UCLA

When searching for a solution to a problem, having a theory—an underlying causal structure that explains outcomes as a consequence of antecedents and that allows for the prediction of potential consequences of combinations of choices not yet tried—changes the way in which people explore the solution space. Whether a theory proves useful to search, however, depends not just on its predictive precision. This essay argues that the internal structures of theories—their size, complexity, the extent of their elaboration, and the confidence that their users have in the assumptions—also influences how people search for solutions and the efficiency of their search processes. It offers several conjectures about how theory and theory structure influence search and about which types of theories prove most useful to success.