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Alternative SIAR models for infectious diseases and applications in the study of non-compliance


In this paper, we use modified versions of the SIAR model for epidemics to propose two ways of understanding and quantifying the effect of non-compliance to non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the spread of an infectious disease. The SIAR model distinguishes between symptomatic infected (I) and asymptomatic infected (A) populations. One modification, which is simpler, assumes a known proportion of the population does not comply with government mandates such as quarantining and social-distancing. In a more sophisticated approach, the modified model treats non-compliant behavior as a social contagion. We theoretically explore different scenarios such as the occurrence of multiple waves of infections. Local and asymptotic analyses for both models are also provided.

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