The need for transitioning towards low-carbon energy systems, and the recent boom in available data, allows for a constant re-evaluation of global electricity sector decarbonization progress, and its underlying theoretical assumptions. Arguably, the existing decarbonization literature and institutional support frameworks focus on top-down supply side mechanisms, where policies, goals, access to financing, and technology innovation are suggested as the main drivers. Here, we synthesize eleven global datasets that range from electricity decarbonization progress, to quality of governance, to international fossil fuel subsidies, and environmental policies, amongst several others, and use methods from data mining to explore the factors that may be fostering or hindering decarbonization progress. This exercise allows us to present numerous hypotheses worth exploring in future research. Some of these hypotheses suggest that policies might be ineffective when misaligned with country specific motivators and inherent characteristics, that even in the absence of policy there are particular inherent characteristics that foster decarbonization progress (e.g., relatively high local energy prices, foreign energy import dependency and the absence of a large extractive resource base), and that the interaction of country-specific enabling environments, inherent characteristics, and motivations is what determines decarbonization progress, rather than stand-alone support mechanisms. We present the hypothesis that existing support mechanisms for decarbonization may be relying too much on blanket strategies (e.g., policies, targets), and that there is a need for support mechanisms that encompass a wider diversity of country-specific underlying conditions. All code and data in this analysis is available upon request.

Mexico's recent energy reform (2013) has provided the foundations for increased private participation in attempts to offset or reverse the country's continued decline in fossil fuel production. This country is currently on path to becoming a net energy importer by 2020. Conversely, in 2015, and for the first time in over 20 years, the United States (US) became a net oil exporter to Mexico. One of the strategies being pursued by Mexico to prevent an impending supply–demand energy imbalance is the development of shale resources using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques. Hence, an evaluation of the inherent risks associated with hydraulic fracturing is crucial for Mexico's energy planning and decision-making process. This paper draws lessons from the recent 'shale boom’ in the US, and it analyzes and summarizes the environmental, social, economic, and community impacts that Mexico should be aware of as its nascent shale industry develops. The analysis seeks to inform mainly Mexican policy makers, but also academics, nongovernmental organizations, and the public in general, about the main concerns regarding hydraulic fracturing activities, and the importance of regulatory enforcement and community engagement in advancing sustainability. We highlight that Mexico should only develop its unconventional resources after careful evaluation of all potential impacts and after the formulation of regulation intended for their mitigation. Furthermore, using the US as a case study, we argue that development of unconventional oil and gas resources in Mexico could lead to a short-term boom rather than to a dependable and sustainable long-term energy supply. Our analysis concludes with a set of recommendations for Mexico, featuring best practices that could be used to attenuate and address some of the impacts likely to emerge from shale oil and gas development.

Sensor networks, information and communication technologies, and advances in behavioral science can allow for the design and implementation of inclusive information and automation systems for ongoing low-carbon transitions. Here, we present results of the first randomized pilot providing tandem behavioral energy efficiency and flexible demand services through the use of distributed sensor networks in Latin America (Managua, Nicaragua). We show that the houses and micro-enterprises randomly assigned to the intervention reduced their energy consumption by nine percent relative to the control group, and participated at length in peak-shaving flexible demand events (≥80% of events). Identified social co-benefits included increased energy literacy, financial management and user empowerment, and find that improved access to energy information was more important than cash when incentivizing project participation with a high user willingness to pay. Several challenges may hinder the success of smart systems in resource constrained environments, including temporal and financial scarcity at the household level, lack of institutional support, and a panoply of top-down misaligned incentives. We document the multiple barriers to scale flexible demand and energy efficiency strategies, including bottom-up (e.g., appliance financing) and top-down (e.g., decoupling) challenges and discuss ways to overcome them. As more low, low-middle income countries transition away from fossil fuels, the use of sensor networks and information and communication technologies for building smart and inclusive smart systems will become increasingly necessary and attractive.

The global carbon emissions budget over the next decades depends critically on the choices made by fast-growing emerging economies. Few studies exist, however, that develop country-specific energy system integration insights that can inform emerging economies in this decision-making process. High spatial- and temporal-resolution power system planning is central to evaluating decarbonization scenarios, but obtaining the required data and models can be cost prohibitive, especially for researchers in low, lower-middle income economies. Here, we use Nicaragua as a case study to highlight the importance of high-resolution open access data and modeling platforms to evaluate fuel-switching strategies and their resulting cost of power under realistic technology, policy, and cost scenarios (2014-2030). Our results suggest that Nicaragua could cost-effectively achieve a low-carbon grid (≥80%, based on non-large hydro renewable energy generation) by 2030 while also pursuing multiple development objectives. Regional cooperation (balancing) enables the highest wind and solar generation (18% and 3% by 2030, respectively), at the least cost (US$127 MWh-1). Potentially risky resources (geothermal and hydropower) raise system costs but do not significantly hinder decarbonization. Oil price sensitivity scenarios suggest renewable energy to be a more cost-effective long-term investment than fuel oil, even under the assumption of prevailing cheap oil prices. Nicaragua's options illustrate the opportunities and challenges of power system decarbonization for emerging economies, and the key role that open access data and modeling platforms can play in helping develop low-carbon transition pathways.