We analyzed the dynamics of cumulative severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Beijing using the Richards model. The predicted total SARS incidence was close to the actual number of cases; the predicted cessation date was close to the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval.

The causes of the recent re-emergence of malaria in the East African highlands probably involve a complex interplay among multiple factors, including climate, land use, topography, inadequate use of antimalarial drugs and drug resistance, socioeconomic status, health policy and public health control measures. It is important to determine the relative contribution of these factors. In our study, we statistically attributed the effects of autocorrelation, seasonality and climate variability to the temporal variation in the number of malaria patients in several highland sites in East Africa. We found that in three out of seven sites, climate variability contributed more variance to malaria patient numbers than did autocorrelation and seasonality. In all seven study sites, we found highly significant nonlinear, synergistic effects of the interaction between rainfall and temperature on malaria patient time series.

BACKGROUND: Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive mosquito species and a major vector of numerous viral pathogens. Many recent dengue fever outbreaks in China have been caused solely by the vector. Mapping of the potential distribution ranges of Ae. albopictus is crucial for epidemic preparedness and the monitoring of vector populations for disease control. Climate is a key factor influencing the distribution of the species. Despite field studies indicating seasonal population variations, very little modeling work has been done to analyze how environmental conditions influence the seasonality of Ae. albopictus. The aim of the present study was to develop a model based on available observations, climatic and environmental data, and machine learning methods for the prediction of the potential seasonal ranges of Ae. albopictus in China. METHODS: We collected comprehensive up-to-date surveillance data in China, particularly records from the northern distribution margin of Ae. albopictus. All records were assigned long-term (1970-2000) climatic data averages based on the WorldClim 2.0 data set. Machine learning regression tree models were developed using a 10-fold cross-validation method to predict the potential seasonal (or monthly) distribution ranges of Ae. albopictus in China at high resolution based on environmental conditions. The models were assessed based on sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy, using area under curve (AUC). WorldClim 2.0 and climatic and environmental data were used to produce environmental conduciveness (probability) prediction surfaces. Predicted probabilities were generated based on the averages of the 10 models. RESULTS: During 1998-2017, Ae. albopictus was observed at 200 out of the 242 localities surveyed. In addition, at least 15 new Ae. albopictus occurrence sites lay outside the potential ranges that have been predicted using models previously. The average accuracy was 98.4% (97.1-99.5%), and the average AUC was 99.1% (95.6-99.9%). The predicted Ae. albopictus distribution in winter (December-February) was limited to a small subtropical-tropical area of China, and Ae. albopictus was predicted to occur in northern China only during the short summer season (usually June-September). The predicted distribution areas in summer could reach northeastern China bordering Russia and the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in southwestern China. Ae. albopictus could remain active in expansive areas from central to southern China in October and November. CONCLUSIONS: Climate and environmental conditions are key factors influencing the seasonal distribution of Ae. albopictus in China. The areas predicted to potentially host Ae. albopictus seasonally in the present study could reach northeastern China and the eastern slope of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our results present new evidence and suggest the expansion of systematic vector population monitoring activities and regular re-assessment of epidemic risk potential.

Background: Biological control methods are once again being given much research focus for malaria vector control. This is largely due to the emerging threat of strong resistance to pesticides. Larvivorous fish have been used for over 100 years in mosquito control and many species have proved effective. In the western Kenyan highlands the larvivorous fish Oreochromis niloticus L. ( Perciformes: Cichlidae) ( formerly Tilapia nilotica) is commonly farmed and eaten but has not been previously tested in the field for malaria mosquito control. Methods: This fish was introduced into abandoned fishponds at an altitude of 1,880 m and the effect measured over six months on the numbers of mosquito immatures. For comparison an untreated control pond was used. During this time, all ponds were regularly cleared of emergent vegetation and fish re-stocking was not needed. Significant autocorrelation was removed from the time series data, and t-tests were used to investigate within a pond and within a mosquito type any differences before and after the introduction of O. niloticus. Mulla's formula was also used on the raw data to calculate the percentage reduction of the mosquito larvae. Results: After O. niloticus introduction, mosquito densities immediately dropped in the treated ponds but increased in the control pond. This increase was apparently due to climatic factors. Mulla's formula was applied which corrects for that natural tendency to increase. The results showed that after 15 weeks the fish caused a more than 94% reduction in both Anopheles gambiae s. l. and Anopheles funestus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the treated ponds, and more than 75% reduction in culicine mosquitoes. There was a highly significantly reduction in A. gambiae s. l. numbers when compared to pre-treatment levels. Conclusion: This study reports the first field trial data on O. niloticus for malaria mosquito control and shows that this species, already a popular food fish in western Kenya, is an apparently sustainable mosquito control tool which also offers a source of protein and income to people in rural areas. There should be no problem with acceptance of this malaria control method since the local communities already farm this fish species.

The reasons for the resurgence of malaria in the African highlands have been subject of debate. Because vector abundance is important for malaria transmission, gaining a better understanding of vector biology is a key to understanding the mechanisms of highland malaria. We studied vector productivity in relation to the highland environment and compared productivity between lowland and highland sites. We found lower vector productivity in the highland and in wetlands where the temperature was lower. Immature stage development time was significantly longer in the highland site. Development time was significantly shorter in aquatic habitats in cultivated areas than in wetlands, and survival rate was significantly higher in cultivated areas. Fecundity was significantly lower in the highland site. These findings suggest that changes in local temperature and land use contribute to an increase of malaria vectors in the highland.

Increasing levels of global trade and intercontinental travel have been cited as the major causes of biological invasion. However, indirect factors such as economic development that affect the intensity of invasion have not been quantitatively explored. Herein, using principal factor analysis, we investigated the relationship between biological invasion and economic development together with climatic information for China from the 1970s to present. We demonstrate that the increase in biological invasion is coincident with the rapid economic development that has occurred in China over the past three decades. The results indicate that the geographic prevalence of invasive species varies substantially on the provincial scale, but can be surprisingly well predicted using the combination of economic development (R² = 0.378) and climatic factors (R² = 0.347). Economic factors are proven to be at least equal to if not more determinant of the occurrence of invasive species than climatic factors. International travel and trade are shown to have played a less significant role in accounting for the intensity of biological invasion in China. Our results demonstrate that more attention should be paid to economic factors to improve the understanding, prediction and management of biological invasions.

Background: Interest in indoor residual spray (IRS) has been rekindled in recent years, as it is increasingly considered to be a key component of integrated malaria management. Regular spraying of each human dwelling becomes less and less practical as the control area increases. Where malaria transmission is concentrated around focal points, however, targeted IRS may pose a feasible alternative to mass spraying. Here, the impact of targeted IRS was assessed in the highlands of western Kenya. Methods: Indoor residual spray using lambda-cyhalothrin insecticide was carried out during the last week of April 2005 in 1,100 targeted houses, located in the valley bottom areas of Iguhu village, Kakamega district of western Kenya. Although the uphill areas are more densely populated, valleys are believed to be malaria transmission hotspots. The aim of the study was to measurably reduce the vector density and malaria transmission in uphill areas by focusing control on these hotspots. A cohort of 1,058 children from 1-5 yrs of age was randomly selected from a 4 km by 6 km study area for the baseline malaria prevalence survey after pre-clearing malaria infections during the third week of April 2005, and the prevalence of Plasmodium infections was tested bi-weekly. Seasonal changes in mosquito densities 12 months before the IRS and 12 months after the IRS was monitored quarterly based on 300 randomly selected houses. Monthly parasitological surveys were also carried out in the same area with 129-661 randomly selected school children of age 6-13 yrs. Results: The result of monthly parasitological surveys indicated that malaria prevalence in school children was reduced by 64.4% in the intervention valley area and by 46.3% in the intervention uphill area after 12 months of follow-ups in contrast to nonintervention areas (valley or uphill). The cohort study showed an average of 4.5% fewer new infections biweekly in the intervention valley compare to nonintervention valley and the relative reduction in incidence rate by week 14 was 65.4%. The relative reduction in incidence rate in intervention uphill by week 14 was 46.4%. Anopheles gambiae densities were reduced by 96.8% and 51.6% in the intervention valley and intervention uphill, respectively, and Anopheles funestus densities were reduced by 85.3% and 69.2% in the intervention valley and intervention uphill, respectively. Conclusion: Vector control had significant indirect impact on the densely populated uphill areas when IRS was targeted to the high-risk valleys. Additionally, the wide-reaching benefits of IRS in reducing vector prevalence and disease incidence was observed for at least six months following spraying, suggesting targeted IRS as an effective tool in malaria control.

Background: Malaria in the western Kenya highlands is characterized by unstable and high transmission variability which results in epidemics during periods of suitable climatic conditions. The sensitivity of a site to malaria epidemics depends on the level of immunity of the human population. This study examined how terrain in the highlands affects exposure and sensitivity of a site to malaria. Methods: The study was conducted in five sites in the western Kenya highlands, two U-shaped valleys (Iguhu, Emutete), two V-shaped valleys (Marani, Fort-Ternan) and one plateau (Shikondi) for 16 months among 6-15 years old children. Exposure to malaria was tested using circum-sporozoite protein (CSP) and merozoite surface protein (MSP) immunochromatographic antibody tests; malaria infections were tested by microscopic examination of thick and thin smears, the children's homes were georeferenced using a global positioning system. Paired t-test was used to compare the mean prevalence rates of the sites, K-function was use to determine if the clustering of malaria infections was significant. Results and Discussion: The mean antibody prevalence was 22.6% in Iguhu, 24% in Emutete, 11.5% in Shikondi, 8.3% in Fort-Ternan and 9.3% in Marani. The mean malaria infection prevalence was 23.3% in Iguhu, 21.9% in Emutete, 4.7% in Shikondi, 2.9% in Fort-Ternan and 2.4% in Marani. There was a significant difference in the antibodies and malaria infection prevalence between the two valley systems, and between the two valley systems and the plateau (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in the antibodies and malaria infection prevalence in the two U-shaped valleys (Iguhu and Emutete) and in the V-shaped valleys (Marani and Fort Ternan) (P > 0.05). There was 8.5-fold and a 2-fold greater parasite and antibody prevalence respectively, in the U-shaped compared to the V-shaped valleys. The plateau antibody and parasite prevalence was similar to that of the V-shaped valleys. There was clustering of malaria antibodies and infections around flat areas in the U-shaped valleys, the infections were randomly distributed in the V-shaped valleys and less clustered at the plateau. Conclusion: This study showed that the V-shaped ecosystems have very low malaria prevalence and few individuals with an immune response to two major malaria antigens and they can be considered as epidemic hotspots. These populations are at higher risk of severe forms of malaria during hyper-transmission seasons. The plateau ecosystem has a similar infection and immune response to the V-shaped ecosystems. The U-shaped ecosystems are transmission hotspots.

Abstract Background Malaria in the western Kenya highlands is characterized by unstable and high transmission variability which results in epidemics during periods of suitable climatic conditions. The sensitivity of a site to malaria epidemics depends on the level of immunity of the human population. This study examined how terrain in the highlands affects exposure and sensitivity of a site to malaria. Methods The study was conducted in five sites in the western Kenya highlands, two U-shaped valleys (Iguhu, Emutete), two V-shaped valleys (Marani, Fort-Ternan) and one plateau (Shikondi) for 16 months among 6-15 years old children. Exposure to malaria was tested using circum-sporozoite protein (CSP) and merozoite surface protein (MSP) immunochromatographic antibody tests; malaria infections were tested by microscopic examination of thick and thin smears, the children's homes were georeferenced using a global positioning system. Paired t-test was used to compare the mean prevalence rates of the sites, K-function was use to determine if the clustering of malaria infections was significant. Results and Discussion The mean antibody prevalence was 22.6% in Iguhu, 24% in Emutete, 11.5% in Shikondi, 8.3% in Fort-Ternan and 9.3% in Marani. The mean malaria infection prevalence was 23.3% in Iguhu, 21.9% in Emutete, 4.7% in Shikondi, 2.9% in Fort-Ternan and 2.4% in Marani. There was a significant difference in the antibodies and malaria infection prevalence between the two valley systems, and between the two valley systems and the plateau (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in the antibodies and malaria infection prevalence in the two U-shaped valleys (Iguhu and Emutete) and in the V-shaped valleys (Marani and Fort Ternan) (P > 0.05). There was 8.5- fold and a 2-fold greater parasite and antibody prevalence respectively, in the U-shaped compared to the V-shaped valleys. The plateau antibody and parasite prevalence was similar to that of the V-shaped valleys. There was clustering of malaria antibodies and infections around flat areas in the U-shaped valleys, the infections were randomly distributed in the V-shaped valleys and less clustered at the plateau. Conclusion This study showed that the V-shaped ecosystems have very low malaria prevalence and few individuals with an immune response to two major malaria antigens and they can be considered as epidemic hotspots. These populations are at higher risk of severe forms of malaria during hyper-transmission seasons. The plateau ecosystem has a similar infection and immune response to the V-shaped ecosystems. The U-shaped ecosystems are transmission hotspots.

Abstract Background Localized mosquito larval habitat management and the use of larvicides have been proposed as important control tools in integrated malaria vector management programs. In order to optimize the utility of these tools, detailed knowledge of the spatial distribution patterns of mosquito larval habitats is crucial. However, the spatial and temporal changes of habitat distribution patterns under different climatic conditions are rarely quantified and their implications to larval control are unknown. Results Using larval habitat data collected in western Kenya highlands during both dry and rainy seasons of 2003-2005, this study analyzed the seasonal and inter-annual changes in the spatial patterns in mosquito larval habitat distributions. We found that the spatial patterns of larval habitats had significant temporal variability both seasonally and inter-annually. Conclusions The pattern of larval habitats is extremely important to the epidemiology of malaria because it results in spatial heterogeneity in the adult mosquito population and, subsequently, the spatial distribution of clinical malaria cases. Results from this study suggest that larval habitat management activities need to consider the dynamic nature of malaria vector habitats.