Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in geological formations is considered as a promising option that could limit CO2 emissions from human activities into the atmosphere. However, there is a risk that pressure buildup inside the storage formation can induce slip along preexisting faults and create seismic event felt by the population. To prevent this to happen a geomechanical fault stability analysis should be performed, considering uncertainties of input parameters. In this paper, we investigate how the distribution of the coefficient of friction and the applied frictional law could influence the assessment of fault stability and the characteristics of potential injection-induced seismic events. Our modelling study is based on a hypothetical industrial-scale carbon sequestration project located in the Southern San Joaquin Basin in California, USA, where the stability on a major (25 km long) fault that bounds the sequestration site is assessed during 50 years of CO2 injection. We conduct nine simulations in which the distributions of the coefficients of static and dynamic friction are changed to simulate a hardening and softening phase before and during rupture. Our main findings are: (i) variations in friction along the fault have an important effect on the predicted seismic activity, with maximum magnitude ranging from 1.88 to 5.88 and number of seismic events ranging from 338 to 3272; (ii) the extreme values of the coefficient of friction (lowest and highest) present along the rupture area control how much stress is accumulated before rupture; and (iii) an argillaceous caprock can prevent the development of large magnitude seismic events but favor the occurrence of a large number of smaller events.