Continuously time variable sources are often characterized by their power spectral density and flux distribution. These quantities can undergo dramatic changes over time if the underlying physical processes change. However, some changes can be subtle and not distinguishable using standard statistical approaches. Here, we report a methodology that aims to identify distinct but similar states of time variability. We apply this method to the Galactic supermassive black hole, where 2.2 μm flux is observed from a source associated with Sgr A* and where two distinct states have recently been suggested. Our approach is taken from mathematical finance and works with conditional flux density distributions that depend on the previous flux value. The discrete, unobserved (hidden) state variable is modeled as a stochastic process and the transition probabilities are inferred from the flux density time series. Using the most comprehensive data set to date, in which all Keck and a majority of the publicly available Very Large Telescope data have been merged, we show that Sgr A* is sufficiently described by a single intrinsic state. However, the observed flux densities exhibit two states: noise dominated and source dominated. Our methodology reported here will prove extremely useful to assess the effects of the putative gas cloud G2 that is on its way toward the black hole and might create a new state of variability. © 2014. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.

We present the first detection from the Spitzer Space Telescope of 4.5 μm variability from Sgr A∗, the emitting source associated with the Milky Way's central black hole. The >23 hr continuous light curve was obtained with the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) instrument in 2013 December. The result characterizes the variability of Sgr A∗ prior to the closest approach of the tidally deformed G2 object, a putative infalling gas cloud that orbits close to Sgr A∗. The high stellar density at the location of Sgr A∗ produces a background of ∼250 mJy at 4.5 μm in each pixel with a large pixel-to-pixel gradient, but the light curve for the highly variable Sgr A∗ source was successfully measured by modeling and removing the variations due to pointing wobble. The observed flux densities range from the noise level of ∼ksim;0.7 mJy rms in a 6.4 s measurement to ≳10 mJy. Emission was seen above the noise level ∼ksim;34% of the time. The light-curve characteristics, including the flux density distribution and structure function, are consistent with those previously derived at shorter infrared wavelengths. We see no evidence in the light curve for activity attributable to the G2 interaction at the observing epoch, ∼ksim;100 days before the expected G2 periapsis passage. The IRAC light curve is more than a factor of two longer than any previous infrared observation, improving constraints on the timescale of the break in the power spectral distribution of Sgr A∗ flux densities. The data favor the longer of the two previously published values for the timescale.

We present new observations and analysis of G2 - the intriguing red emission-line object which is quickly approaching the Galaxy's central black hole. The observations were obtained with the laser guide star adaptive optics systems on the W. M. Keck I and II telescopes (2006-2012) and include spectroscopy (R ∼ 3600) centered on the hydrogen Brγ line as well as K' (2.1 μm) and L' (3.8 μm) imaging. Analysis of these observations shows the Brγ line emission has a positional offset from the L' continuum. This offset is likely due to background source confusion at L'. We therefore present the first orbital solution derived from Brγ line astrometry, which, when coupled with radial velocity measurements, results in a later time of closest approach (2014.21 ± 0.14), closer periastron (130 AU, 1600 R s), and higher eccentricity (0.9814 ± 0.0060) compared to a solution using L' astrometry. It is shown that G2 has no K' counterpart down to K' ∼ 20 mag. G2's L' continuum and the Brγ line emission appears unresolved in almost all epochs, which implies that the bulk of the emission resides in a compact region. The observations altogether suggest that while G2 has a gaseous component that is tidally interacting with the central black hole, there is likely a central star providing the self-gravity necessary to sustain the compact nature of this object. © 2013. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.

Emission from Saggitarius A* is highly variable at both X-ray and infrared (IR) wavelengths. Observations over the last ~20 yr have revealed X-ray flares that rise above a quiescent thermal background about once per day, while faint X-ray flares from Sgr A* are undetectable below the constant thermal emission. In contrast, the IR emission of Sgr A* is observed to be continuously variable. Recently, simultaneous observations have indicated a rise in IR flux density around the same time as every distinct X-ray flare, while the opposite is not always true (peaks in the IR emission may not be coincident with an X-ray flare). Characterizing the behavior of these simultaneous X-ray/IR events and measuring any time lag between them can constrain models of Sgr A*'s accretion flow and the flare emission mechanism. Using 100+ hours of data from a coordinated campaign between the Spitzer Space Telescope and the Chandra X-ray Observatory, we present results of the longest simultaneous IR and X-ray observations of Sgr A* taken to date. The cross-correlation between the IR and X-ray light curves in this unprecedented data set, which includes four modest X-ray/IR flares, indicates that flaring in the X-ray may lead the IR by approximately 10-20 min with 68% confidence. However, the 99.7% confidence interval on the time-lag also includes zero, i.e., the flaring remains statistically consistent with simultaneity. Long-duration and simultaneous multi-wavelength observations of additional bright flares will improve our ability to constrain the flare timing characteristics and emission mechanisms, and must be a priority for Galactic Center observing campaigns.

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prior probability distributions (priors) that can improve orbital solutions for low-phase-coverage orbits, where data cover less than ∼40% of an orbit. In instances of low phase coverage - such as with stellar orbits in the Galactic center or with directly imaged exoplanets - data have low constraining power and thus priors can bias parameter estimates and produce underestimated confidence intervals. Uniform priors, which are commonly assumed in orbit fitting, are notorious for this. We propose a new observable-based prior paradigm that is based on uniformity in observables. We compare performance of this observable-based prior and of commonly assumed uniform priors using Galactic center and directly imaged exoplanet (HR 8799) data. The observable-based prior can reduce biases in model parameters by a factor of two and helps avoid underestimation of confidence intervals for simulations with less than ∼40% phase coverage. Above this threshold, orbital solutions for objects with sufficient phase coverage - such as S0-2, a short-period star at the Galactic center with full phase coverage - are consistent with previously published results. Below this threshold, the observable-based prior limits prior influence in regions of prior dominance and increases data influence. Using the observable-based prior, HR 8799 orbital analyses favor low-eccentricity orbits and provide stronger evidence that the four planets have a consistent inclination of ∼30° to within 1σ. This analysis also allows for the possibility of coplanarity. We present metrics to quantify improvements in orbital estimates with different priors so that observable-based prior frameworks can be tested and implemented for other low-phase-coverage orbits.

We present new, more precise measurements of the mass and distance of our Galaxy's central supermassive black hole, Sgr A∗. These results stem from a new analysis that more than doubles the time baseline for astrometry of faint stars orbiting Sgr A∗, combining 2 decades of speckle imaging and adaptive optics data. Specifically, we improve our analysis of the speckle images by using information about a star's orbit from the deep adaptive optics data (2005-2013) to inform the search for the star in the speckle years (1995-2005). When this new analysis technique is combined with the first complete re-reduction of Keck Galactic Center speckle images using speckle holography, we are able to track the short-period star S0-38 (K-band magnitude = 17, orbital period = 19 yr) through the speckle years. We use the kinematic measurements from speckle holography and adaptive optics to estimate the orbits of S0-38 and S0-2 and thereby improve our constraints of the mass (M bh) and distance (R o) of Sgr A∗: M bh = (4.02 ±0.16 ±0.04) x106 M o and 7.86 ±0.14 ±0.04 kpc. The uncertainties in M bh and R o as determined by the combined orbital fit of S0-2 and S0-38 are improved by a factor of 2 and 2.5, respectively, compared to an orbital fit of S0-2 alone and a factor of ∼2.5 compared to previous results from stellar orbits. This analysis also limits the extended dark mass within 0.01 pc to less than 0.13 x106 M o at 99.7% confidence, a factor of 3 lower compared to prior work.

We give an update of the observations and analysis of G2 - the gaseous red emission-line object that is on a very eccentric orbit around the Galaxy's central black hole and predicted to come within 2400 RS in early 2014. During 2013, the laser guide star adaptive optics systems on the W. M. Keck I and II telescopes were used to obtain three epochs of spectroscopy and imaging at the highest spatial resolution currently possible in the near-IR. The updated orbital solution derived from radial velocities in addition to Br-γ line astrometry is consistent with our earlier estimates. Strikingly, even ~ 6 months before pericenter passage there is no perceptible deviation from a Keplerian orbit. We furthermore show that a proposed "tail" of G2 is likely not associated with it but is rather an independent gas structure. We also show that G2 does not seem to be unique, since several red emission-line objects can be found in the central arcsecond. Taken together, it seems more likely that G2 is ultimately stellar in nature, although there is clearly gas associated with it. Copyright © International Astronomical Union 2014.

We demonstrate that short-period stars orbiting around the supermassive black hole in our Galactic center can successfully be used to probe the gravitational theory in a strong regime. We use 19 years of observations of the two best measured short-period stars orbiting our Galactic center to constrain a hypothetical fifth force that arises in various scenarios motivated by the development of a unification theory or in some models of dark matter and dark energy. No deviation from general relativity is reported and the fifth force strength is restricted to an upper 95% confidence limit of |α|<0.016 at a length scale of λ=150 astronomical units. We also derive a 95% confidence upper limit on a linear drift of the argument of periastron of the short-period star S0-2 of |ω[over ˙]_{S0-2}|<1.6×10^{-3}  rad/yr, which can be used to constrain various gravitational and astrophysical theories. This analysis provides the first fully self-consistent test of the gravitational theory using orbital dynamic in a strong gravitational regime, that of a supermassive black hole. A sensitivity analysis for future measurements is also presented.

Sgr A*, the supermassive black hole (SMBH) at the center of our Milky Way Galaxy, is known to be a variable source of X-ray, near-infrared (NIR), and submillimeter radiation and therefore a prime candidate to study the electromagnetic radiation generated by mass accretion flow onto a black hole and/or a related jet. Disentangling the power source and emission mechanisms of this variability is a central challenge to our understanding of accretion flows around SMBHs. Simultaneous multiwavelength observations of the flux variations and their time correlations can play an important role in obtaining a better understanding of possible emission mechanisms and their origin. This paper presents observations of two flares that both apparently violate the previously established patterns in the relative timing of submillimeter/NIR/X-ray flares from Sgr A*. One of these events provides the first evidence of coeval structure between NIR and submillimeter flux increases, while the second event is the first example of the sequence of submillimeter/X-ray/NIR flux increases all occurring within ~1 hr. Each of these two events appears to upend assumptions that have been the basis of some analytic models of flaring in Sgr A*. However, it cannot be ruled out that these events, even though unusual, were just coincidental. These observations demonstrate that we do not fully understand the origin of the multiwavelength variability of Sgr A* and show that there is a continued and important need for long-term, coordinated, and precise multiwavelength observations of Sgr A* to characterize the full range of variability behavior.

We report new observations of the Galactic Center source G2 from the W. M. Keck Observatory. G2 is a dusty red object associated with gas that shows tidal interactions as it nears its closest approach with the Galaxy's central black hole. Our observations, conducted as G2 passed through periapse, were designed to test the proposal that G2 is a 3 Earth mass gas cloud. Such a cloud should be tidally disrupted during periapse passage. The data were obtained using the Keck II laser guide star adaptive optics system (LGSAO) and the facility near-infrared camera (NIRC2) through the K′ [2.1 μm] and L′ [3.8 μm] broadband filters. Several results emerge from these observations: (1) G2 has survived its closest approach to the black hole as a compact, unresolved source at L′, (2) G2's L′ brightness measurements are consistent with those over the last decade, (3) G2's motion continues to be consistent with a Keplerian model. These results rule out G2 as a pure gas cloud and imply that G2 has a central star. This star has a luminosity of ∼30 L⊙ and is surrounded by a large (∼2.6 AU) optically thick dust shell. The differences between the L′ and Br-γ observations can be understood with a model in which L′ and Br-γ emission arises primarily from internal and external heating, respectively. We suggest that G2 is a binary star merger product and will ultimately appear similar to the B-stars that are tightly clustered around the black hole (the so-called S-star cluster).