Modeling Epidemics: A Primer and Numerus Software Implementation
- Author(s): Getz, Wayne
- Salter, Richard
- Muellerklein, Oliver
- Yoon, Hyun
- Tallam, Krti
- et al.
Published Web Locationhttps://doi.org/10.1101/191601
Abstract Epidemiological models are dominated by SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) dynamical systems formulations and their elaborations. These formulations can be continuous or discrete, deterministic or stochastic, or spatially homogeneous or heterogeneous, the latter often embracing a network formulation. Here we review the continuous and discrete deterministic and discrete stochastic formulations of the SEIR dynamical systems models, and we outline how they can be easily and rapidly constructed using the Numerus Model Builder, a graphically-driven coding platform. We also demonstrate how to extend these models to a metapopulation setting using both the Numerus Model Builder network and geographical mapping tools.