A general circulation model using a full-Galerkin method is developed for the simulation of atmospheric climate and variability. Two variants of the Galerkin method, the spectral-transform method and the finite-element method, are used in this model for the horizontal and vertical representation, respectively. The baroclinic dynamics of this model are examined by performing linear normal mode and nonlinear lifecycle calculations of baroclinic waves. The results suggest that the finite-element method resolves the vertical structure of the baroclinic normal mode better than the finite-difference method. The generation, propagation, and decay of baroclinic waves are well simulated in this model. A long-term integration was carried out with a zonally symmetric forcing applied to the GCM. The simulated climate with a flat topography and that produced in the model hemisphere with an idealized mountain are compared. The results suggest that the presence of mountain does not alter the meridional structure of the zonal mean circulation. Comparisons of these time-mean statistics to observed winter time statistics in the real atmosphere indicate that this GCM produces a reasonable general circulation of the atmosphere. © 2000 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. on behalf of IMACS.

Possible causes of the spring persistence barrier in ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies are examined using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM). Our study indicates that the persistence barrier is significantly enhanced when both Pacific and Indian Ocean couplings are included in the CGCM, compared to the simulation that includes only the Pacific Ocean coupling. ENSO's variance, phase locking to the annual cycle, and biennial variability are also increased in the Indo-Pacific Run. Further analysis reveals that the overall amplitude of ENSO is not a primary factor in determining the strength of the persistence barrier, rather, it is the amplitude of the biennial component of ENSO affecting the barrier the most. The persistence barrier is consistently strong (weak) when biennial ENSO variability is large (small). No such a clear relationship is found between the strength of the barrier and the amplitude of the low-frequency (3-5 years) component of ENSO. This modeling study demonstrates that the biennial component of ENSO is one major mechanism responsible for the spring persistence barrier and that interactions between the tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean-monsoon could enhance the biennial component of ENSO. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Possible causes of the spring persistence barrier in ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies are examined using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM). Our study indicates that the persistence barrier is significantly enhanced when both Pacific and Indian Ocean couplings are included in the CGCM, compared to the simulation that includes only the Pacific Ocean coupling. ENSO's variance, phase locking to the annual cycle, and biennial variability are also increased in the Indo-Pacific Run. Further analysis reveals that the overall amplitude of ENSO is not a primary factor in determining the strength of the persistence barrier, rather, it is the amplitude of the biennial component of ENSO affecting the barrier the most. The persistence barrier is consistently strong (weak) when biennial ENSO variability is large (small). No such a clear relationship is found between the strength of the barrier and the amplitude of the low-frequency (3–5 years) component of ENSO. This modeling study demonstrates that the biennial component of ENSO is one major mechanism responsible for the spring persistence barrier and that interactions between the tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean-monsoon could enhance the biennial component of ENSO.

In this study, we perform experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to examine ENSO's influence on the interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) variability of the tropical Indian Ocean. The control experiment includes both the Indian and Pacific Oceans in the ocean model component of the CGCM (the Indo-Pacific Run). The anomaly experiment excludes ENSO's influence by including only the Indian Ocean while prescribing monthly-varying climatological SSTs for the Pacific Ocean (the Indian-Ocean Run). In the Indo-Pacific Run, an oscillatory mode of the Indian Ocean SST variability is identified by a multi-channel singular spectral analysis (MSSA). The oscillatory mode comprises two patterns that can be identified with the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) and a basin-wide warming/cooling mode respectively. In the model, the IOZM peaks about 3-5 months after ENSO reaches its maximum intensity. The basin mode peaks 8 months after the IOZM. The timing and associated SST patterns suggests that the IOZM is related to ENSO, and the basin-wide warming/ cooling develops as a result of the decay of the IOZM spreading SST anomalies from western Indian Ocean to the eastern Indian Ocean. In contrast, in the Indian-Ocean Run, no oscillatory modes can be identified by the MSSA, even though the Indian Ocean SST variability is characterized by east-west SST contrast patterns similar to the IOZM. In both control and anomaly runs, IOZM-like SST variability appears to be associated with forcings from fluctuations of the Indian monsoon. Our modeling results suggest that the oscillatory feature of the IOZM is primarily forced by ENSO. © Springer-Verlag 2004.

The tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) is conventionally considered to involve transitions between the Indian and Australian summer monsoons and the interactions between these two monsoons and the underlying Indo-Pacific Oceans. Here it is shown that, since the early 1990s, the TBO has evolved to mainly involve the transitions between the western North Pacific (WNP) and Australian monsoons. In this framework, the WNP monsoon replaces the Indian monsoon as the active Northern Hemisphere TBO monsoon center during recent decades. This change is found to be caused by stronger Pacific-Atlantic coupling and an increased influence of the tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Indian and WNP monsoons. The increased Atlantic Ocean influence damps the Pacific Ocean influence on the Indian summer monsoon (leading to a decrease in its variability) but amplifies the Pacific Ocean influence on the WNP summer monsoon (leading to an increase in its variability). These results suggest that the Pacific-Atlantic interactions have become more important to the TBO dynamics during recent decades.

This study analyzes representative concentration pathway 4.5 projections by 18 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to show that surface warming patterns in the equatorial Pacific during the twenty-first century (centennial warming) are influenced by the relative strengths of the Walker and Hadley circulations. The stronger the Hadley (Walker) circulation is, the greater the surface warming in the central Pacific (CP) [eastern Pacific (EP)]. The EP warming is associated with the Bjerknes feedback, while the CP warming is associated with the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature feedback. This atmospheric circulation influence on the centennial warming is similar to that found for the EP and CP El Niño. This suggests a methodology to constrain the estimate of the projected surface warming patterns in the equatorial Pacific using recent El Niño activity. The constraint indicates that the "most likely"centennial warming patterns have a maximum in the EP and are 39% weaker than the warming projected by the 18-model mean. The most-likely projection also shows alternating stronger and weaker warming in the subtropical North Pacific, which is not predicted by the 18-model mean projection. Nevertheless, the two projections agree on the minimum warming in the southeastern subtropical Pacific. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

In what is arguably one of the most dramatic phenomena possibly associated with climate change or natural climate variability, the location of El Niño has shifted more to the central Pacific in recent decades. In this study, we use statistical analyses, numerical model experiments and case studies to show that the Central-Pacific El Niño enhances the drying effect, but weakens the wetting effect, typically produced by traditional Eastern-Pacific El Niño events on the US winter precipitation. As a result, the emerging Central-Pacific El Niño produces an overall drying effect on the US winter, particularly over the Ohio-Mississippi Valley, Pacific Northwest and Southeast. The enhanced drying effect is related to a more southward displacement of tropospheric jet streams that control the movements of winter storms. The results of this study imply that the emergence of the Central-Pacific El Niño in recent decades may be one factor contributing to the recent prevalence of extended droughts in the US. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

The annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern Pacific warm pool and its relation to Central America gap winds are examined in this study. Locally enhanced annual harmonics of SST are found underneath the regions where the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap winds blow. The SSTs underneath the Tehuantepec gap wind undergo larger annual variations than those underneath the Papagayo gap wind. This suggests that the Tehuantepec gap wind has a stronger influence on the annual cycle of SST than the Papagayo gap wind. A series of ocean model experiments are performed to demonstrate the enhancement effect of the gap winds. Further heat budget analyses of the experiments show that the gap winds increase the amplitude of the SST annual cycle primarily by enhancing the vertical entrainment process in the ocean. The thermal forcing effect of the gap winds is less important in modulating the SST annual cycle.

The tropical Pacific has begun to experience a new type of El Niño, which has occurred particularly frequently during the last decade, referred to as the central Pacific (CP) El Niño. Various coupled models with different degrees of complexity have been used to make real-time El Niño predictions, but high uncertainty still exists in their forecasts. It remains unknown as to how much of this uncertainty is specifically related to the new CP-type El Niño and how much is common to both this type and the conventional Eastern Pacific (EP)-type El Niño. In this study, the deterministic performance of an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ensemble prediction system is examined for the two types of El Niño. Ensemble hindcasts are run for the nine EP El Niño events and twelve CP El Niño events that have occurred since 1950. The results show that (1) the skill scores for the EP events are significantly better than those for the CP events, at all lead times; (2) the systematic forecast biases come mostly from the prediction of the CP events; and (3) the systematic error is characterized by an overly warm eastern Pacific during the spring season, indicating a stronger spring prediction barrier for the CP El Niño. Further improvements to coupled atmosphere–ocean models in terms of CP El Niño prediction should be recognized as a key and high-priority task for the climate prediction community.

Analysis of the first 26 months of data from the Aquarius satellite confirms the existence of a sharp sea surface salinity (SSS) front along the equator in the western equatorial Pacific. Following several earlier studies, we use the longitudinal location of the 34.8-psu isohaline as an index, termed Niño-S34.8, to measure the zonal displacement of the SSS front and consequently the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool. The on-going collection of the Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (ARGO) program data shows high correlations between Niño-S34.8 and the existing indices of El Niño, suggesting its potential important role in ENSO evolution. Further analysis of the ARGO data reveals that SSS variability in the southeastern tropical Pacific is crucial to identify the type of El Niño. A new SSS index, termed the southeastern Pacific SSS index (SEPSI), is defined based on the SSS variability in the region (0°-10°S, 150°-90°W). The SEPSI is highly correlated with the El Niño Modoki index, as well as the Trans-Niño index, introduced by previous studies. It has large positive anomalies during central Pacific El Niño or El Niño Modoki events, as a result of enhanced zonal sea surface temperature gradients between the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and can be used to characterize the type of El Niño. The processes that possibly control these SSS indices are also discussed. © 2014 The Oceanographic Society of Japan and Springer Japan.