The absolute binding free energies and binding enthalpies of twelve host-guest systems in the SAMPL5 blind challenge were computed using our attach-pull-release (APR) approach. This method has previously shown good correlations between experimental and calculated binding data in retrospective studies of cucurbit[7]uril (CB7) and β-cyclodextrin (βCD) systems. In the present work, the computed binding free energies for host octa acid (OA or OAH) and tetra-endo-methyl octa-acid (TEMOA or OAMe) with guests are in good agreement with prospective experimental data, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.8 and root-mean-squared error of 1.7 kcal/mol using the TIP3P water model. The binding enthalpy calculations achieve moderate correlations, with R² of 0.5 and RMSE of 2.5 kcal/mol, for TIP3P water. Calculations using the newly developed OPC water model also show good performance. Furthermore, the present calculations semi-quantitatively capture the experimental trend of enthalpy-entropy compensation observed, and successfully predict guests with the strongest and weakest binding affinity. The most populated binding poses of all twelve systems, based on clustering analysis of 750 ns molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories, were extracted and analyzed. Computational methods using MD simulations and explicit solvent models in a rigorous statistical thermodynamic framework, like APR, can generate reasonable predictions of binding thermodynamics. Especially with continuing improvement in simulation force fields, such methods hold the promise of making substantial contributions to hit identification and lead optimization in the drug discovery process.

Dissolved salts are a part of the physiological milieu and can significantly influence the kinetics and thermodynamics of various biomolecular processes, such as binding and catalysis; thus, it is important for molecular simulations to reliably describe their effects. The present study uses a simple, nonionized host-guest model system to study the sensitivity of computed binding enthalpies to the choice of water and salt models. Molecular dynamics simulations of a cucurbit[7]uril host with a neutral guest molecule show striking differences in the salt dependency of the binding enthalpy across four water models, TIP3P, SPC/E, TIP4P-Ew, and OPC, with additional sensitivity to the choice of parameters for sodium and chloride. In particular, although all of the models predict that binding will be less exothermic with increasing NaCl concentration, the strength of this effect varies by 7 kcal/mol across models. The differences appear to result primarily from differences in the number of sodium ions displaced from the host upon binding the guest rather than from differences in the enthalpy associated with this displacement, and it is the electrostatic energy that contributes most to the changes in enthalpy with increasing salt concentration. That a high sensitivity of salt affecting the choice of water model, as observed for the present host-guest system despite it being nonionized, raises issues regarding the selection and adjustment of water models for use with biological macromolecules, especially as these typically possess multiple ionized groups that can interact relatively strongly with ions in solution.

The ability to computationally predict protein-small molecule binding affinities with high accuracy would accelerate drug discovery and reduce its cost by eliminating rounds of trial-and-error synthesis and experimental evaluation of candidate ligands. As academic and industrial groups work toward this capability, there is an ongoing need for datasets that can be used to rigorously test new computational methods. Although protein-ligand data are clearly important for this purpose, their size and complexity make it difficult to obtain well-converged results and to troubleshoot computational methods. Host-guest systems offer a valuable alternative class of test cases, as they exemplify noncovalent molecular recognition but are far smaller and simpler. As a consequence, host-guest systems have been part of the prior two rounds of SAMPL prediction exercises, and they also figure in the present SAMPL5 round. In addition to being blinded, and thus avoiding biases that may arise in retrospective studies, the SAMPL challenges have the merit of focusing multiple researchers on a common set of molecular systems, so that methods may be compared and ideas exchanged. The present paper provides an overview of the host-guest component of SAMPL5, which centers on three different hosts, two octa-acids and a glycoluril-based molecular clip, and two different sets of guest molecules, in aqueous solution. A range of methods were applied, including electronic structure calculations with implicit solvent models; methods that combine empirical force fields with implicit solvent models; and explicit solvent free energy simulations. The most reliable methods tend to fall in the latter class, consistent with results in prior SAMPL rounds, but the level of accuracy is still below that sought for reliable computer-aided drug design. Advances in force field accuracy, modeling of protonation equilibria, electronic structure methods, and solvent models, hold promise for future improvements.

Electronic Supplementary Material (ESM) (referred to in the article as Supporting Information) had erroneously not been published in the original publication. The missing ESM are provided in this erratum.

We describe our efforts to prepare common starting structures and models for the SAMPL5 blind prediction challenge. We generated the starting input files and single configuration potential energies for the host-guest in the SAMPL5 blind prediction challenge for the GROMACS, AMBER, LAMMPS, DESMOND and CHARMM molecular simulation programs. All conversions were fully automated from the originally prepared AMBER input files using a combination of the ParmEd and InterMol conversion programs. We find that the energy calculations for all molecular dynamics engines for this molecular set agree to better than 0.1 % relative absolute energy for all energy components, and in most cases an order of magnitude better, when reasonable choices are made for different cutoff parameters. However, there are some surprising sources of statistically significant differences. Most importantly, different choices of Coulomb's constant between programs are one of the largest sources of discrepancies in energies. We discuss the measures required to get good agreement in the energies for equivalent starting configurations between the simulation programs, and the energy differences that occur when simulations are run with program-specific default simulation parameter values. Finally, we discuss what was required to automate this conversion and comparison.

A major challenge in human genetics is to devise a systematic strategy to integrate disease-associated variants with diverse genomic and biological data sets to provide insight into disease pathogenesis and guide drug discovery for complex traits such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Here we performed a genome-wide association study meta-analysis in a total of >100,000 subjects of European and Asian ancestries (29,880 RA cases and 73,758 controls), by evaluating ∼10 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms. We discovered 42 novel RA risk loci at a genome-wide level of significance, bringing the total to 101 (refs 2 - 4). We devised an in silico pipeline using established bioinformatics methods based on functional annotation, cis-acting expression quantitative trait loci and pathway analyses--as well as novel methods based on genetic overlap with human primary immunodeficiency, haematological cancer somatic mutations and knockout mouse phenotypes--to identify 98 biological candidate genes at these 101 risk loci. We demonstrate that these genes are the targets of approved therapies for RA, and further suggest that drugs approved for other indications may be repurposed for the treatment of RA. Together, this comprehensive genetic study sheds light on fundamental genes, pathways and cell types that contribute to RA pathogenesis, and provides empirical evidence that the genetics of RA can provide important information for drug discovery.