Purpose

Atezolizumab + bevacizumab is the new standard of care for systemic treatment-naïve, unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This exploratory study investigated on-treatment alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response as a potential surrogate biomarker of prognosis for the combination therapy.

Experimental design

Data from Group A of the phase Ib GO30140 study were used to identify the optimal time for AFP measurement and AFP cutoffs to differentiate patients by their best confirmed response per independent review facility-assessed RECIST (IRF-RECIST) version 1.1: responders from nonresponders and patients with disease control from primary progressors. We applied these cutoffs to independent data from the atezolizumab + bevacizumab arm of the phase III IMbrave150 trial to distinguish patients based on (i) overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) per IRF-RECIST 1.1 and (ii) best confirmed response per IRF-RECIST 1.1.

Results

We derived AFP cutoffs of ≥75% decrease and ≤10% increase from baseline at 6 weeks to identify responders and those who had disease control, respectively. These cutoffs had high sensitivity and specificity in GO30140. In IMbrave150 patients, sensitivity was 0.59 and specificity was 0.86 for the ≥75% decrease AFP cutoff; the sensitivity was 0.77 and specificity was 0.44 for the ≤10% increase AFP cutoff. Both AFP cutoffs were associated with longer OS and PFS, particularly in patients with hepatitis B virus etiology (HR < 0.5; P < 0.01).

Conclusions

AFP response at 6 weeks after initiating treatment is a potential surrogate biomarker of prognosis for patients with HCC receiving atezolizumab + bevacizumab. See related commentary by Cappuyns and Llovet, p. 3405.

Although traditional chemotherapy kills a fraction of tumor cells, it also activates the stroma and can promote the growth and survival of residual cancer cells to foster tumor recurrence and metastasis. Accordingly, overcoming the host response induced by chemotherapy could substantially improve therapeutic outcome and patient survival. In this study, resistance to treatment and metastasis has been attributed to expansion of stem-like tumor-initiating cells (TICs). Molecular analysis of the tumor stroma in neoadjuvant chemotherapy-treated human desmoplastic cancers and orthotopic tumor xenografts revealed that traditional maximum-tolerated dose chemotherapy, regardless of the agents used, induces persistent STAT-1 and NF-κB activity in carcinoma-associated fibroblasts. This induction results in the expression and secretion of ELR motif-positive (ELR⁺) chemokines, which signal through CXCR-2 on carcinoma cells to trigger their phenotypic conversion into TICs and promote their invasive behaviors, leading to paradoxical tumor aggression after therapy. In contrast, the same overall dose administered as a low-dose metronomic chemotherapy regimen largely prevented therapy-induced stromal ELR⁺ chemokine paracrine signaling, thus enhancing treatment response and extending survival of mice carrying desmoplastic cancers. These experiments illustrate the importance of stroma in cancer therapy and how its impact on treatment resistance could be tempered by altering the dosing schedule of systemic chemotherapy.