UCLA

This paper examines the transmission properties of the COVID-19 virus in Taipei from May 2021 to April 2022. Taipei, being a densely populated city, is an easy target for a highly transmissible virus such as COVID-19. However, the Taiwanese government set up strict public health policies that include a monitoring system and quarantine to prevent the outbreak that was effective in controlling the virus during the peak of infection. Incorporating data collected and maintained by the g0v community, this study dive into the temporal and spatial properties of the virus in Taipei by utilizing the Hawkes Process model. Three variations of the models are fitted in an attempt to find out the most fitting model for the virus data. In conclusion, we found out that using a normal distribution in modeling time and exponential distribution in distance of event occurrence is a suitable way of modeling the COVID-19 spread in Taipei.