Taditionally, watershed-scale hydrology is simulated by distributed hydrological models with offline meteorological forcing data, or by regional regional climate models that link atmospheric and land hydrology interactions. Global climate model (GCMs) are rarely used to study watershed-scale hydrology due to the relatively coarse grid resolution, computationally expensive downscaling, and simplified physical processes. Recently, however, watershed-scale hydrology analysis has become possible in GCMs due to the development of variable-resolution GCMs that dynamically couple the hydrological processes between atmospheric and land systems at fine resolutions in selected regions and coarse resolution elsewhere. In this study, we used the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with refined-resolution (14 km) in the western U.S. and eastern China to evaluate smaller watershed-scale hydrology. We compared the historical VR-CESM outputs with gauge measurements and other hydrological models (e.g., National Water Model in the U.S.) and calibrated the subsurface runoff capacities in four mountainous watersheds. An RCP8.5 projection from 2007 to 2050 is used to estimate the impact of changing precipitation and snow climatology on watershed hydrology. We also analyzed the long-term runoff variability and the possibility of extreme runoff events as simulated by the VR-CESM. Although calibration is not possible in larger-scale watersheds, VR-CESM simulates the long-term annual variability of watersheds and provides insights on climate change impacts on hydrology. We conclude that refined-resolution VR-CESM can be used for watershed-scale hydrology analysis to understand water resources and water balance, in addition to traditional watershed-scale hydrological models. It enables hydrological analysis at multiple watersheds in one simulation and can help understand the two-way dynamics between land surface hydrology and atmospheric processes, and is especially practical for projecting climate change impacts. However, it is challenging to apply VR-CESM for hydrologic analysis in regulated watersheds as human factors (e.g., pumping, irrigation, water diversion) have not been fully addressed in VR-CESM.

A hybrid discrete-continuum numerical model, Variable-Density Flow and Solute Transport—Conduit Flow Process (VDFST-CFP), is developed to simulate seawater intrusion to a coastal karst aquifer with a conduit network. The Darcy-Weisbach equation is applied to simulate the nonlaminar groundwater flow in the conduit system that is conceptualized as pipes, while the Darcy equation is used for laminar groundwater flow in the continuum porous medium. Density-dependent groundwater flow with appropriate additional density terms in the conduit is analytically derived. The flow and transport equations are coupled, and numerically solved by the finite difference method with an implicit iteration procedure. Two synthetic benchmarks are developed to compare the VDFST-CFP model results with other numerical models, such as the variable-density SEAWAT, constant-density continuum MODFLOW/MT3DMS, and constant-density discrete-continuum CFPv2/UMT3D models. The VDFST-CFP model compares reasonably well with the other model results in both conduit and porous medium domains, and well describes water and salt exchange between the two systems. Under turbulent flow conditions within the conduit, the Darcy-Weisbach equation calculates the flow rate more accurately without overestimation by the Darcy equation. Sensitivity analysis indicates that conduit diameter, friction factor, matrix hydraulic conductivity, and effective medium porosity are important parameters in the VDFST-CFP model. The pros and cons of the VDFST-CFP model are discussed, including the model assumptions and simplifications, limitations of the discrete-continuum modeling method, and the convergence criteria. In general, the newly developed VDFST-CFP model provides a new numerical modeling method for simulating seawater intrusion in a coastal karst aquifer with conduits.

This paper provides a review of over thirty years of research and investigation in the Woodville Karst Plain (WKP) in northern Florida, which is representative of the Floridan Aquifer system, a karst aquifer in the southeastern United States. The WKP is a well-developed karst region where over 40 km of subsurface conduits are mapped by divers and tracer tests, and connected to Wakulla Spring, one of the largest freshwater springs in the U.S. Furthermore, the conduit networks expand and interact with seawater via the connection to a submarine spring, and impact groundwater flow cycle in the aquifer. Numerical models, based on multiple field investigations, have been developed to quantify the understanding of hydrogeologic processes in the WKP. Novel modeling approaches with capabilities were developed to simulate seawater and groundwater interaction in this dual-permeability aquifer. The WKP site has served as a valuable natural observatory for a series of studies documented in this paper to understand groundwater flow, contaminant transport and seawater intrusion in the well-developed karst subsurface system.

Increasing risk of many natural hazards including floods, wildfires, and reduction of agricultural production are often due to extreme climate events such as heavy precipitation, heat waves and drought. In this study, the variable-resolution Community Earth system model (VR-CESM) was used to investigate potential changes in extreme climate events at refined-resolution (14 km) in the western U.S. and eastern China. The model performance for simulating climate extremes is evaluated by various extreme metrics and assessed against the PRISM reference dataset in the U.S. VR-CESM is also compared with other models at different resolutions, including the uniform coarser resolution model CESM with the same physical parameterization, and HadGEM2-WRF, one RCM in the CORDEX-NA ensembles with the same SST forcing as the GCMs. Among those precipitation extreme metrics, VR-CESM simulates the short-term daily metrics (e.g., 95th percentile precipitation) in the western U.S. well (with greater uncertainties in the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Mountains), but underestimates the long-term metrics (e.g., number of dry years) during the historical period. For temperature extremes, VR-CESM also overestimates the number of hot temperature extremes in California's Central Valley and southwestern desert regions; this is consistent with the warm seasonal average JJA biases. In model intercomparisons, VR-CESM has smaller biases than CESM and HadGEM2-WRF for both extreme precipitation and temperature events. Additionally, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for all models is simulated at four watersheds and compared to the PRISM reference dataset with statistical testings for their similarities. Under RCP8.5 through 2050, VR-CESM projects stronger and more frequent extreme precipitation in the mountains and hot events in the deserts of the western U.S., with more wet periods in California as indicated by PDSI. In another VR-CESM refined-resolution region in China, VR-CESM projection indicates an increase in strength and magnitude of extreme precipitation in southern China and hot temperature extremes in eastern China. Geographic heterogeneity in PDSI projections is also evident as the North China Plain is projected to have more dry periods while the Three Gorges Basin is projected to not change much. This study demonstrates that the analysis of multiple extreme metrics is essential to provide an adequate understanding of how extremes may change in the future in a particular place.

Long-distance seawater intrusion has been widely observed through the subsurface conduit system in coastal karst aquifers as a source of groundwater contaminant. In this study, seawater intrusion in a dual-permeability karst aquifer with conduit networks is studied by the two-dimensional density-dependent flow and transport SEAWAT model. Local and global sensitivity analyses are used to evaluate the impacts of boundary conditions and hydrological characteristics on modeling seawater intrusion in a karst aquifer, including hydraulic conductivity, effective porosity, specific storage, and dispersivity of the conduit network and of the porous medium. The local sensitivity analysis evaluates the parameters' sensitivities for modeling seawater intrusion, specifically in the Woodville Karst Plain (WKP). A more comprehensive interpretation of parameter sensitivities, including the nonlinear relationship between simulations and parameters, and/or parameter interactions, is addressed in the global sensitivity analysis. The conduit parameters and boundary conditions are important to the simulations in the porous medium because of the dynamical exchanges between the two systems. The sensitivity study indicates that salinity and head simulations in the karst features, such as the conduit system and submarine springs, are critical for understanding seawater intrusion in a coastal karst aquifer. The evaluation of hydraulic conductivity sensitivity in the continuum SEAWAT model may be biased since the conduit flow velocity is not accurately calculated by Darcy's equation as a function of head difference and hydraulic conductivity. In addition, dispersivity is no longer an important parameter in an advection-dominated karst aquifer with a conduit system, compared to the sensitivity results in a porous medium aquifer. In the end, the extents of seawater intrusion are quantitatively evaluated and measured under different scenarios with the variabilities of important parameters identified from sensitivity results, including salinity at the submarine spring with rainfall recharge, sea level rise, and a longer simulation time under an extended low rainfall period.

This introductory editorial paper provides a review and prospective outlook of the achievements and challenges in karst research under a changing environment. A brief discussion of the past and future karst research has been focused on: (1) data and new technologies; (2) modeling of karst flow and reactive transport; (3) responses of karst hydrosystems to climate variability and changes across scales.

VDFST-CFP (variable-density flow and solute transport–conduit flow process) is a density-dependent discrete-continuum numerical model for simulating seawater intrusion in a dual-permeability coastal karst aquifer. A previous study (Xu and Hu 2017) simulates variable-density flow only in a single conduit, and studies the parameter sensitivities only in the horizontal case (2D domain as horizontal section) by the VDFST-CFP model. This paper focuses on the density-dependent vertical case (2D domain as vertical section) with two major improvements: 1) when implementing double-conduit networks in the domain, simulated intruded plumes in the porous medium are extended in the double-conduit scenario, compared to the single-conduit system; 2) by quantifying micro-textures on the conduit wall by the Goudar-Sonnad equation and considering macro-structures as local head loss. Sensitivity analysis shows that medium hydraulic conductivity, conduit diameter and effective porosity are important parameters for simulating seawater intrusion in the discrete-continuum system. On the other hand, rougher micro-structures and additional macro-structure components on the conduit wall would reduce the distance of seawater intrusion to the conduit system, but, rarely affect salinity distribution in the matrix. Compared to the equivalent mean roughness height, the new method (with more detailed description of structure) simulates seawater intrusion slightly landward in the conduit system. The macro-structure measured by local head loss is more reasonable but needs further study on conduit flow. Xu and Hu (2017) Development of a discrete-continuum VDFST-CFP numerical model for simulating seawater intrusion to a coastal karst aquifer with a conduit system. Water Resources Research: 53, 688-711.

Five periods of increased electrical conductivity have been found in the karst conduits supplying one of the largest first magnitude springs in Florida with water. Numerous well-developed conduit networks are distributed in the Woodville Karst Plain (WKP), Florida and connected to the Gulf of Mexico. A composite analysis of precipitation and electrical conductivity data provides strong evidence that the increases in conductivity are directly tied to seawater intrusion moving inland and traveling 11 miles against the prevailing regional hydraulic gradient from from Spring Creek Spring Complex (SCSC), a group of submarine springs at the Gulf Coast. A geochemical analysis of samples from the spring vent rules out anthropogenic contamination and upwelling regional recharge from the deep aquifer as sources of the rising conductivity. The interpretation is supported by the conceptual model established by prior researchers working to characterize the study area. This paper documents the first and longest case of seawater intrusion in the WKP, and also indicates significant possibility of seawater contamination through subsurface conduit networks in a coastal karst aquifer.

In the original publication, the author name Andrew Hartmann was published incorrectly. The correct name should be Andreas Hartmann.