UC Irvine

Purpose

Serum thymidine kinase 1 (sTK1) activity is associated with poor prognosis in metastatic breast cancer (MBC). We assessed the prognostic effect of sTK1 in patients with hormone receptor-positive MBC treated on a prospective randomized trial of anastrozole (A) versus A plus fulvestrant (A + F).

Patients and methods

sTK1 was assessed in 1,726 serums [baseline (BL), cycles 2, 3, 4, and 7] using the DiviTum assay. A prespecified cutoff of ≥200 Du/L was considered high. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier, log-rank tests, and Cox regression.

Results

BL sTK1 was elevated in 171 (40%) of 432 patients. Patients with high versus low BL sTK1 had significantly worse PFS [median 11.2 vs. 17.3 months, HR = 1.76; 95% confidence interval (CI; 1.43-2.16); P < 0.0001] and OS [median 30 vs. 58 months, HR = 2.38; 95% CI (1.91-2.98); P < 0.0001]. OS was significantly better for patients with high sTK1 who did not have prior adjuvant tamoxifen and who received A + F versus A alone [median 46 vs. 21 months, HR = 0.58; 95% CI (0.38-0.87); P = 0.0087]. Patients with low sTK1 had no difference in outcomes by therapy (P = 0.44). At serial timepoints, high versus low sTK1 had significantly worse subsequent PFS and OS [at cycle 2: PFS HR = 1.70, 95% CI (1.34-2.17); P < 0.0001, OS HR = 2.51, 95% CI (1.93-3.26); P < 0.0001].

Conclusions

High sTK1 at BL and subsequent timepoints is associated with worse prognosis in patients with MBC starting first-line endocrine therapy (ET). Patients with low sTK1 at BL have comparable outcomes on single-agent or combination ET.