UC Davis

Leptospirosis is a life-threatening, zoonotic disease with various clinical presentations, including renal injury, hepatic injury, pancreatitis, and pulmonary hemorrhage. With prompt recognition of the disease and treatment, 90% of infected dogs have a positive outcome. Therefore, rapid, early diagnosis of leptospirosis is crucial. Testing for Leptospira-specific serum antibodies using the microscopic agglutination test (MAT) lacks sensitivity early in the disease process, and diagnosis can take >2 wk because of the need to demonstrate a rise in titer. We applied machine-learning algorithms to clinical variables from the first day of hospitalization to create machine-learning prediction models (MLMs). The models incorporated patient signalment, clinicopathologic data (CBC, serum chemistry profile, and urinalysis = blood work [BW] model), with or without a MAT titer obtained at patient intake (=BW + MAT model). The models were trained with data from 91 dogs with confirmed leptospirosis and 322 dogs without leptospirosis. Once trained, the models were tested with a cohort of dogs not included in the model training (9 leptospirosis-positive and 44 leptospirosis-negative dogs), and performance was assessed. Both models predicted leptospirosis in the test set with 100% sensitivity (95% CI: 70.1-100%). Specificity was 90.9% (95% CI: 78.8-96.4%) and 93.2% (95% CI: 81.8-97.7%) for the BW and BW + MAT models, respectively. Our MLMs outperformed traditional acute serologic screening and can provide accurate early screening for the probable diagnosis of leptospirosis in dogs.