The post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) length of stay is an important perioperative efficiency metric. The aim of this study was to develop machine learning models to predict ambulatory surgery patients at risk for prolonged PACU length of stay - using only pre-operatively identified factors - and then to simulate the effectiveness in reducing the need for after-hours PACU staffing. Several machine learning classifier models were built to predict prolonged PACU length of stay (defined as PACU stay ≥ 3 hours) on a training set. A case resequencing exercise was then performed on the test set, in which historic cases were re-sequenced based on the predicted risk for prolonged PACU length of stay. The frequency of patients remaining in the PACU after-hours (≥ 7:00 pm) were compared between the simulated operating days versus actual operating room days. There were 10,928 ambulatory surgical patients included in the analysis, of which 580 (5.31%) had a PACU length of stay ≥ 3 hours. XGBoost with SMOTE performed the best (AUC = 0.712). The case resequencing exercise utilizing the XGBoost model resulted in an over three-fold improvement in the number of days in which patients would be in the PACU past 7pm as compared with historic performance (41% versus 12%, P<0.0001). Predictive models using preoperative patient characteristics may allow for optimized case sequencing, which may mitigate the effects of prolonged PACU lengths of stay on after-hours staffing utilization.

Background

Expansion of clinical guidance tools is crucial to identify patients at risk of requiring an opioid refill after outpatient surgery.

Objective

The objective of this study was to develop machine learning algorithms incorporating pain and opioid features to predict the need for outpatient opioid refills following ambulatory surgery.

Methods

Neural networks, regression, random forest, and a support vector machine were used to evaluate the data set. For each model, oversampling and undersampling techniques were implemented to balance the data set. Hyperparameter tuning based on k-fold cross-validation was performed, and feature importance was ranked based on a Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) explainer model. To assess performance, we calculated the average area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), F1-score, sensitivity, and specificity for each model.

Results

There were 1333 patients, of whom 144 (10.8%) refilled their opioid prescription within 2 weeks after outpatient surgery. The average AUC calculated from k-fold cross-validation was 0.71 for the neural network model. When the model was validated on the test set, the AUC was 0.75. The features with the highest impact on model output were performance of a regional nerve block, postanesthesia care unit maximum pain score, postanesthesia care unit median pain score, active smoking history, and total perioperative opioid consumption.

Conclusions

Applying machine learning algorithms allows providers to better predict outcomes that require specialized health care resources such as transitional pain clinics. This model can aid as a clinical decision support for early identification of at-risk patients who may benefit from transitional pain clinic care perioperatively in ambulatory surgery.