UCLA

Several models have been developed to predict stroke outcomes (e.g., stroke mortality, patient dependence, etc.) in recent decades. However, there is little discussion regarding the problem of between-class imbalance in stroke datasets, which leads to prediction bias and decreased performance. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique to overcome such problems. We also compare state of the art machine learning methods and construct a six-variable support vector machine (SVM) model to predict stroke mortality at discharge. Finally, we discuss how the identification of a reduced feature set allowed us to identify additional cases in our research database for validation testing. Our classifier achieved a c-statistic of 0.865 on the cross-validated dataset, demonstrating good classification performance using a reduced set of variables.