Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

Consider the following causal explanation: The ball wentthrough the goal because the defender didn’t block it. Thereare at least two problems with citing omissions as causal ex-planations. First, how do we choose the relevant candidateomission (e.g. why the defender and not the goalkeeper). Sec-ond, how do we determine what would have happened in therelevant counterfactual situation (i.e. maybe the shot wouldstill have gone through the goal even if it had been blocked).In this paper, we extend the counterfactual simulation model(CSM) of causal judgment (Gerstenberg, Goodman, Lagnado,& Tenenbaum, 2014) to handle the second problem. In two ex-periments, we show how people’s causal model of the situationaffects their causal judgments via influencing what counterfac-tuals they consider. Omissions are considered causes to theextent that the outcome in the relevant counterfactual situationwould have been different from what it actually was.