On the revision of probabilistic beliefs using uncertain evidence
Published Web Locationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.artint.2004.09.005
We revisit the problem of revising probabilistic beliefs using uncertain evidence, and report results on several major issues relating to this problem: How should one specify uncertain evidence? How should one revise a probability distribution? How should one interpret informal evidential statements? Should, and do, iterated belief revisions commute? And what guarantees can be offered on the amount of belief change induced by a particular revision? Our discussion is focused on two main methods for probabilistic revision: Jeffrey's rule of probability kinematics and Pearl's method of virtual evidence, where we analyze and unify these methods from the perspective of the questions posed above.