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Development and validation of a prediction model for the risk of developing febrile neutropenia in the first cycle of chemotherapy among elderly patients with breast, lung, colorectal, and prostate cancer.

  • Author(s): Hosmer, Wylie
  • Malin, Jennifer
  • Wong, Mitchell
  • et al.


Current guidelines recommend prophylactic use of granulocyte-colony stimulating factors (G-CSF) when febrile neutropenia (FN) risk is greater than 20%. Advanced age is a risk factor for FN; however, little is known about the impact of other factors on the incidence of FN in an older population.

Patients and methods

We analyzed SEER-Medicare data (1994-2005) to develop and validate a prediction model for hospitalization with fever, infection, or neutropenia occurring after chemotherapy initiation for patients with breast, colorectal, prostate, and lung cancer.


In multivariate analysis (N = 58,053) independent predictors of FN included advanced stage at diagnosis [stage 2 (OR 1.29; 95% CI: 1.09-1.53), stage 3 (1.38; 95% CI: 1.19-1.60), and stage 4 (1.57; 95% CI: 1.35-1.83)], number of associated comorbid conditions [one condition (1.13; 95% CI: 1.02-1.28), two conditions (1.39; 95% CI: 1.22-1.57), and three or more conditions (1.81; 95% CI: 1.61-2.04)], receipt of myelosuppressive chemotherapy (1.11; 95% CI: 0.94-1.32), and receipt of chemotherapy within 1 month of diagnosis [1 to 3 months (0.70; 95% CI: 0.62-0.80) and greater than 3 months (0.63; 95% CI: 0.55-0.73)].


We created a prediction model for febrile neutropenia with first cycle of chemotherapy in a large population of elderly patients with common malignancies.

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