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Simulating Political Polarization as a Function of Uncertain Inference and Signaling of Moral Values

Abstract

Political polarization is driven by many factors, but the role of moral values as both a signal of political identity and a source of internal conflict is understudied. We report an agent-based computational model of polarization that fills this gap. Agents seek to differentiate in- and outgroup neighbors with a slight preference for the former. However, they must do so by inferring neighbors’ identities from visible but transient moral signals. Moreover, agents experience conflicts within their own values, and if difficult to resolve internally, can copy the values of their ingroup or disengage (i.e., act immorally). Results show that liberals form larger, more homogeneous clusters, are happier, and experience less moral conflict than conservatives. Conservatives experience more and higher levels of conflict and morally disengage significantly more often than liberals.

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