UC Santa Barbara

Across contractional orogens, the equivalency between decadal convergence rates from geodetic GPS data and geologic shortening rates at time scales of thousands or millions of years has rarely been documented. Here, we present an example from the northern margin of Chinese Pamir, where the Main Pamir Thrust is tectonically quiescent, and recent deformation is concentrated on the Pamir Frontal Thrust (PFT). Based on dated and faulted fluvial terraces, magnetostratigraphy, and mapping, the horizontal shortening rate of the PFT is ∼6-7 mm/a at time scales of both ∼18.4 ka and ∼0.35 Ma, comparable to the geodetic rate of ∼6-9 mm/a across the same zone, implying that modern geodetic rates are a reasonable proxy for geologic rates since ∼0.35 Ma. Comparing this example with studies in other contractional orogens, we conjecture that a match or mismatch of geologic-geodetic rates typically depends on the time scale of observation, fault geometry, and fault mechanics. © 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.