This paper presents a novel demand response estimation framework for residential and commercial buildings using a combination of EnergyPlus and two-state models for thermostatically controlled loads. Specifically, EnergyPlus models for commercial and multi-dwelling residential units are applied to construct exhaustive datasets (i.e., with more than 300M data points) that capture the detailed load response and complex thermodynamics of several building types. Subsequently, regression models are fit to each dataset to predict DR potential based on key inputs, including hour of day, set point change and outside air temperature. For single residential units, and residential thermostatically controlled loads (i.e. water heaters and refrigerators) a two-state model from the literature is applied. The proposed framework is then validated for commercial buildings through a comparison with a dataset composed of 11 buildings during 12 demand response events. In addition, the use of the proposed simplified DR estimation framework is presented in terms of two cases (1) peak load shed prediction in an individual building and (2) aggregated DR up/down capacity from a large-scale group of different buildings.

Demand Response (DR) is an important component for the establishment of smart electricity grids. It can decrease the system peaks through load shedding or shifting and optimize the utilization of the existing grid assets, which delays the need for costly upgrades. DR can also enable the integration of intermittent and distributed energy resources (DER) into the existing electricity grid. Fast DR from aggregated flexible loads can provide ancillary services (AS) to absorb grid disruptions and may replace the expensive fast-ramping reserve generation units. This study presents a methodology for load aggregation based on the prioritization of loads according to their flexibility. Different flexible load types are categorized as Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL), Urgent Non-TCL, Non-urgent Non-TCL, and Battery-based Loads. Models based on their physical behaviour are developed and simulations performed to apply the proposed aggregation and control algorithm. Results show that the loads during peak hours can be shed off without rebound demand spikes after the DR event commonly seen in other types of DR programs. The algorithm also automatically adjusts the power demand according to the output of the distributed renewable generation, mitigating disruptions due to variations of the DER output. Additionally, the algorithm is able to adjust the load demand dynamically according to the fluctuations of electricity price.