UC Davis

Recent events have forced building managers to examine energy use during vacant periods and revealed miscellaneous electrical loads (MELs) as an opportunity for savings. This paper addresses a key step in unlocking these savings, specifically the reliable identification of when a building is vacant. A Vacancy Inference Engine (VIE), using sensor fusion, was developed to identify vacant periods based on outputs from common sensors, historical building vacancy patterns, and expert knowledge. The VIE calculates the confidence that a building is vacant, allowing building managers to balance the capture of energy savings with the possibility of complaints due to powering down MELs. The VIE has the advantage over logistic regression and other models in that it does not require a full set of ground truth for the training process. The VIE successfully predicted vacancy in an office building using input data streams of instantaneous electricity demand, indoor carbon dioxide concentrations, and the number of active Wi-Fi connections. The VIE's ability to predict vacancy was compared to that of logistic regression using a metric based on the Complaint Opportunity Rate and found to be nearly identical (0.94 versus 0.95, respectively).