Using prediction market data to illustrate undergraduate probability
- Author(s): Aldous, DJ
- et al.
Published Web Locationhttps://doi.org/10.4169/amer.math.monthly.120.07.583
Prediction markets provide a rare setting, where results of mathematical probability theory can be related to events of real-world interest and where theory can be compared to data. The paper discusses two simple mathematical results - the halftime price principle and the serious candidates principle - and corresponding data from baseball and the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination race. © The Mathematical Association of America.
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