In many ecosystems the effects of disturbance can be cryptic and disturbance may vary in subtle spatiotemporal ways. For instance, we know that bark beetle outbreaks are more frequent in temperate forests during droughts; however, we have little idea about why they occur in some locations and not others. Understanding biotic and abiotic factors promoting bark beetle outbreaks can be critical to predicting and responding to pest outbreaks. Here we address the environmental factors which are associated with Ips confusus outbreaks during the 2002 widespread drought within the distribution range of pinyon pine woodlands in Arizona. We used univariate statistics to test if whether tree characteristics, other herbivores, stand properties, soil type, wind, and topography were associated with I. confusus outbreak, and logistic regression to create a predictive model for the outbreaks. We found that I. confusus attacks occur in low elevation stands on steeper slopes, where favorable winds for I. confusus dispersion occur. I. confusus select larger trees, in high density stands with understory shrubs that exhibit phenotypic traits characteristic of resistance to stem-boring moths. The model was highly accurate, and explained 95% of the variability in occurrence (98% of the absences and 95% of the presences). Accurate prediction of the impacts of disturbance allow us to anticipate, minimize or mitigate for and eventually counteract its effects, especially those affecting diversity and ecosystem function. Identification of outbreak risk areas can guide regional and national management towards the reduction of infestation risk and enhancing conservation of pinyon-juniper woodlands.

Decomposing leaf litter in streams provides habitat and nutrition for aquatic insects. Despite large differences in the nutritional qualities of litter among different plant species, their effects on aquatic insects are often difficult to detect. We evaluated how leaf litter of two dominant riparian species (Populus fremontii and P. angustifolia) influenced carbon and nitrogen assimilation by aquatic insect communities, quantifying assimilation rates using stable isotope tracers (13C, 15N). We tested the hypothesis that element fluxes from litter of different plant species better define aquatic insect community structure than insect relative abundances, which often fail. We found that (1) functional communities (defined by fluxes of carbon and nitrogen from leaf litter to insects) were different between leaf litter species, whereas more traditional insect communities (defined by relativized taxa abundances) were not different between leaf litter species, (2) insects assimilated N, but not C, at a higher rate from P. angustifolia litter compared to P. fremontii, even though P. angustifolia decomposes more slowly, and (3) the C:N ratio of material assimilated by aquatic insects was lower for P. angustifolia compared to P. fremontii, indicating higher nutritional quality, despite similar initial litter C:N ratios. These findings provide new evidence for the effects of terrestrial plant species on aquatic ecosystems via their direct influence on the transfer of elements up the food web. We demonstrate how isotopically labeled leaf litter can be used to assess the functioning of insect communities, uncovering patterns undetected by traditional approaches and improving our understanding of the association between food web structure and element cycling.

Increasing heatwaves are threatening forest ecosystems globally. Leaf thermal regulation and tolerance are important for plant survival during heatwaves, though the interaction between these processes and water availability is unclear. Genotypes of the widely distributed foundation tree species Populus fremontii were studied in a controlled common garden during a record summer heatwave-where air temperature exceeded 48 °C. When water was not limiting, all genotypes cooled leaves 2 to 5 °C below air temperatures. Homeothermic cooling was disrupted for weeks following a 72-h reduction in soil water, resulting in leaf temperatures rising 3 °C above air temperature and 1.3 °C above leaf thresholds for physiological damage, despite the water stress having little effect on leaf water potentials. Tradeoffs between leaf thermal safety and hydraulic safety emerged but, regardless of water use strategy, all genotypes experienced significant leaf mortality following water stress. Genotypes from warmer climates showed greater leaf cooling and less leaf mortality after water stress in comparison with genotypes from cooler climates. These results illustrate how brief soil water limitation disrupts leaf thermal regulation and potentially compromises plant survival during extreme heatwaves, thus providing insight into future scenarios in which ecosystems will be challenged with extreme heat and unreliable soil water access.

Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimate seed contributions from large trees if fecundity eventually declines with size. Current estimates are dominated by overrepresentation of small trees in regression models. We combined global fecundity data, including a substantial representation of large trees. We compared size-fecundity relationships against traditional allometric scaling with diameter and two models based on crown architecture. All allometric models fail to describe the declining rate of increase in fecundity with diameter found for 80% of 597 species in our analysis. The strong evidence of declining fecundity, beyond what can be explained by crown architectural change, is consistent with physiological decline. A downward revision of projected fecundity of large trees can improve the next generation of forest dynamic models.

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.