UC Santa Barbara

This dissertation explores the relationship between public policy, demographic change, and politics. It is split between three papers, each exploring a different question on these topics. The first paper examines the impact that electoral systems have on minority representation in local government. To do so, I leverage the California Voting Rights Act (2001) to show that the design of local electoral institutions can have a dramatic impact on minority representation on city council. As I show, district-based electoral systems achieve higher levels of minority representation in local elected office. However, I also show that they do not -- necessarily -- make city councils more demographically representative of the cities they serve. Nonetheless, they do increase representation for traditionally marginalized demographic groups.

The second paper evaluates the impact of the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) on the political geography of Los Angeles. HOLC was a New Deal program created to stabilize the housing market during the late 1930s. As part of the program, risk assessment maps were created in cities across the United States. The maps assigned loan default risk scores to neighborhoods within these cities, and they are often credited with institutionalizing the practice of "redlining". I examine the impact that these maps had on the political development of Los Angeles. As I show, HOLC had a lasting impact on the political trajectory of the area, but in surprising ways. Desirable, high-grade, neighborhoods experienced a larger over-time increase in support for Democrats, despite the fact that they were Whiter, wealthier, and home to business and corporate leaders. The findings make clear that public policy can have lasting impacts on the developmental trajectory of geographic areas. They also suggest that an area's political geography is not a simple artifact of its demographic and socioeconomic makeup.

The final paper examines the effect that Black migration during the 20th Century had on elite ideology and voting behavior. The Great Migration was, perhaps, the single largest demographic event in American history. Millions of Black people left the South for the North, Midwest, and West. As a result, the demographic composition of these areas changed dramatically. Traditionally White electorates experienced a sudden influx of Black migrants, and elected officials were faced with the task of incorporating this group into their political schema. As I show, Black migration is associated with a leftward shift in elite ideology. Additionally, it is positively associated with the probability that congressional representative votes in favor of civil rights legislation. The results speak to two themes. First, the adoption of pro-civil rights policies in the early-to-mid 20th Century may have occurred because of electoral incentives to appeal to a new bloc of Black voters. Second, large and fundamental shifts to an electorate's demographic composition can have a drastic impact on its political development decades later.

The unifying theme across all papers is that there is a fundamental, and dynamic, relationship between politics, policy, and demography. As demography changes, the voters entering or exiting an electorate may look different from those who are already in it, or those who remain in it. As was the case in California, this may create a situation where elected officials are not descriptively representative of those they serve. As the Great Migration tells us, it may also force elected officials to adopt policy stances that are in greater alignment with the burgeoning core of their electorate. Conversely, large public policies may fundamentally alter the demographic and socioeconomic composition of an area, setting the stage for large-scale political change later on. All told, the relationship between these forces is dynamic and ever-evolving. And, as this dissertation makes clear, the relationship should be given greater attention.