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Bayesian general equilibrium


I introduce a general equilibrium model of non-optimizing agents that respond to aggregate variables (prices and the average demand profile of agent types) by putting a “prior” on their demand. An interim equilibrium is defined by the posterior demand distribution of agent types conditional on market clearing. A Bayesian general equilibrium (BGE) is an interim equilibrium such that aggregate variables are correctly anticipated. Under weak conditions, I prove the existence and the informational efficiency of BGE. I discuss the conditions under which the set of Bayesian and Walrasian equilibria coincide and show that the Walrasian equilibrium arises from a large class of non-optimizing behavior.

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