Disturbance such as wildfire may create opportunities for plant communities to reorganize in response to climate change. The interaction between climate change and disturbance may be particularly important in forests, where many of the foundational plant species (trees) are long-lived and where poor initial tree establishment can result in conversion to shrub- or graminoid-dominated systems. The response of post-disturbance vegetation establishment to post-disturbance weather conditions, particularly to extreme weather, could therefore provide useful information about how forest communities will respond to climate change. We examined the effect of post-fire weather conditions on post-fire tree, shrub, and graminoid recruitment in fire-adapted forests in northern California, USA, by surveying regenerating vegetation in severely burned areas 4-5 yr after 14 different wildfires that burned between 2004 and 2012. This time period (2004-2016) encompassed a wide range of post-fire weather conditions, including a period of extreme drought. For the most common tree species, we observed little evidence of disturbance-mediated community reorganization or range shifts but instead either (1) low sensitivity of recruitment to post-fire weather or (2) weak but widespread decreases in recruitment under unusually dry post-fire conditions, depending on the species. The occurrence of a single strong drought year following fire was more important than a series of moderately dry years in explaining tree recruitment declines. Overall, however, post-fire tree recruitment patterns were explained more strongly by long-term climate and topography and local adult tree species abundance than by post-fire weather conditions. This observation suggests that surviving adult trees can contribute to a "biological inertia" that restricts the extent to which tree community composition will track changes in climate through post-disturbance recruitment. In contrast to our observations in trees, we observed substantial increases in shrub and graminoid establishment under post-fire drought, suggesting that shifts in dominance between functional groups may become more likely in a future with more frequent and intense drought.

As climate changes, locally adapted tree populations may become maladapted to the sites in which they presently occur. When natural adaptive processes are insufficient for populations to keep pace with changing climate, human-assisted relocation of genotypes (assisted gene flow) may be a useful tool for maintaining forest resilience. While existing empirical evidence provides insight into the potential outcomes and consequences of assisted gene flow, its applicability to large-scale plantings needs to be evaluated. We conducted a test of assisted gene flow in the context of operational postfire restoration plantings in three U.S. Department of Agriculture National Forests in California. Our experimental restoration plantings included seedling provenances representing both the local planting site and lower-elevation provenances that may be adapted to hotter and drier conditions. For the duration of the experiment, the planting sites experienced anomalously hot, dry conditions, offering a window into the potential outcomes of assisted gene flow in a future climate characterized by warmer temperatures and more frequent drought. In most cases, there was no significant difference in seedling growth or survival among provenances. However, in a few cases, lower-elevation provenances performed better than local provenances, suggesting a potential benefit of assisted gene flow as a management response to climate change. Our analyses accounted for spatial variation in shrub cover and detected a consistent and substantial negative association between shrub cover and seedling growth. In addition, our study revealed that the use of operational seed collections that are not geographically precise (and therefore also not climatically precise) can complicate selection of appropriate provenances and lead to unpredictable outcomes. Numerous other risks and uncertainties—including the fact that tree populations are often adapted to local site factors other than climate and that long-term outcomes may differ from short-term observations—complicate evaluations of the potential utility of assisted gene flow.

Plant communities in abiotically stressful, or 'harsh', habitats have been reported to be less invaded by non-native species than those in more moderate habitats. Here, we synthesize descriptive and experimental evidence for low levels of invasion in habitats characterized by a variety of environmental stressors: low nitrogen; low phosphorus; saline, sodic or alkaline soils; serpentine soils; low soil moisture; shallow/rocky soils; temporary inundation; high shade; high elevation; and high latitude. We then discuss major categories of hypotheses to explain this pattern: the propagule limitation mechanism suggests invasion of harsh sites is limited by relatively low arrival rates of propagules compared with more moderate habitats, while invasion resistance mechanisms suggest that harsh habitats are inherently less invasible due to stressful abiotic conditions and/or increased effects of biotic resistance from resident organisms. Both propagule limitation and invasion resistance may simultaneously contribute to low invadedness of harsh sites, but the management implications of these mechanisms differ. If propagule limitation is more important, managers should focus on reducing the likelihood of propagule introductions. If invasion resistance mechanisms are in play, managers should focus on restoring or maintaining harsh conditions at a site to reduce invasibility.

Large, severe fires are becoming more frequent in many forest types across the western United States and have resulted in tree mortality across tens of thousands of hectares. Conifer regeneration in these areas is limited because seeds must travel long distances to reach the interior of large burned patches and establishment is jeopardized by increasingly hot and dry conditions. To better inform postfire management in low elevation forests of California, USA, we collected 5-yr postfire recovery data from 1,234 study plots in 19 wildfires that burned from 2004-2012 and 18 yrs of seed production data from 216 seed fall traps (1999-2017). We used these data in conjunction with spatially extensive climate, topography, forest composition, and burn severity surfaces to construct taxon-specific, spatially explicit models of conifer regeneration that incorporate climate conditions and seed availability during postfire recovery windows. We found that after accounting for other predictors both postfire and historical precipitation were strong predictors of regeneration, suggesting that both direct effects of postfire moisture conditions and biological inertia from historical climate may play a role in regeneration. Alternatively, postfire regeneration may simply be driven by postfire climate and apparent relationships with historical climate could be spurious. The estimated sensitivity of regeneration to postfire seed availability was strongest in firs and all conifers combined and weaker in pines. Seed production exhibited high temporal variability with seed production varying by over two orders of magnitude among years. Our models indicate that during droughts postfire conifer regeneration declines most substantially in low-to-moderate elevation forests. These findings enhance our mechanistic understanding of forecasted and historically documented shifts in the distribution of trees.

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.