In light of a warming climate, the complexity of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) makes its prediction a challenge. In addition to various flavors of ENSO, oceanic warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific is not always accompanied by corresponding atmospheric anomalies; that is, the atmosphere and ocean remain uncoupled. Such uncoupled warm events as happened in 1979, 2004, 2014, and 2018 are rare and represent an unusual form of ENSO diversity. A weaker zonal sea surface temperature anomaly gradient across the tropical Pacific compared to a conventional El Niño may partially account for the decoupling. Also, the uncoupled warm events typically start late in the calendar year, which raises the possible influence of seasonality in background conditions for the lack of coupling. Without coupling, the impact of the warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific on extratropical climate is different from that of its coupled counterpart.

Following the interdecadal shift of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties that occurred in 1976/77, another regime shift happened in 1999/2000 that featured a decrease of variability and an increase in ENSO frequency. Specifically, the frequency spectrum of Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature shifted from dominant variations at quasi-quadrennial (∼4 yr) periods during 1979-99 to weaker fluctuations at quasi-biennial (∼2 yr) periods during 2000-18. Also, the spectrum of warm water volume (WWV)index had almost no peak in 2000-18, implying a nearly white noise process. The regime shift was associated with an enhanced zonal gradient of the mean state, awestward shift in the atmosphere-ocean coupling in the tropical Pacific, and an increase in the static stability of the troposphere. This shift had several important implications. The whitening of the subsurface ocean temperature led to a breakdown of the relationship between WWV and ENSO, reducing the efficacy of WWV as a key predictor for ENSO and thus leading to a decrease in ENSO prediction skill. Another consequence of the higher ENSO frequency after 1999/2000 was that the forecasted peak of sea surface temperature anomaly often lagged that observed by several months, and the lag increased with the lead time. The ENSO regime shift may have altered ENSO influences on extratropical climate. Thus, the regime shift of ENSO in 1999/2000 as well as the model default may account for the higher false alarm and lower skill in predicting ENSO since 1999/2000.

Background

GD1-DS3 is an integrated assessment of type 1 Gaucher disease (GD1) burden based on bone, hematologic and visceral domains. We investigated this disease severity scoring system (DS3) methodology for initial assessment, long-term follow-up and evaluation of treatment responses.

Methods

We enrolled 133 treated adult GD1 patients. Baseline DS3 scores were calculated near the initial treatment date and patients stratified by severity as marked (DS3 6.00-19.00), moderate (DS3 3.00-5.99), mild (DS3 < 3.00). Follow-up scores were calculated annually. Minimal clinically important improvement (MCII), is defined as ΔDS3 of -3.1.

Results

Patient characteristics

N370S was the most common allele (118 patients had at least one), 52 were N370S/N370S (48/52 were Ashkenazi Jews), N370S/L444P was the most common genotype among non-Jews. Median age of treatment: 45 years; median follow-up: 14 years. Baseline DS3 scores: Patients with marked disease (N = 58; median 7.84) were least likely to be N370S homozygous (19 %) and most likely to have had splenectomy (53 %), early age at diagnosis (median 18 years) and major pre-treatment bone pathology (76 %). Among patients with moderate disease (N = 53; median 4.33), 49 % were N370S/N370S, 15.1 % had splenectomy and 17 % had major bone disease. Median age at diagnosis: 32 years. No patient with mild disease (N = 22; median 2.4) had splenectomy or major skeletal disease. Median age at diagnosis: 40 years. 68 % were N370S homozygous. Response to treatment: Health-state transitions occurred primarily during the early treatment years. At Year 5, among 48 evaluable patients with marked baseline disease, eight were unchanged in severity status whereas 40 had MCII of varying degrees with 11 scored as mild. Among 42 evaluable moderate patients, none worsened, 16 remained moderate and 26 improved to mild. Among 16 evaluable mild patients, 14 remained so and 2 had DS3 scores in the low moderate range.

Conclusions

DS3 is effective for assessing disease burden in GD1 and for monitoring response. ERT was associated with MCII in DS3 scores in patients with high severity. Nevertheless, despite better DS3 scores with treatment, GD1 patients especially those with splenectomy and pre-treatment bone pathology, continued to have bone complications.

Background

GD1-DS3 is an integrated assessment of type 1 Gaucher disease (GD1) burden based on bone, hematologic and visceral domains. We investigated this disease severity scoring system (DS3) methodology for initial assessment, long-term follow-up and evaluation of treatment responses.

Methods

We enrolled 133 treated adult GD1 patients. Baseline DS3 scores were calculated near the initial treatment date and patients stratified by severity as marked (DS3 6.00-19.00), moderate (DS3 3.00-5.99), mild (DS3 < 3.00). Follow-up scores were calculated annually. Minimal clinically important improvement (MCII), is defined as ΔDS3 of -3.1.

Results

Patient characteristics

N370S was the most common allele (118 patients had at least one), 52 were N370S/N370S (48/52 were Ashkenazi Jews), N370S/L444P was the most common genotype among non-Jews. Median age of treatment: 45 years; median follow-up: 14 years. Baseline DS3 scores: Patients with marked disease (N = 58; median 7.84) were least likely to be N370S homozygous (19 %) and most likely to have had splenectomy (53 %), early age at diagnosis (median 18 years) and major pre-treatment bone pathology (76 %). Among patients with moderate disease (N = 53; median 4.33), 49 % were N370S/N370S, 15.1 % had splenectomy and 17 % had major bone disease. Median age at diagnosis: 32 years. No patient with mild disease (N = 22; median 2.4) had splenectomy or major skeletal disease. Median age at diagnosis: 40 years. 68 % were N370S homozygous. Response to treatment: Health-state transitions occurred primarily during the early treatment years. At Year 5, among 48 evaluable patients with marked baseline disease, eight were unchanged in severity status whereas 40 had MCII of varying degrees with 11 scored as mild. Among 42 evaluable moderate patients, none worsened, 16 remained moderate and 26 improved to mild. Among 16 evaluable mild patients, 14 remained so and 2 had DS3 scores in the low moderate range.

Conclusions

DS3 is effective for assessing disease burden in GD1 and for monitoring response. ERT was associated with MCII in DS3 scores in patients with high severity. Nevertheless, despite better DS3 scores with treatment, GD1 patients especially those with splenectomy and pre-treatment bone pathology, continued to have bone complications.

Background

Accumulating evidences have suggested that percutaneous cryoablation could be a valuable alternative ablation therapy for HCC but there has been no large cohort-based analysis on its long-term outcomes.

Methods

A series of 866 patients with Child-Pugh class A-B cirrhosis and HCC within Milan criteria who underwent percutaneous cryoablation was long-term followed. The safety, efficacy, 5-year survival, and prognostic factors of percutaneous cryoablation in the treatment of HCC were analyzed.

Results

A total of 1197 HCC lesions were ablated with 1401 cryoablation sessions. Complete response (CR) was achieved in 1163 (97.2%) lesions and 832 (96.1%) patients with 34 (2.8%) major complications, but no treatment-related mortality. After a median of 30.9 months follow-up, 502 (60.3%) patients who achieved CR developed different types of recurrence. The cumulative local tumor recurrence rate was 24.2% at 5-years. Multiple tumor lesions, tumor size > 3 cm, and repeated ablation of same lesion were independent risk factors associated with local recurrence. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rates were 59.5%. Age < 36 years, HCC family history, baseline hepatitis B virus DNA >106 copies/ml, and three HCC lesions were independently and significantly negative predictors to the post-cryoablation OS.

Conclusions

Percutaneous cryoablation is an effective therapy for patients with HCC within Milan criteria, with comparable efficacy, safety and long-term survival to the reported outcomes of radiofrequency ablation.

Multi-year El Niño events induce severe and persistent floods and droughts worldwide, with significant socioeconomic impacts, but the causes of their long-lasting behaviors are still not fully understood. Here we present a two-way feedback mechanism between the tropics and extratropics to argue that extratropical atmospheric variability associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is a key source of multi-year El Niño events. The NPO during boreal winter can trigger a Central Pacific El Niño during the subsequent winter, which excites atmospheric teleconnections to the extratropics that re-energize the NPO variability, then re-triggers another El Niño event in the following winter, finally resulting in persistent El Niño-like states. Model experiments, with the NPO forcing assimilated to constrain atmospheric circulation, reproduce the observed connection between NPO forcing and the occurrence of multi-year El Niño events. Future projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 models demonstrate that with enhanced NPO variability under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent multi-year El Niño events should be expected. We conclude that properly accounting for the effects of the NPO on the evolution of El Niño events may improve multi-year El Niño prediction and projection.

Abstract Background Cryoablation is one of the local therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its safety and effect has not been studied in patients with Child class A or B and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage C HCC. Metastasis-associated in colon cancer-1 (MACC1) overexpression has been associated with poor prognosis of HCC, but its predictive value to post-cryoablation outcomes remains unknown in patients with BCLC stage C HCC. Methods This study assessed the safety and outcomes of cryoablation measured by time to progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS), and predictive value of MACC1 mRNA and protein overexpression in tumorous tissue to post-cryoablation outcomes in 120 advanced HCC patients with child-pugh class A or B by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and immunohistochemical staining. The potenial correlation of MACC1 and c-Met expression to tumor cell proliferation and apoptosis was also analyzed. Results The cryoablation in patients with advanced unresectable HCC resulted in a median TTP and OS of 5.5 (4.2- 6.7) months and 10.5 (9.0-12.0) months, respectively and no significant complications, comparable to the historical report for RFA therapy. The MACC1 mRNA and nuclear protein expression was significantly increased in tumorous tissues in these patients than that in normal liver tissue controls. Higher expression of MACC1 mRNA and nuclear protein in tumorous tissues in these patients was associated with shorter post cryoablation median TTP and OS than that with lower MACC1 expression. Conclusions Cryoablation is a safe and effective therapeutic option for patients with advanced HCC and Child-pugh class A or B cirrhosis; and a higher intratumoral expression of MACC1 or nuclear translocation predicts poor outcomes of cryotherapy in these patients.

Fungal plant pathogens remain a serious threat to the sustainable agriculture and forestry, despite the extensive efforts undertaken to control their spread. White root rot disease is threatening rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis) plantations throughout South and Southeast Asia and Western Africa, causing tree mortality and severe yield losses. Here, we report the complete genome sequence of the basidiomycete fungus Rigidoporus microporus, a causative agent of the disease. Our phylogenetic analysis confirmed the position of R. microporus among the members of Hymenochaetales, an understudied group of basidiomycetes. Our analysis further identified pathogen's genes with a predicted role in the decay of plant cell wall polymers, in the utilization of latex components and in interspecific interactions between the pathogen and other fungi. We also detected putative horizontal gene transfer events in the genome of R. microporus. The reported first genome sequence of a tropical rubber tree pathogen R. microporus should contribute to the better understanding of how the fungus is able to facilitate wood decay and nutrient cycling as well as tolerate latex and utilize resinous extractives.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

The G4C2-repeat expansion in C9orf72 is the most common known cause of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and frontotemporal dementia. The high phenotypic heterogeneity of C9orf72 patients includes a wide range in age of onset, modifiers of which are largely unknown. Age of onset could be influenced by environmental and genetic factors both of which may trigger DNA methylation changes at CpG sites. We tested the hypothesis that age of onset in C9orf72 patients is associated with some common single nucleotide polymorphisms causing a gain or loss of CpG sites and thus resulting in DNA methylation alterations. Combined analyses of epigenetic and genetic data have the advantage of detecting functional variants with reduced likelihood of false negative results due to excessive correction for multiple testing in genome-wide association studies. First, we estimated the association between age of onset in C9orf72 patients (n = 46) and the DNA methylation levels at all 7603 CpG sites available on the 450 k BeadChip that are mapped to common single nucleotide polymorphisms. This was followed by a genetic association study of the discovery (n = 144) and replication (n = 187) C9orf72 cohorts. We found that age of onset was reproducibly associated with polymorphisms within a 124.7 kb linkage disequilibrium block tagged by top-significant variation, rs9357140, and containing two overlapping genes (LOC101929163 and C6orf10). A meta-analysis of all 331 C9orf72 carriers revealed that every A-allele of rs9357140 reduced hazard by 30% (P = 0.0002); and the median age of onset in AA-carriers was 6 years later than GG-carriers. In addition, we investigated a cohort of C9orf72 negative patients (n = 2634) affected by frontotemporal dementia and/or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; and also found that the AA-genotype of rs9357140 was associated with a later age of onset (adjusted P = 0.007 for recessive model). Phenotype analyses detected significant association only in the largest subgroup of patients with frontotemporal dementia (n = 2142, adjusted P = 0.01 for recessive model). Gene expression studies of frontal cortex tissues from 25 autopsy cases affected by amyotrophic lateral sclerosis revealed that the G-allele of rs9357140 is associated with increased brain expression of LOC101929163 (a non-coding RNA) and HLA-DRB1 (involved in initiating immune responses), while the A-allele is associated with their reduced expression. Our findings suggest that carriers of the rs9357140 GG-genotype (linked to an earlier age of onset) might be more prone to be in a pro-inflammatory state (e.g. by microglia) than AA-carriers. Further, investigating the functional links within the C6orf10/LOC101929163/HLA-DRB1 pathway will be critical to better define age-dependent pathogenesis of frontotemporal dementia and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.