UC Berkeley

China’s power sector accounts for 25% of the world coal consumption–fully about 13% of total global carbon emissions from fossil fuel. Decarbonizing China’s power sector will shape how the country and to a large extent the world uses energy and addresses pollution and climate change. Combining methods of GIS modeling and wind and solar capacity factor simulation, this study utilized 200 representative locations each independently for wind and solar, with 10 years of hourly wind speed and solar irradiation data to investigate provincial capacity and output potentials from 2001 to 2010, and to build wind and solar availability profiles. This study then examined the implications of the solar and wind variability and availability in the context of an overall energy strategy for China by using a system optimization model: SWITCH-China to analyze the feasibility, costs and benefits of China’s clean power transition under three key policy scenarios: Reference Scenario, Low Cost Renewable Scenario, and Carbon Cap Scenario. By optimizing capacity expansion and hourly generation dispatch simultaneously, SWITCH-China is uniquely suited to explore both the value of and synergies among various power system technology options, providing policymakers and industry leaders with important information about the optimal development of the electricity grid. China’s power sector is in the midst of fast development, and today’s investment decisions will have a large impact on the country’s ability to achieve its environmental and carbon mitigation goals. Concerted actions are needed to enable such a transition, including introducing a meaningful carbon price, coordinating the investment decisions, and building the necessary infrastructure for moving energy around.