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Using Prediction Market Data to Illustrate Undergraduate Probability

Published Web Location

https://doi.org/10.4169/amer.math.monthly.120.07.583
Abstract

Prediction markets provide a rare setting, where results of mathematical probability theory can be related to events of real-world interest and where theory can be compared to data. The paper discusses two simple mathematical results - the halftime price principle and the serious candidates principle - and corresponding data from baseball and the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination race. © The Mathematical Association of America.

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