 5-21 years, with ASD. No difference from placebo was detected on the primary outcome measure, the parent-rated Aberrant Behavior Checklist Social Withdrawal/Lethargy subscale. However, a specified secondary analysis found improvement on the clinician-rated Clinical Global Impression of Severity. An exploratory post hoc analysis of participants with a consistent rater across the trial revealed greater improvement in the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales II socialization domain in participants receiving arbaclofen. Affect lability (11%) and sedation (9%) were the most common adverse events. In this exploratory study, secondary analyses suggest that arbaclofen may have the potential to improve symptoms in some children with ASD, but further study will be needed to replicate and extend these initial findings.

RATIONALE: Susceptibility to VT/VF (ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation) is difficult to predict in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy either by clinical tools or by attempting to translate cellular mechanisms to the bedside. OBJECTIVE: To develop computational phenotypes of patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy, by training then interpreting machine learning of ventricular monophasic action potentials (MAPs) to reveal phenotypes that predict long-term outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We recorded 5706 ventricular MAPs in 42 patients with coronary artery disease and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% during steady-state pacing. Patients were randomly allocated to independent training and testing cohorts in a 70:30 ratio, repeated K=10-fold. Support vector machines and convolutional neural networks were trained to 2 end points: (1) sustained VT/VF or (2) mortality at 3 years. Support vector machines provided superior classification. For patient-level predictions, we computed personalized MAP scores as the proportion of MAP beats predicting each end point. Patient-level predictions in independent test cohorts yielded c-statistics of 0.90 for sustained VT/VF (95% CI, 0.76-1.00) and 0.91 for mortality (95% CI, 0.83-1.00) and were the most significant multivariate predictors. Interpreting trained support vector machine revealed MAP morphologies that, using in silico modeling, revealed higher L-type calcium current or sodium-calcium exchanger as predominant phenotypes for VT/VF. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning of action potential recordings in patients revealed novel phenotypes for long-term outcomes in ischemic cardiomyopathy. Such computational phenotypes provide an approach which may reveal cellular mechanisms for clinical outcomes and could be applied to other conditions.

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is less prevalent in women versus men, but associated with higher risks of stroke and death in women. The role hormone therapy plays in AF is not well understood.

Methods and results

The Women's Health Initiative randomized postmenopausal women to placebo or conjugated equine estrogens (0.625 mg/d) plus medroxyprogesterone acetate (2.5 mg/d) if they had a uterus (N=16 608) or to conjugated equine estrogens only if they had prior hysterectomy (N=10 739). Incident AF was identified by ECG and diagnosis codes from Medicare claims or hospitalization records. Hazard ratios for incident AF were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. After excluding participants with baseline AF, there were 611 incident AF cases over a mean of 5.6 years among 16 128 estrogen plus progestin participants, and 683 cases over a mean of 7.1 years among 10 251 conjugated equine estrogens alone participants. Incident AF was more frequent in the active groups of both trials, reaching statistical significance in the trial of conjugated equine estrogens alone in women with prior hysterectomy (hazard ratio, 1.17; CI, 1.00-1.36; P=0.045) and in the pooled analysis (hazard ratio, 1.12; CI, 1.00-1.24; P=0.05), but not in the estrogen plus progestin trial (hazard ratio, 1.07; CI, 0.91-1.25; P=0.44). These results were only minimally affected by adjustment for incident stroke, coronary heart disease, and heart failure.

Conclusions

Incident AF was modestly elevated in hysterectomized women randomized to postmenopausal E-alone, and in the pooled group randomized to E-alone or estrogen plus progestin. The trend in women with intact uterus receiving estrogen plus progestin, considered separately, was not statistically significant.

Clinical trial registration information

ClinicalTrials.gov; Identifier: NCT00000611.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms by which persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) terminates via localized ablation are not well understood. To address the hypothesis that sites where localized ablation terminates persistent AF have characteristics identifiable with activation mapping during AF, we systematically examined activation patterns acquired only in cases of unequivocal termination by ablation. METHODS AND RESULTS: We recruited 57 patients with persistent AF undergoing ablation, in whom localized ablation terminated AF to sinus rhythm or organized tachycardia. For each site, we performed an offline analysis of unprocessed unipolar electrograms collected during AF from multipolar basket catheters using the maximum -dV/dt assignment to construct isochronal activation maps for multiple cycles. Additional computational modeling and phase analysis were used to study mechanisms of map variability. At all sites of AF termination, localized repetitive activation patterns were observed. Partial rotational circuits were observed in 26 of 57 (46%) cases, focal patterns in 19 of 57 (33%), and complete rotational activity in 12 of 57 (21%) cases. In computer simulations, incomplete segments of partial rotations coincided with areas of slow conduction characterized by complex, multicomponent electrograms, and variations in assigning activation times at such sites substantially altered mapped mechanisms. CONCLUSIONS: Local activation mapping at sites of termination of persistent AF showed repetitive patterns of rotational or focal activity. In computer simulations, complete rotational activation sequence was observed but was sensitive to assignment of activation timing particularly in segments of slow conduction. The observed phenomena of repetitive localized activation and the mechanism by which local ablation terminates putative AF drivers require further investigation.

[Figure: see text].